When it comes to projecting an NBA team’s fortune, the health and production of the star players matter most. But they’re not all that matters, and that’s especially true for certain situations. Call them an “X-factor” or a swing variable or whatever terminology you want to use, but sometimes the emergence or failure of a key role player at a thin position has outsized importance.

Last season, I put together a list of a dozen such players, guys who were way, way, waaaaay off the national radar but seemed like potential bellwethers for their respective squads. More often than not, that proved to be true — for good or bad. While the Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder shrugged off disappointing seasons from their representatives on my list (Oshae Brissett and Vasilije Micić), the same can’t be said for those from the Los Angeles Lakers (Max Christie), Toronto Raptors (Jalen McDaniels), Memphis Grizzlies (Ziaire Williams) and Phoenix Suns (Drew Eubanks). The ineffectiveness of the players I nominated played critical roles in the failures of their respective teams’ second units.

On the other hand, successes like Nickeil Alexander-Walker (Minnesota Timberwolves) and Naji Marshall (New Orleans Pelicans) were huge factors in positive seasons from both teams, while a breakout year from Atlanta’s Jalen Johnson kept an otherwise disappointing Hawks team afloat.

A year later, it’s time to put this list together again. To review, I’m not saying these players will be breakout successes, nor am I anointing them for failure. What I am pointing out is that they are in higher-leverage situations for their teams than you might think given their station in the league’s hierarchy; the “will-he-or-won’t-he” success propositions for these guys matter in a way it usually doesn’t for players of this ilk.

Without further ado, the 12 envelopes, please:

The Raptors might petition the league to switch to four-on-four this year; their top four players are pretty solid. After that … not so much. Potential fifth starter Bruce Brown is out with a knee injury, and the Raptors have no other players besides Dick who look like credible starters.

Dick might not be either. Is the 2023 lottery pick ready to take a leap forward after a wobbly first season? The 20-year-old Kansas product had modest stats as a rookie (8.9 PER, 36.5 percent from 3), but his high launch rate (9.2 3s attempted per 100 possessions) hints at the ability to be a high-volume sniper. He’ll also have to show he can check starting wings, even if he ends up taking the opponent’s least threatening assignment. If he can give Toronto a fifth starting-caliber player, the Raptors are much more believable as a playoff hopeful.

With Kristaps Porziņģis out for a chunk of the season and Al Horford being 38, the defending champions need another center to step forward and solidify the frontcourt rotation. Enter Tillman, a 25-year-old acquired from Memphis at last season’s trade deadline. He only saw 69 playoff minutes, many of them in blowouts, but contributed 11 productive minutes in Boston’s Game 3 win against the Dallas Mavericks in the NBA Finals.

Tillman can’t space the floor like Horford and Porziņģis, and those limitations showed when injuries forced the Grizzlies to start him in the 2022 postseason. However, he’s a high-IQ defender who can handle himself in most switches. He’s also a nifty passer from the elbows; you rarely see a low-volume backup big like this with a 2-to-1 assist-turnover ratio. Can he give Boston enough juice to keep the machine rolling when its first two center options are off the floor?

Precious Achiuwa, C, New York

Offseason trades and an injury to Mitchell Robinson have hollowed out New York’s bench, leaving the Knicks unexpectedly reliant on Achiuwa after he was a salary-matching throw-in in last winter’s OG Anunoby trade. The 6-foot-8, 225-pound Achiuwa gives up pounds and inches when he plays center but nonetheless hustled his way into some solid minutes in that role in the second half of last season.

Looking at the Knicks’ bench behind Karl-Anthony Towns, Achiuwa could be taking on a much bigger role, as limited banger Jericho Sims is the only other option. Achiuwa’s shooting isn’t a big threat (30.7 percent career from 3), and iffy shot selection derails him at times, but his 56.4 percent true shooting in 49 games as a Knick last year was a career high. If he can keep it up, the Knicks’ bench becomes a much less worrisome proposition.

How about going from not playing at all in Indiana, to playing occasionally for the Clippers, to “Hey, could you maybe start at center for a playoff team?”

Theis is a potential opening-day starter for a Pelicans team that finds itself without a starting-caliber five. While there is little chance Theis finishes games when the Pels are at full strength — presumably Zion Williamson will see extensive action as a small-ball five — there’s also the little matter of Williamson’s injury history and what that might mean for a more extensive role for the German big man.

Realistically, this is a 15-minutes-a-night assignment, but on a team with limited floor spacing in the starting group, Theis will have to show he can knock down an occasional 3 (37.1 percent last year, 33.1 percent career). The 32-year-old is no giant himself at 6-8 but needs to provide some rim protection for a team heavy on perimeter stoppers and light on frontcourt tonnage, especially in the non-Williamson minutes.

Dyson Daniels, SG, Atlanta

The trade of Dejounte Murray sent Daniels to Atlanta, where he’ll have a greater opportunity than he did in a crowded Pelicans backcourt. In particular, the 21-year-old Australian will have a chance to positively impact last season’s 27th-ranked defense because his defensive skills are his most impressive trait. Daniels is 6-7 but can size down to check guards and wings, with quick feet and fast hands. He plucked 3.1 steals per 100 possessions a year ago, second only to the Portland Trail Blazers’ Matisse Thybulle.

However, Daniels also has to make enough shots to stay on the floor. He alternated between guard spots in New Orleans, but Trae Young has the keys to the offense in Atlanta, pushing Daniels off the ball. He’ll need to let it rip with confidence when shots come his way on the weak side. That’s the catch: He’s a 31.2 percent career shooter from 3 and 64.5 percent career shooter from the line. If he can’t improve on those figures, the Hawks may find it hard to use him as a full-time defensive stopper.

Atlanta’s Dyson Daniels defends Indiana’s Tyrese Haliburton during a preseason game earlier this month. (Dale Zanine / Imagn Images)

Trayce Jackson-Davis, C, Golden State

A late second-round pick in 2023 who quickly blossomed, Jackson-Davis is in a much different position this year as a potential starter. He’s the best hope for a true center on the roster, so the question is whether he can play alongside Draymond Green in a lineup that might not have enough shooting. If the pairing succeeds, it would save the 6-6 Green a lot of pounding as a full-time center.

The limited data from last season suggests it might work; the Warriors were plus-10.6 points per 100 in their 226 shared minutes together, with a 99.2 defensive rating. Those minutes weren’t coming against starters, however, and come in the framework of a Warriors roster that might have more offensive questions than in years past. Can a TJD-Green pairing score enough to function?

The only thing standing between Sacramento’s frontcourt depth being a yikes-level disaster, Lyles is just 6-8 and is more comfortable at the four but likely has to stand in as Domantas Sabonis’ backup at the center spot on most nights. A stretch option who made 38.4 percent of his 3s last season, Lyles otherwise tailed off after a productive 2022-23, scoring at a much lower rate and almost abandoning 2s entirely. (More than two-thirds of his shots were 3s.)

If the 28-year-old Canadian can revert to the player he was for the Kings in their dreamy, beamy 2022-23 campaign, that would go a long way toward shoring up an area that on paper looms as one of their biggest weaknesses. Playing on an expiring $8 million deal, he’ll have plenty of incentive.

The 31-year-old Powell saw his role and output shrink when James Harden arrived last season, shriveling from 26.0 percent usage in 2022-23 to just 20.0 percent a year ago. That volume may pick right back up this season, however, as the departure of Paul George and Kawhi Leonard’s indefinite absence leave the Clips desperate for more shot creation. Powell will be the first place they look to soak up missing volume.

Whether it’s as a starter or a sixth man, Powell has shown he can deliver. He averaged 17.1 points per game in just 26.1 minutes a night in 2022-23, and even in a lesser role, he knocked down 43.5 percent of his 3s in 2023-24. LA had the fourth-ranked offense a year ago but risks cratering if Powell and others can’t up their output in the absence of last year’s star wings. On an expiring $19.2 million deal, this is also a great chance for Powell to secure one more payday, whether in LA or another locale.

The Nuggets were last in the NBA in 3-point attempts last season and just lost a key shooter, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, to free agency. They also need wings of any stripe to fill in a gaping depth hole.

Enter Strawther, a late first-round pick in 2023 who played just 545 minutes as a rookie. The Nuggets need him to be a volume shooter and a rotation-caliber two-way player, and they have big hopes this season that hinge on him and a couple of other recent late draft picks taking major steps forward. His rookie year didn’t exactly set the league ablaze (8.1 PER), but he did launch 12.6 3s per 100 possessions — a figure that easily led the team.

As a result, Strawther feels like the most important of the Nuggets’ several fingers-crossed propositions on developing rotation-caliber players to fill some glaring roster holes. It’s likely the difference between being a championship-level team and early-round cannon fodder.

Julian Strawther is a strong option to potential fill Denver’s hole at shooting guard. (Isaiah J. Downing / USA Today)

The retirement of Derrick Rose puts an even bigger spotlight on Pippen, who is on a two-way deal with the Grizzlies but may very well be in the Memphis rotation from the word go. He is one of only three point guards on the roster, with the other two being the injury-prone Ja Morant and defensive stopper Marcus Smart, and comes off a strong close to his 2023-24 season and a great summer league.

Can Pippen shoot well enough from distance and avoid the turnovers and over-driving that plagued his early career to hold down the job all year? If so, he has a great chance of being promoted to a roster contract some time before he hits the limit of 50 active games on a two-way. And the Grizzlies, in turn, would have a much better chance of returning to their previous perch near the top of the Western Conference.

Vincent is the Lakers’ best chance of not having one of the NBA’s worst benches. He missed most of 2023-24 with a knee injury and struggled in a brief late-season cameo after signing a three-year, $33 million deal in free agency. However, unlike other Lakers backcourt bench hopefuls such as Dalton Knecht, Max Christie or Jalen Hood-Schifino, Vincent has actually delivered before, starting all 22 playoff games in the Miami Heat’s run to the 2023 finals.

The 3-and-D specialist shouldn’t be cooked just yet at 28 and offers the exact skill set the Lakers most need around LeBron James and Anthony Davis. If he can get his career back on track, L.A. seems more credible as a threat in the West.

Trent’s last season in Toronto went sideways, but up until that point, he’d been a productive sniper for the Blazers and Raptors. It’s not clear why he regressed last year, as he’s only 25, but it resulted in him settling for a minimum deal from the Bucks.

He has a great chance to reset his value ahead of free agency in 2025, because the Bucks really need his skill set. The career 38.6 percent 3-point marksman is Milwaukee’s best hope for a high-volume sniper around Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard and has familiarity with Lillard from their days together in Portland.

Look at Milwaukee’s roster, and you can see the Bucks need Trent as much as Trent needed them. Whether as a fifth starter or as a high-volume option off the bench, he’s one of the few Bucks’ role players who has a chance to provide real offensive juice. Milwaukee’s status in the East’s contender class leans pretty heavily on him producing.

(Illustration: Meech Robinson / The Athletic; top photos: Derick E. Hingle, Mark Blinch, Lachlan Cunningham / Getty Images; Glenn James / NBAE via Getty Images)