Why SEC analyst Matt Stinchcomb says Georgia is CFP elimination game for Tennessee football

Posted by Admin November 11, 2024 Football

Saturday’s road matchup against Georgia is a College Football Playoff elimination game for Tennessee football, according to SEC Network analyst Matt Stinchcomb.

It’s also an elimination game for the No. 3 Bulldogs (7-2, 5-2 SEC), who have two losses; the Vols have just one. But Stinchcomb believes No. 7 Tennessee (8-1, 5-1) has to leave Athens with a win to keep its CFP hopes solidly alive based off the first CFP Top 25 rankings and the way the SEC has played out.

“Depending on what scenario unfolds within this conference, there is almost zero margin for error for the University of Tennessee Volunteers,” Stinchcomb said Monday at the Knoxville Quarterback Club.

If the Vols lose Saturday, they still have a chance to make the CFP and SEC title game, though the latter is unlikely. If Tennessee finishes 10-2 and is fighting for one of the seven at-large spots, it has a decent chance at making the CFP.

But Stinchcomb believes the odds aren’t in the Vols’ favor because of how the CFP selection committee ranked the Big Ten in its first set of rankings.

Before those rankings came out, Stinchcomb would have thought the Vols could suffer a second loss and be safe. But with how high Penn State (No. 6) and Indiana (No. 8) were ranked, he’s not sure anymore.

“Penn State will likely finish the season at 11-1. Who have they beat?” Stinchcomb said. “Nobody. Nobody, but the committee loves the Big Ten. And because of that, it’s not the other SEC teams that would crowd a Tennessee, potentially, out as a two-loss team. It’s this Big Ten that makes it super crowded.”

There are four Big Ten teams in the top eight of the initial CFP Top 25 ranking, which was released last week, with Oregon and Ohio State at No. 1 and No. 2, respectively. That gives the ranked Big Ten teams “a lot of room for error,” Stinchcomb said, especially with Oregon being undefeated.

Indiana is a Big Ten team that could steal Tennessee’s spot in the playoffs. The Hoosiers are 10-0 but their strength of schedule ranks No. 100 in the nation. If they lose to Ohio State, on Nov. 23, they will be a one-loss team without a single ranked win. If Tennessee becomes a two-loss team with one ranked win, which would the committee choose?

“Does the committee say, ‘Well, we’d rather have this 11-1 Cinderella story in the College Football Playoff?’ That’s hazardous, and that’s why it makes it that much more important this Saturday,” Stinchcomb said.

The good news for Tennessee, though, is that Georgia has not been playing its best football.

Stinchcomb didn’t mince words talking about his alma mater, where he was a consensus first-team All-American in 1998. He criticized quarterback Carson Beck’s play this season (12 interceptions) and blasted the offensive line’s performance in the upset loss Ole Miss last week.

Georgia’s defense wasn’t spared, either, after its performance the past two weeks against a third-string quarterback at Florida and against Ole Miss, which was without its top two offensive weapons. The Bulldogs’ defense didn’t give up just points — it gave up explosive plays.

“They’re running around out there like, ah, maybe I’ll cover, maybe I won’t,” Stinchcomb said. “Wide-open receivers, backside of the backfield. Linebackers pretending to be safeties. Safeties pretending to be spectators. Guys just running around, wide open. It’s scary from a certain perspective — encouraging, maybe, from another.”

Cora Hall covers University of Tennessee women’s athletics. Email her atcora.hall@knoxnews.com and follow her on Twitter @corahalll. If you enjoy Cora’s coverage, consider a digital subscription that allows you to access all of it.