In the midst of constant conference realignment, Stanford and Cal have joined the ranks of the Atlantic Coast Conference by way of the now-revived Pac-12, while SMU will bring a formidable NIL base and competitive football and basketball programs from the American Athletic Conference. Stanford, arguably the crown jewel of this group, will offer its academic prowess alongside elite Olympic sports; however, the school has yet to return to peak form in football and men’s basketball, having last made the NCAA Tournament in 2014. Their women’s team — a national title contender year-in and year-out — will immediately raise the quality of the conference, though.

It’s been over ten years since a new school joined the ACC; Notre Dame, Pitt, and Syracuse began competing in 2013, and Louisville 2014. With unfamiliar opponents now appearing on the in-conference schedule, what can we expect from the likes of Stanford, Cal, and SMU this upcoming men’s basketball season? 

2023-24 Record: 13-19 (9-11 Pac-12)

Scoring Percentage Returned from 2023-24: 0%

Projected Starting Five: G DJ Campbell (Western Carolina), G Christian Tucker (UT-El Paso), G Andrej Stojakovic (Stanford), F Josh Ola-Tucker (Minnesota), C Mady Sissoko (Michigan State)

The Skinny: Cal took “portaling” a step further this season. After losing every scholarship player from 2023-24 — including first-team All-Pac 12 selection Jaylon Tyson — Coach Mark Madsen completely reshaped his roster with nine transfer portal additions. Despite landing some promising talent, the going will likely be tough in a more competitive conference. A silver lining, however, is the jump from a 3-29 record two seasons prior to a 13-19 finish in 2023-24, the first with Madsen at the helm.

It remains to be seen how heavily Cal leans on its transfer darlings with several years of eligibility and high-impact potential, i.e. Stojakovic and ex-Minnesota forward Josh Ola-Tucker. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Golden Bears struggle mightily in their first go-round on the East Coast. 11 teams in the ACC return at least 30% of their scoring production, and Cal’s portal class isn’t as sterling as others.

The Golden Bears have arguably the most difficult roster to project in the ACC. Such is life in the transfer portal era, where nothing is certain.

Offseason Grade: C+

2023-24 Record: 20-13 (11-7 AAC)

Scoring Percentage Returned from 2023-24: 30.7%

Projected Starting Five: G Boopie Miller (Wake Forest), G Chuck Harris, G Kario Oquendo (Oregon), F Matt Cross (UMass), F Yohan Traore (UC-Santa Barbara)

The Skinny: Out of this bunch, the Mustangs look most poised to compete in the higher rungs of the ACC — at least for this upcoming season. Coach Andy Enfield, who ignited a series of coaching changes following his move from USC to SMU, retained a key cog in guard Chuck Harris (13.4 PPG) and brought in first-team All-Atlantic 10 forward Matt Cross (15.3 PPG), Wake Forest product Boopie Miller (15.6 PPG), and 6’11’’ forward Yohan Traore (14.5 PPG) from UC-Santa Barbara. Albeit lacking in Power Five experience, SMU’s unit could feature a scoring-heavy backcourt (a recent staple of Enfield’s teams at USC) in part ACC-tested thanks to Miller’s stint with the Demon Deacons. 

I foresee the Mustangs’ NIL arsenal growing more fearsome in the coming years, especially if this group underperforms in a new conference. The Dallas-based school has clearly committed itself to tinkering with a basketball program that hasn’t quite replicated its success in the mid-2010s; from 2014-15 to 2016-17, SMU went a combined 82-17 and reached two NCAA Tournaments. 

There are enough pieces here for a top-10 finish in the ACC.

Offseason Grade: B

2023-24 Record: 14-18 (8-12 Pac-12)

Scoring Percentage Returned from 2023-24: 26.5%

Projected Starting Five: G Benny Gealer, G Jaylen Blakes (Duke), G Oziyah Sellers (USC), F Chisom Okpara (Harvard), C Maxime Raynaud

The Skinny: The transfer portal was not kind to Stanford. The Cardinal lost five of their top six scorers, including two — sophomores Andrej Stojakovic and Kanaan Carlyle — who looked poised for breakouts in Palo Alto after solid freshman campaigns. New head coach Kyle Smith will hope to revitalize a middling program with the help of second-team All-Pac 12 recipient Maxime Raynaud, a French native who averaged 15.5 PPG and 9.6 RPG last season. Reynaud, like Will Smith in The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air, might find himself standing in a living room wondering why he’s the only one left. Due to the portal exodus, this ought to be a development year for the Cardinal in a tougher basketball conference.

Expect Raynaud to carry Stanford to a few in-conference wins, but he’ll need some help. Don’t be surprised if sophomore forward Jaylen Thompson — a former four-star recruit — takes a big leap after the departure of multiple frontcourt pieces. 

As a bonus, keep an eye on former Virginia men’s lacrosse standout defenseman Cole Kastner, who transferred to Stanford to play basketball this season.

Offseason Grade: C

I wouldn’t expect any of these three to establish themselves as a first-year contender, yet I believe that each program will steadily improve under the direction of new coaches. Smith, having adopted a unique, data-driven approach to his teams, brought last year’s Washington State team out of mediocrity and into the NCAA Tournament for the first time since — guess who — Coach Tony Bennett was at the helm in 2007-08.

Madsen has undertaken a major project at Cal but is righting the ship after that disastrous campaign two years ago. SMU’s Enfield has an Elite Eight appearance on his resumé and won at least 22 games at USC in four of his last five years in Los Angeles.

Here’s an underrated factor to monitor as the season progresses: how will the frequent cross-country flights affect the new schools, particularly the two from California?

ACC Men’s Basketball Season Predictions: Where Will Virginia Finish in the ACC?