Will Indiana basketball make the NCAA Tournament? March Madness projections, bracketology

Posted by author February 19, 2025 Basketball

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The Hoosiers have a resume good enough to be on the bubble.
Can the Hoosiers make the dance? They have plenty of options ahead but their margin for error is slim.

Increasingly, Indiana basketball‘s 2024-25 season looks destined to be defined by missed opportunities.

After an upset win midweek at Michigan State seemed to backstop a stretch of close losses (Maryland, Purdue, Michigan), IU returned home hoping to gather more momentum with a repeat performance against UCLA. Instead, the Hoosiers dropped another close one, 72-68, pushing their NCAA Tournament hopes to the cliff edge.

There are between two and three Quad 1 opportunities left on the schedule, with Ohio State teetering on the edge of dropping into Quad 2. But IU probably needs a win Sunday against Purdue to regain control of its own tournament destiny.

Sunday’s rivalry renewal shapes up as the Hoosiers’ most important game of the season.

What is NET ranking? How is men’s college basketball NET ranking determined?

.A team’s victories are assigned values from Quad 1 to Quad 4, based on the opponent’s NET ranking and the location of the game. Those rankings remain fluid up through Selection Sunday, with teams rising and falling in the NET rankings and potentially moving in and out of quadrants.

Quad 1: Home vs. NET 1-30, neutral 1-50 or away 1-75
Quad 2: Home vs. 31-75, neutral 51-100 or away 76-135
Quad 3: Home 76-160, neutral 101-200 or away 135-240
Quad 4: Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, away 241 or lower

Indiana men’s basketball’s NCAA tournament resume for March Madness

NET ranking: 57

Quad 1 record: 2-11

Quad 2 record: 3-0

Quad 3 record: 6-0

Quad 4 record: 4-0

Bracketology projections for Purdue men’s basketball

USA TODAY (updated Feb. 17): Not mentioned.

On3Sports (updated Feb. 16): Not mentioned.

Delphi Bracketology (updated Feb. 14): First four out.

Bracket Matrix (daily aggregation of ~100 brackets): Not in the field. Included in four of 97 brackets.

How IU men’s basketball results affected its March Madness resume last week

Feb. 11 road win at Michigan State (No. 21 NET): Indiana’s best win of the season, by far, both in terms of performance and in terms of value. The Hoosiers ground out key defensive possessions, sank pressure free throws and made Tom Izzo wait a few more days to break Bob Knight’s all-time wins record. In so doing, they breathed life into their NCAA tournament resume for the season’s home stretch.

Feb. 14 home loss to UCLA (No. 23 NET): Another of those missed opportunities. IU rarely led but spent most of the second half pushing the Bruins, without ever finding a breakthrough. Despite not allowing a single UCLA player to score more than 12 points, Indiana’s 7-of-29 performance from behind the 3-point line epitomized a frustrating evening for Mike Woodson’s team. The Hoosiers cannot afford to miss any more of these opportunities.

How upcoming games could help IU men’s basketball’s March Madness resume

Sunday vs. Purdue (No. 13 NET): For reasons both tangible and intangible, Sunday feels like high noon for IU’s postseason hopes. The Hoosiers badly need Quad 1 wins, particularly with the Penn State win at the Palestra sinking down to Quad 2. They need quality for an NCAA Tournament resume sorely lacking it. And they need to feel a sense of momentum heading into a four-game close to the season that right now contains only one guaranteed Q1 (at Oregon) and might require Indiana to win four out of four.

Lose to Purdue — a team the Hoosiers had every chance to beat three weeks ago — and all margin for error is gone for the rest of the season, if it even still existed to begin with.

Indiana men’s basketball’s remaining schedule

Date	Opponent (NET ranking, Quadrant)	Location
Sunday	Purdue (13, Quad 1)	Bloomington, Ind.
Feb. 26	Penn State (78, Quad 3)	Bloomington, Ind.
March 1	Washington (93, Quad 2)	Seattle
March 4	Oregon (31, Quad 1)	Eugene, Ore.
March 8	Ohio State (28, Quad 1)	Bloomington, Ind.