It’s the final rankings (in Europe’s singing voice) … well, I’ll also have a Week 18 edition for the absurd people or, hopefully, those betting, playing a one-off week, DFS or whatever. This week, we have abbreviated game previews and the good stuff! Yes, all the best (and worst) Christmas ranks! Oh, and actually, Week 17 fantasy football rankings, too.
Reminder! I always have some “for fun” ranks where I rate anything from cartoons to players from the ’80s to things not to do when you’re over 30 — feel free to suggest yours. I try to answer as many comments as humanly possible … however … simple questions such as, “Who should I start?” are covered, 99 percent of the time, within the rankings. Let’s duckin’ go!
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► Hollywood Brown had the second-most targets (eight), but ran just 40% of the routes. That makes him a decent upside gamble, even against the Steelers. If Brown sees 60-70% or more of the route participation, he can put up 100+ yards and a Top 20 performance. But it’s risky.
► If George Pickens plays, start him, but Najee Harris and Calvin Austin are benchable. Jaylen Warren is a solid Flex option.
► Mark Andrews has nine touchdowns in his last 10 games behind only Ja’Marr Chase (11) and Terry McLaurin (10) and more than any other tight end by three TDs. Jonnu Smith and Sam LaPorta have six TDs each.
► It may be hard to swallow, but Joe Mixon isn’t a must-start. The Ravens have allowed a mere 65.5 RB rushing yards per game, and only Saquon Barkley ran for more than 63 against them. Additionally, Mixon has 8.1 fantasy points or fewer in three of the last four games, despite at least 15 touches in each.
► If Kenneth Walker plays, he’s an RB2, as it’s likely the Seahawks wouldn’t risk playing him unless he were OK, but if Walker is out, Zach Charbonnet goes right back to Top-20 status.
► D’Andre Swift hasn’t scored double-digit fantasy points since Week 11 and is just RB35 in fantasy points per game since Week 9.
► If J.K. Dobbins returns, he’s a high-risk/reward RB3. If he’s out, Gus Edwards is a touchdown-reliant RB3, and I wouldn’t immediately chase his Week 16 production, as he had a season-high in rushing yards and doubled his touchdown total.
► The Patriots are risky, even in the backfield, as Rhamondre Stevenson has ranged anywhere from 40.0 to 82.1 RBTouch% this year. While he’s more reliable when games are close or with the lead, it’s hard to predict when the Patriots can accomplish such a feat, staying close with the Bills but getting blown out by the Jaguars.
► With 10.8 points, Audric Estime led the Broncos, but there are just two instances where the lead back has led the backfield in back-to-back weeks — Javonte Williams, Weeks 4 and 5, 9.0 and 13.6 fantasy points, respectively and Jaleel McLaughlin, Weeks 12 and 13, 4.4 and 8.9. You can’t trust anyone.
► I addressed the RB situation in my waiver wire column, but additionally, the Rams have only allowed RBs Alvin Kamara and Saquon Barkley big days since Week 9. It’s not a smash spot for Trey Benson or Michael Carter if either is the lead.
► Matthew Stafford had his first back-to-back sub-200-yard game since Weeks 8 (injured) and 11 last year. The next game? Stafford threw for 229 and four touchdowns against … the Cardinals. Now, that is coincidental, but the Cardinals are a great rebound matchup for Stafford, Puka Nacua and even Cooper Kupp.
► Breece Hall wasn’t on the injury report all week, and he ended up with his sixth-highest RBTouch% (76.0). If Aaron Rodgers plays, business as usual, but if he’s out, small downgrade to Davante Adams (volume), but Garrett Wilson’s outlook changes little.
► It’s not just Amari Cooper you can’t trust in Buffalo. You can’t trust any Bills wideout, possibly even Khalil Shakir. Mack Hollins is still ahead of Keon Coleman, and Cooper is behind Dawson Knox in route involvement. Shakir had just his second sub-8 fantasy point showing since Week 7, but Week 6 saw him contained by the Jets with a 2/2/19 statline and 2.9 points.
► Even against the Saints, the list of must-start players is one: Brock Bowers. Jakobi Meyers, Alexander Mattison and Ameer Abdullah are all deeper options with a bit more upside than usual given the matchup.
► As you saw against the Packers, if you attempt to start a Saints player, you’re asking to get coal.
► The last time a team didn’t have a running back hit double-digit PPR points against the Giants? Week 18 of last year. That’s not only for those rostering Jonathan Taylor but also Anthony Richardson, as the Giants even let Joe Burrow and Geno Smith run for 55+ yards.
► No, I didn’t trust Tyrone Tracy playing through an injury, and I’m sorry. The Colts are a good spot for him, which means, we’ll start Tracy and watch him go 11-for-37 without scoring. Yay feetsballing!
► Last week was Dowdle’s first non 100-rushing-yards game Since Week 12, and his first non-double-digit score since Week 11. It doesn’t get any easier for him, as the Eagles run defense is one of the worst matchups. Dowdle is a fringe RB2, especially if the carcass of Ezekiel Elliott is stealing goal-line carries.
► If Jalen Hurts plays, fire up everyone as normal. If Kenny Pickett is under center, A.J. Brown is still a must-start, but DeVonta Smith becomes a risky WR4.
► Chuba Hubbard obviously had his best game since the bye. In fact, it was his best game of the season. He scored more points than the three previous games, combined. The Buccaneers have been tough, and Hubbard had 12 carries for 43 yards against them — all rushing — in Week 13. The volume is here, but so might be an RB2 finish.
► Jalen McMillan the last three weeks: 50.1 points (WR11) and 16.7 FPPG (WR13). You’re starting him.
► Tony Pollard still has a higher RBTouch% (54) than Tyjae Spears (46) over the last two weeks, but with Pollard not practicing, playing through injury, and game scripts, Spears has been much better, including seeing four goal-line rushes to just one for Pollard.
► Brian Thomas Jr. is one of the fantasy MVPs as WR4 in FPPG since Week 11 and WR14 in FPPG on the season; he’s WR6 overall.
► If Jameis Winston plays due to Dorian Thompson-Robinson sitting, Jerry Jeudy is back to WR2 status even against the Dolphins. David Njoku is a must-start, but Elijah Moore would be a gamble with or without Cedric Tillman playing. As mentioned, the Dolphins have played the pass quite well.
► Per waivers, if Christian Watson plays, he’s an appealing WR4 with more boom potential than most weeks. If he’s out, Dontayvion Wicks is a fun chase for those needing the upside. Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft are the only two worth using outside of Watson and Wicks.
► T.J. Hockenson has just 5.6 FPPG on 17.7 TmTGT% over the last four games and is a man coverage matchup problem. Unfortunately, the Packers are only 23rd in Man% (22.2), which means Hockenson is in the streaming tight end conversation.
► Drake London had his third-highest YPRR mark this year (2.68) and second-highest if you remove the Week 9 game where he left early (hip) — he’s a must-start if playing. Darnell Mooney is a very strong WR3 also with his third-highest YPRR mark of the year (3.15) with Michael Penix Jr. under center.
► It was ugly for Brian Robinson, but even with two fumbles — for turnovers! — Robinson had 57.1 RBTouch% and can rebound into RB2 territory against the Falcons.
► The Lions run the most man — which you likely know by now — and George Kittle is much less effective against man with 1.67 YPRR compared to 3.08 against zone coverage. The good news is that Brock Purdy has 7.9 TD/ATT% against man compared to 3.0 against zone.
► After last week, it might be tempting to start Deebo Samuel, and I’m okay with the upside chase — plus, some fun with a last-man standing on MNF — but I’m less excited for Samuel if Isaac Guerendo plays.
It’s Christmas time! And I’m gathering — and updating — all the Christmases of lists from past years into one huge Christmas.
Honorable Mention: “Carry-On” — If you’re counting “Die Hard” as a Christmas movie, then this counts. I wouldn’t count either one, as they’re not, but I also just wanted to poke at those people a bit.
DFL: “A Christmas Story” — Hate me all you want, but I can’t stand it.
Pre-2000 Greats: “A Christmas Vacation” (all-time great), “Home Alone” (another all-time great), “The Muppet Christmas Carol” (can watch this every year), “The Santa Clause” (the sequels are huge drop-offs, but this is a classic now), “The Nightmare before Christmas” (though, Halloween movie?), “Scrooged” (modern-day Christmas Carol).
Honorable Mention
MOAR! Honorable Mentions, and Ones You Don’t Admit You Like
More Stinkers: “Santa Baby” (weirdly sexualized Christmas song that also makes the woman sound like a gold digger? The ’50s were weird), “The Chipmunk Song” (maybe ONCE a Christmas season, otherwise it’s headache-inducing), “Feliz Navidad” (more repetitively annoying than a kid saying, “Hey look, hey look, hey, hey, hey, hey look!”), “Little Drummer Boy” (super repetitive, especially the “par-rum, pum-pum-pum”).
🚨 HEADS UP 🚨 These can differ from my rankings, and MY RANKS are the order I’d start players outside of added context, such as, “Need highest upside, even if risky.” Also, based on 4-point TDs for QB, 6-point rest, and Half-PPR
🚨 HEADS UP 🚨
(Photo of Tyjae Spears: Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
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