Where Purdue basketball's Big Ten championship chase stands as stretch run begins

Where Purdue basketball’s Big Ten championship chase stands as stretch run begins

Posted by author February 4, 2025 Basketball

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Purdue basketball seeks its third straight Big Ten championship.
Unlike the previous two seasons, the Boilermakers aren’t in first place. So how can they get there?
NCAA tournament seeding still favors the Boilers well, but some help can get them another No. 1 seed.

WEST LAFAYETTE — Keeping tabs on opponents’ outcomes need not distract Purdue men’s basketball from its championship goals.

Boilermakers guard Fletcher Loyer might even argue it’s essential.

“It’s my job to help the team win the Big Ten,” Loyer said. “So yeah, I watch all the Big Ten games. I watch a lot of college games. But ultimately, it’s making sure we’re ready to go come Tuesday night.”

Contrary to the reality to which it had become accustomed, Purdue does not lead the Big Ten heading into February. It does not enter the closing stretch of the regular season with tenuous grasp on a No. 1 NCAA Tournament seed.

Both outcomes, though, remain on the table. The one over which the Boilermakers hold the most direct control — that third consecutive Big Ten conference championship — has begun to come up in more conversations with players, and more frequently within each one.

“That’s kind of one thing that we talk about when we break it down in the huddle at practice, before and after,” Camden Heide said. “Fletcher brings it up all the time. Braden (Smith) brings it up all the time. That’s our goal right now is winning the Big Ten championship.”

Where Purdue stands in relation to both defending its championship again and improving its NCAA resume as it prepares to begin February play Tuesday at Iowa.

Purdue basketball chasing history

Purdue takes a 9-2 Big Ten record into its first game of February. With the same record a year ago, that equated to a half-game lead over Wisconsin — promptly expanded by a 75-69 victory Feb. 4 in Madison. Two years ago, a 10-1 conference record provided a three-game lead over Illinois and Northwestern.

Until Saturday, the Boilermakers looked up at a two-game deficit behind Michigan State. The Spartans finally lost their first Big Ten game, at USC, and have another tough road task Tuesday at UCLA.

Purdue now sits a half-game behind Michigan State in the standings and a half-game up on Michigan. It plays both on the road over the course of the next couple of weeks. It can also further push away teams such as Wisconsin and the Bruins, currently lurking behind the leaders with four Big Ten losses, when it plays both at home.

Improved defense and decreased turnovers fueled eight wins in nine games since the resumption of Big Ten play in January. These urgent conversations about pushing toward that championship goal carry a different tone than if Purdue were playing with no margin for error, trying to climb back from the middle of the pack.

Those two specific factors also alleviate some of the degree of difficulty of winning the road games necessary for any championship run.

“Each game is a new game, right?” Purdue coach Matt Painter said. “It starts with our offense. If we take good shots and we take care of the basketball, we’re going to keep setting our defense. That really helps against a team like Iowa, because the more they can get in transition, the better it is for them.”

What will Purdue basketball’s seed be in March Madness?

In each of the past two seasons, teams striving for a No. 1 NCAA tournament seed needed help from others in the Big Ten to trip up Purdue. It went into February 21-1 in 2023 and 20-2 last season.

At 17-5, this team may only be able to reach that line by either winning out or coming close. On the bracket matrix site, the Boilers sit squarely in the 2/3 seed conversation. Only four of the 91 brackets included in Monday afternoon’s calculations had them as low as 4.

Right now, three teams shake out as No. 1 seeds on all 91 brackets: Auburn, Duke and Alabama. Iowa State (80), Houston (10) and Florida (1) occupied the fourth spot on various brackets.

The Big Ten championship itself will have no bearing on that NCAA tournament seed. However, finishing off the championship chase emphatically would mean collecting the sort of resume-boosting victories which could push them into certain 2 seed territory.

The 2022-23 team which eventually earned a 1 seed collected six victories over teams ranked in the final Ken Pomeroy top 26 before playing its first February game. Same for last year’s team.

The current Boilermaker have only four: Alabama (6), Maryland (18), Michigan (20) and Ole Miss (21). However, the opponents already mentioned above, plus the regular-season finale at Illinois, provide ample opportunity for statement-making victories.

Auburn is lapping the field in the NCAA’s NET rating with a Quad 1 record of 12-1. (Those are home games against top 30 teams, neutral games against top 50 teams or road games against top 75 teams.) No other team owns more than seven such wins right now.

Purdue is one of a handful with six. In Quad 1 and 2 games combined, though, Purdue’s 12 victories trail only Alabama (14), Auburn (14) and are tied with Texas A&M (12).

However, those records remain fluid. Games can drop or rise between categories over the remainder of the season. Purdue can pick up valuable road wins at Iowa (63 in NET) and Indiana (65) and needs Rutgers to hang onto its top-75 road win status.

Those NET rankings also remind of the damage a resume sometimes absorbs. That single Big Ten home loss to Ohio State would have qualified as a Quad 1 win, as the Buckeyes’ schedule — aided by the win at Purdue, certainly — puts them No. 26 in the ranking.

So the internal message right now remains steady excellence and improvement.

“Whether Michigan State has one loss or no losses, or whoever else is around us, we’ve got to go out and win every night,” Loyer said. “So that’s what we’re focused on doing. And if we’re focused on this, the rest will fall in place.”