Wisconsin football vs USC odds: spread, money line, over/under, predictions

Posted by Admin September 27, 2024 Football

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The Wisconsin football team is again a significant underdog as it faces another big test on its 2024 schedule.

Two weeks after getting blown out at home by national title contender Alabama, the Badgers will play their first game away from Camp Randall Stadium when they head out west for a first-of-its-kind Big Ten opener against the University of Southern California on Saturday. Kickoff is set for 2:30 p.m. at the L.A. Memorial Coliseum.

Both teams enter the matchup with 2-1 records but the oddsmakers heavily favor USC. The Trojans are a more than two-touchdown favorite.

USC, one of four newcomers to the Big Ten in 2024 from the old Pac 12 Conference, suffered its first loss of the season on the road at Michigan last week, 27-24, thanks to its inability to stop the run.

Wisconsin, which is turning to redshirt sophomore Braedyn Locke at quarterback after Tyler Van Dyke suffered a season-ending injury against the Crimson Tide, had a week off to prepare for the Trojans.

Here’s more on the betting odds for the Wisconsin-USC game as of Friday afternoon. Betting odds are courtesy of BetMGM:

Wisconsin vs USC odds: spread, money line, total points

Spread: Wisconsin +15.5

Money line: USC -700, Wisconsin +500

Total points: 51.5

Wisconsin hasn’t covered the spread in its first three games as either a favorite or underdog.

USC is 2-1 against the spread this season. It won its season opener over LSU, 27-20, as an underdog, then easily covered the 28.5-point spread in its 48-0 win over Utah State at home. But as a 4.5-point favorite over Michigan last week on the road, it fell 27-24.

Wisconsin vs USC football: ESPN predictor model

ESPN’s predictor model doesn’t like the Badgers’ chances in their Big Ten opener. Using its analytics system, ESPN has the Badgers with just a 12.3% chance of winning.

Wisconsin vs USC stats

Will this game reach the 51.5-point total?

Here’s a closer look at the scoring offenses and defenses for Wisconsin and USC through the first three games and more about each team:

USC is averaging 33.0 points per game, tied for 45th in the Football Bowl Subdivision. Wisconsin’s 21.7 points per game is tied with Louisiana Tech and Louisiana Monroe for 109th nationally and 16th of 18 Big Ten teams. The Badgers haven’t scored 30 points in a game this season and were held to 10 against Alabama.

Expect USC to continue to rely on its passing offense. The Trojans average 318.7 passing yards per game, 12th nationally and first in the Big Ten. USC junior Miller Moss, who has replaced No. 1 draft pick Caleb Williams at quarterback in 2024, leads the offense.

Wisconsin’s passing offense, meanwhile, is still searching for the Air Raid as its 182.3 yards rank near the bottom of the FBS (104th) and Big Ten (14th).

The Badgers do have the edge in rushing offense. They’ve showed their depth in totaling 172.0 yards per game, good for eighth in the Big Ten. USC’s 138.0 rushing yards are 15th in the Big Ten.

The Trojans also have the second-worst Big Ten rushing defense, allowing 163.3 yards per game. Can Wisconsin’s running backs take advantage of USC’s weakness, like Michigan did last week when the Wolverines ran for 290 yards and three touchdowns? That will likely depend on the direction of the game and whether Wisconsin has to claw itself out of a big early hole.

But offensive coordinator Phil Longo’s game plan likely will rely on running backs Chez Mellusi, Tawee Walker, Cade Yacamelli and Jackson Acker in the team’s first game without Van Dyke.

Overall on defense, USC’s 15.67 points allowed is tied for 30th nationally, while Wisconsin has allowed 23 points per game, which is 69th.