Where is Duke football in ESPN’s initial SP+ rankings for the 2025 season?
The Duke football team will look quite different in 2025 compared to the Blue Devils squad that won nine games last fall, but according to ESPN’s initial SP+ rankings released on Thursday, head coach Manny Diaz and his staff still have a squad worth respect.
Bill Connelly’s advanced metrics, as he wrote, are built out of a combination of three factors: a team’s returning production, recruiting prowess, and recent success. There are still some dominoes to fall in the transfer portal between now and August, but as of Thursday, the SP+ metrics consider the Blue Devils the 39th-best program in the country and the fifth-best team in the ACC.
Connelly’s math puts Duke at No. 62 in the offensive rankings but No. 30 on the defensive side, an understandable split given that the Blue Devils surrendered just 5.31 yards per play and 24.5 points per game in 2024. Key defensive starters like defensive tackle Kendy Charles, safety Jaylen Stinson, and cornerback Joshua Pickett won’t return, but All-ACC corner Chandler Rivers and star edge rusher Vincent Anthony Jr. will be back to lead the team.
On the offensive side, wide receivers Jordan Moore and Eli Pancol will both head to the professional ranks after combining for 1,659 yards and 17 touchdowns in 2024. Quarterback Maalik Murphy, who set a program record with 26 passing touchdowns, and running back Star Thomas both opted for the transfer portal, but quarterback Darian Mensah (Tulane Green Wave) and wideouts Andrel Anthony (Oklahoma Sooners) and Cooper Barkate (Harvard Crimson) all joined the Blue Devils in their stead.
Only the Clemson Tigers (No. 11), Miami Hurricanes (No. 14), SMU Mustangs (No. 18), and Louisville Cardinals (No. 22) finished higher than Duke in Connelly’s rankings. The North Carolina Tar Heels, despite bringing in six-time Super Bowl champion Bill Belichick to lead the program, only came in at No. 44.
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