BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – College football has reached conference championship game weekend. Starting Friday, nine FBS conference championship games will be played.

From Indiana’s point of view, the Hoosiers are currently No. 9 in the rankings, only three conference championship games have relevance to their fate: the Big Ten (Penn State-Oregon, 8 p.m. ET Saturday), SEC (Georgia-Texas, 4 p.m. ET Saturday) and ACC (Clemson-SMU, 8 p.m. ET Saturday) championship games – and the ACC only because it shuffles the rankings in a way that is hard to explain succinctly without their inclusion.

The Mountain West (UNLV-Boise State, 8 p.m. ET Friday) and Big 12 (Iowa State-Arizona State, Noon ET Saturday) championship games will help determine the field, but one team or the other is going to get either the last or second-last of the top four seeds as the third or fourth-best conference champion or the No. 12 seed as the fifth-best conference champion.

Neither league will get more than one team in, and neither representative will influence Indiana’s seed in the bracket.

With three conference championship games to consider, there are eight possible outcomes that will set the path for the Hoosiers after Saturday’s games are finished. That’s the easy part.

The hard part is reading what the College Football Playoff committee will do after those conference championship games play out.

How far will losing conference championship teams drop in the ranking? How much would a lower-ranked team rise if they win a conference championship game? How much will the victory margins influence the rankings?

We don’t know the answers, but we can make an informed prediction on what could happen. So here’s our stab at the eight possible outcomes from the games that are important to Indiana’s fate and how they could impact the Hoosiers’ path.

However, this is just an educated guess. The whims of the CFP committee will carry the day when the field is announced at noon ET on Sunday.

One very important reminder: rankings do not equate to seeds in the bracket. Since the top four seeds go to the top four conference champions regardless of ranking, the rankings for the at-large teams do not match what their seed is. That is why Indiana’s ranking and seed are different in these scenarios. 

Scenario 1

Winners: Oregon, Texas, SMU

Overview: In any Oregon winning scenario, the margin of the Ducks’ victory might matter to the Hoosiers, because it could affect how far Penn State would drop in the rankings by losing. So we offer three sub-scenarios.

Penn State shouldn’t drop much if they play Oregon close. It would be a close loss to a No. 1-ranked team. The Nittany Lions may not drop at all. That would lead to a scenario where Indiana might have a rematch at Ohio State.

A “normal” win for Oregon, a margin of 7-to-17 points, in combination with other results, would drop Penn State behind Ohio State, a team the Nittany Lions lost to, but probably not much further. It would change Indiana’s opponent to Penn State.

A big Oregon win? Hard to guess how far the committee would drop the Nittany Lions. We’ll include sub-scenarios for whether Penn State stays above or drops below Indiana in the rankings because it changes Indiana’s opponent both ways.

Quick note? All eight scenarios assume Boise State wins the Mountain West championship game. Win or lose, their ranking does not influence the first-round pairings as the Broncos would get a bye. If they lose, UNLV would be the No. 12 seed and the Big 12 champion would be the No. 4 seed.

Close Oregon win

Rankings: 1. Oregon 2. Texas 3. Penn State 4. Notre Dame 5. Ohio State 6. Georgia 7. SMU 8. Tennessee 9. Indiana 10. Boise State 11. Alabama 12. Big 12 champion

Indiana’s possible first round playoff matchup: 10 Indiana at 7 Ohio State. Winner plays Texas.

Normal Oregon win

Rankings: 1. Oregon 2. Texas 3. Notre Dame 4. Ohio State 5. Penn State 6. Georgia 7. SMU 8. Tennessee 9. Indiana 10. Boise State 11. Alabama 12. Big 12 champion

Indiana’s possible first round playoff matchup: 10 Indiana at 7 Penn State. Winner plays Texas.

Big Oregon win, Penn State is seeded below Indiana

Rankings: 1. Oregon 2. Texas 3. Notre Dame 4. Ohio State 5. Georgia 6. SMU 7. Tennessee 8. Indiana 9. Penn State 10. Boise State 11. Alabama 12. Big 12 champion

Indiana’s possible first round matchup: 9 Indiana at 8 Tennessee. Winner plays Oregon.

Big Oregon win, Penn State is seeded above Indiana

Rankings: 1. Oregon 2. Texas 3. Notre Dame 4. Ohio State 5. Georgia 6. SMU 7. Tennessee 8. Penn State 9. Indiana 10. Boise State 11. Alabama 12. Big 12 champion

Indiana’s possible first round matchup: 10 Indiana at 7 Georgia. Winner plays Texas.

Scenario 2

Winners: Oregon, Texas, Clemson

Overview: All of the Scenarios 1 apply here. A Clemson win does influence the seeding, but not the potential opponents for Indiana.

In all of the Clemson winning scenarios, we’ll assume that Alabama and SMU are essentially interchangeable based on how the committee handles a SMU defeat.

Close Oregon win

Rankings: 1. Oregon 2. Texas 3. Penn State 4. Notre Dame 5. Ohio State 6. Georgia 7. Tennessee 8. Indiana 9. Boise State 10. Alabama or SMU 11. Big 12 champion 12. Clemson

Indiana’s possible first round matchup: 10 Indiana at 7 Penn State. Winner plays Texas.

Normal Oregon win

Rankings: 1. Oregon 2. Texas 3. Notre Dame 4. Ohio State 5. Penn State 6. Georgia 7. Tennessee 8. Indiana 9. Boise State 10. Alabama or SMU 11. Big 12 champion 12. Clemson

Indiana’s possible first round matchup: 10 Indiana at 7 Penn State. Winner plays Texas.

Big Oregon win, Penn State is seeded below Indiana

Rankings: 1. Oregon 2. Texas 3. Notre Dame 4. Ohio State 5. Georgia 6. Tennessee 7. Indiana 8. Penn State 9. Boise State 10. Alabama or SMU 11. Big 12 champion 12. Clemson

Indiana’s possible first round matchup: 9 Indiana at 8 Tennessee. Winner plays Oregon.

Big Oregon win, Penn State is seeded above Indiana

Rankings: 1. Oregon 2. Texas 3. Notre Dame 4. Ohio State 5. Georgia 6. Tennessee 7. Penn State 8. Indiana 9. Boise State 10. Alabama or SMU 11. Big 12 champion 12. Clemson

Indiana’s possible first round matchup: 10 Indiana at 7 Georgia. Winner plays Texas.

Scenario 3

Winners: Oregon, Georgia, Clemson

Overview: A Georgia win merely flips who Indiana would play in the Big Oregon win sub-scenario below. It would also change Indiana’s second-round opponent in several sub-scenarios.

Close Oregon win

Rankings: 1. Oregon 2. Georgia 3. Penn State 4. Notre Dame 5. Ohio State 6. Texas 7. Tennessee 8. Indiana 9. Boise State 10. Alabama or SMU 11. Big 12 champion 12. Clemson

Indiana’s possible first round matchup: 10 Indiana at 7 Ohio State. Winner plays Georgia.

Normal Oregon win

Rankings: 1. Oregon 2. Georgia 3. Notre Dame 4. Ohio State 5. Penn State 6. Texas 7. Tennessee 8. Indiana 9. Boise State 10. Alabama or SMU 11. Big 12 champion 12. Clemson

Indiana’s possible first round matchup: 10 Indiana at 7 Penn State. Winner plays Georgia.

Big Oregon win, Penn State is seeded below Indiana

Rankings: 1. Oregon 2. Georgia 3. Notre Dame 4. Ohio State 5. Texas 6. Tennessee 7. Indiana 8. Penn State 9. Boise State 10. Alabama or SMU 11. Big 12 champion

Indiana’s possible first round matchup: 9 Indiana at 8 Tennessee. Winner plays Oregon.

Big Oregon win, Penn State is above below Indiana

Rankings: 1. Oregon 2. Georgia 3. Notre Dame 4. Ohio State 5. Texas 6. Tennessee 7. Penn State 8. Indiana 9. Boise State 10. Alabama or SMU 11. Big 12 champion

Indiana’s possible first round matchup: 10 Indiana at 7 Texas. Winner plays Georgia.

Scenario 4

Winners: Oregon, Georgia, SMU

Overview: Identical to Scenario 3 with the Alabama or SMU component removed from the rankings.

Close Oregon win

Rankings: 1. Oregon 2. Georgia 3. Penn State 4. Notre Dame 5. Ohio State 6. Texas 7. SMU 8. Tennessee 9. Indiana 10. Boise State 11. Alabama 12. Big 12 champion

Indiana’s possible first round matchup: 10 Indiana at 7 Ohio State. Winner plays Georgia.

Normal Oregon win

Rankings: 1. Oregon 2. Georgia 3. Notre Dame 4. Ohio State 5. Texas 6. Penn State 7. SMU 8. Tennessee 9. Indiana 10. Boise State 11. Alabama 12. Big 12 champion.

Indiana’s possible first round matchup: 10 Indiana at 7 Texas. Winner plays Georgia.

Big Oregon win, Penn State is seeded below Indiana

1. Oregon 2. Georgia 3. Notre Dame 4. Ohio State 5. Texas 6. SMU 7. Tennessee 8. Indiana 9. Penn State 10. Boise State 11. Alabama 12. Big 12 champion

Indiana’s possible first round matchup: 9 Indiana at 8 Tennessee. Winner plays Oregon.

Big Oregon win, Penn State is above below Indiana

1. Oregon 2. Georgia 3. Notre Dame 4. Ohio State 5. Texas 6. SMU 7. Tennessee 8. Penn State 9. Indiana 10. Boise State 11. Alabama 12. Big 12 champion

Indiana’s possible first round matchup: 10 Indiana at 7 Texas. Winner plays Oregon.

Scenario 5

Winners: Penn State, Georgia, Clemson

Overview: A Penn State victory in any scenario obviously removes Penn State as a first-round opponent for the Hoosiers. A Penn State victory, especially if it’s emphatic, will likely lift the Nittany Lions into the top seed and ranking in the bracket.

An Oregon loss, unless it’s emphatic, will not likely see the Ducks make a big drop in the rankings. It wouldn’t be very likely that one-loss Oregon would drop below Ohio State, a team Oregon defeated in the regular season.

We have Notre Dame ahead of Oregon here, but they can be easily switched, and swapping the pair wouldn’t affect Indiana’s potential first round opponent.

Rankings: 1. Penn State 2. Georgia 3. Notre Dame 4. Oregon 5. Ohio State 6. Texas 7. Tennessee 8. Indiana 9. Boise State 10. Alabama or SMU 11. Big 12 or Clemson 12. Big 12 or Clemson

Indiana’s possible first round matchup: 10 Indiana at 7 Ohio State. Winner plays Georgia.

Scenario 6

Winners: Penn State, Texas, Clemson

Overview: Nothing changes from Scenario 5, other than who Indiana would play in the second round in this scenario as Texas would be assumed to be seeded ahead of Penn State.

Rankings: 1. Texas 2. Penn State 3. Notre Dame 4. Oregon 5. Ohio State 6. Georgia 7. Tennessee 8. Indiana 9. Boise State 10. Alabama or SMU 11. Big 12 or Clemson 12. Big 12 or Clemson

Indiana’s possible first round matchup: 10 Indiana at 7 Ohio State. Winner plays Texas.

Scenario 7

Winners: Penn State, Texas, SMU

Overview: A Penn State victory does not create as many sub-scenarios for Indiana as an Oregon victory. As in Scenarios 5-6, the opponent for Indiana stays the same even as the other teams move around in the rankings. The second round opponent would change for the Hoosiers.

Rankings: 1. Texas 2. Penn State 3. Notre Dame 4. Oregon 5. Ohio State 6. Georgia 7. Tennessee 8. SMU 9. Indiana 10. Boise State 11. Alabama 12. Big 12 or Clemson

Indiana’s possible first round matchup: 10 Indiana at 7 Ohio State. Winner plays Texas.

Scenario 8

Winners: Penn State, Georgia, SMU

Overview: In this scenario, we switched things up just for variety’s sake and have Texas seeded ahead of Ohio State. It changes Indiana’s first round opponent to Texas instead of Ohio State. The same principle can be applied in the opposite way in Scenario 5.

Rankings: 1. Penn State 2. Georgia 3. Notre Dame 4. Oregon 5. Texas 6. Ohio State 7. SMU 8. Tennessee 9. Indiana 10. Boise State 11. Alabama 12. Big 12 or Clemson

Indiana’s possible first round matchup: 10 Indiana at 7 Texas. Winner plays Georgia.