There are two superb WTA Cincinnati semifinals scheduled for Sunday. Jessica Pegula hopes to continue her excellent form against Paula Badosa, and there is a blockbuster encounter between French Open champion Iga Swiatek and Australian Open winner Aryna Sabalenka. As always, we at LWOT give our predictions and analysis for both matches. But which two players do you think will reach the final?

WTA Cincinnati Semifinal Predictions

Jessica Pegula vs Paula Badosa

Head-to-head: Pegula 2-0 Badosa

These two have played exceptionally during the North American swing so far. Badosa won her first title in over two years at the Citi DC Open, while Pegula defended her WTA-1000 crown at the National Bank Open. The American had to work much harder to reach the semifinal, though. She battled through in over three hours against 2021 US Open runner-up Leylah Fernandez. By contrast, Badosa comprehensively defeated Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and has yet to drop a set in Cincinnati.

The head-to-head is slightly misleading. Badosa retired in the first set of their first meeting, and the second was last year when the Spaniard struggled. The former world No. 2 presents a much stiffer challenge on this occasion. Pegula’s flat shots and strong return present a challenging matchup for Badosa, and the home favorite will hope those skills are enough to seal back-to-back WTA-1000 finals.

However, Badosa is narrowly favored to triumph. Although Pegula is one of the fittest players on the WTA Tour, playing the day after such a long quarterfinal will not be easy. Badosa is also thriving in the fast conditions in Cincinnati. Even a good defensive player like Pegula will struggle to manage her powerful hitting at its best.
Prediction: Badosa in 3

Iga Swiatek vs Aryna Sabalenka

Head-to-head: Swiatek 8-3 Sabalenka

Swiatek had a tough battle against Mirra Andreeva in the last round, eventually prevailing 4-6, 6-3, 7-5. Sabalenka did not drop a set in her opening three matches. The pair have met twice on clay this year. Swiatek triumphed in one of the greatest WTA-1000 finals ever in Madrid before winning far more comfortably in Rome two weeks later.

The conditions could play a significant role in this matchup. Two of Sabalenka’s victories against the world No. 1 were on fast hard courts, and the other was in Madrid last year, which is the quickest clay court on the WTA Tour. The courts in Cincinnati are playing very quickly, favoring Sabalenka. However, it has also been very windy, which helps Swiatek’s game more due to the topspin she plays with.

The forecast indicates it will be less windy on Sunday. Although this has been a tough matchup for Sabalenka overall, I make her a slight favorite in the high-speed conditions in Cincinnati. The Belarusian has also consistently played better tennis at the tournament so far. Swiatek must defend better than she did against Andreeva to have a chance of reaching the final.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 3

Main Photo Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports