For the first time since the October home loss to the Georgia Bulldogs, the Texas Longhorns lost control over their postseason seeding by dropping a 21-19 overtime decision to the Bulldogs on Saturday in Atlanta in the SEC Championship game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Heading into the first College Football Playoff selection show in the new 12-team format, the Longhorns don’t have to worry about spending the holidays playing in a mere bowl game because head coach Steve Sarkisian’s team is a lock to make the field after entering the weekend as the No. 2 team and the No. 2 seed in the playoff rankings.

When ESPN televises the selection show at 11 a.m. Central on Sunday, the championship game winners will occupy the top four seeds, almost certainly in the order of the penultimate playoff rankings — No. 1 seed Oregon, the Big Ten champions, No. 2 seed Georgia, the SEC champions, No. 3 seed Arizona State, the Big 12 champions, and No. 4 seed Clemson, the ACC champions.

Each of those Power Four conference champions will receive first-round byes, securing a break until the quarterfinals on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day.

The other eight teams will face off on Dec. 20 or Dec. 21 in the most important and most difficult decisions by the selection committee.

The two highest remaining seeds are the most desirable because they would secure quarterfinal matchups against the weakest conference champions — Arizona State and Clemson.

In the hours before the decisions from the committee, and in the days afterward, the debate surrounds the respective resumes of Texas, Penn State, and Notre Dame.

The expectation is that the Longhorns and Nittany Lions have an advantage by making their respective conference championship games. Applying that logic suggests that the Fighting Irish might not be able to secure a seed higher than seventh because of their independence and a strength of schedule that ranks 58th, according to ESPN.

Small margins separate Texas and Penn State, with the Horns entering Sunday with a strength of resume ahead of the Fighting Irish and Nittany Lions in ESPN’s metrics. The FPI Power Index also slots Texas as the nation’s best team following the overtime loss to Georgia.

So those metrics and the No. 2 ranking of the Longhorns by the committee last week suggest that Texas has a floor of the No. 7 seed, securing a first-round matchup in Austin at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium.

What Sarkisian and the Horns want to avoid is the No. 7 seed that would likely match them up against the Bulldogs for a third time in the quarterfinals or the No. 8 or No. 9 seed paired with the Ducks.

However it falls as the selection committee navigates the new format, the reality is that the small margin between beating Georgia on Saturday and losing in overtime introduces a wide range of variability that could significantly diminish the odds of Texas making a run towards the national championship game.

And, ultimately, that’s what the Longhorns deserve.