NEW YORK — On paper, it’s about as bad a matchup as you’ll find this time of year. A home run-prone left-hander starting against a team that punishes lefties in one of baseball’s most homer-happy ballparks. The New York Yankees could have started righty Clarke Schmidt against the Cleveland Guardians in Game 1 of the ALCS on Monday. Instead, they’ll give the ball to southpaw Carlos Rodón, even with the decks stacked against him.

“There was debate, but it felt like Carlos was the guy … He’s a really good pitcher,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Sunday about the decision to start Rodón over Schmidt.

Rodón came out throwing grenades in his ALDS Game 2 start against the Kansas City Royals, striking out all three batters on 12 pitches in the first inning. It might’ve been his most dominant inning as a Yankee. And yet, Rodón failed to complete four innings. Salvador Perez got to him for a game-tying solo homer leading off the fourth, then Kansas City strung together four more hits in the inning to put three more runs on the board. Rodón allowed three hits in two-strike counts that inning.

“If I look back at that start, the first three innings went pretty well. I mean, my stuff was there. It was pretty electric,” Rodón said about his ALDS start. “…We had a one-run lead and I wanted to shut down that inning, and (Perez) made a good swing and it kind of brought me out of focus just a tick. I didn’t want to give up that run there, and I knew that at-bat was important and that game went tied. It’s kind of one of those things when I look back, just knowing to keep that focus and I guess channel that energy a little bit better so the focus stays on the field.”

Rodón’s first season as a Yankee in 2023 was a disaster. He had forearm, back, and hamstring injuries, and pitched to a 6.85 ERA in the 14 starts he did make. In his final start, Rodón surrendered eight runs and did not record an out. He reported to spring training much more trim this year, stayed healthy, and gave the Yankees 32 starts and 174 1/3 innings with a 3.96 ERA and 195 strikeouts. That includes a 2.91 ERA in 12 starts after the All-Star break. Worth his $162 million contract? No, not really, but a quality pitcher.

The facts do not lie though. Rodón allowed 31 home runs this season, second most in baseball, and Yankee Stadium inflates home runs to 119% the league average, per Statcast. That’s the third highest home run park factor in baseball. Also, the Guardians crush lefties. They want to see a lefty on the mound seven days a week and twice on Sunday.

The Guardians were one of the best offenses against lefties during the regular season and one of the worst against righties. David Fry and hypothetical ALDS MVP Lane Thomas brutalize lefties, Jhonkensy Noel really gets to his power against lefties, and José Ramírez just had his best season against lefties. Cleveland struggles to hold its own against righties. They are in their element against lefties. It almost feels like the Yankees are doing the Guardians a favor by starting Rodón in Game 1, doesn’t it?

New York could have started Schmidt in Game 1 and pushed Rodón back to Game 3 at Progressive Field (Gerrit Cole is lined up to start Game 2), and into the more pitcher-friendly ballpark. Also, that would have pushed Rodón’s second ALCS start back to Game 7, which might not even be played. Instead, the Game 1 start means Rodón’s second ALCS start will come in Game 5, if necessary. Letting the homer-prone lefty starter twice in the first five games of a best-of-seven seems unwise, but that’s what will happen.

Regardless of the logic behind it, the Game 1 start will be Rodón’s chance to reward the Yankees’ faith in him. He stunk in 2023, was good but not great in 2024, and then let things unravel in ALDS Game 2. His starts are still met with quite a bit of skepticism from a fan base that watched small things blow up into bad innings on more than a few occasions this year. Every postseason round is a clean slate. Game 1 is an opportunity for Rodón to be the difference-maker the Yankees signed him to be.

“Game 1 just sets the tone,” Rodón said Sunday. “Looking forward to being out there again, feeling the energy, and just giving my team the best chance to win.”