For the gambling degenerates, here are our Week 16 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I’ll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.

Broncos at Chargers (-3): The Broncos have one of the best defenses in the NFL, and they have scored 34.8 points per game over their last four games (all wins). I like referencing Inpredictable.com for my picks, because it shows how betting markets view teams. They have Denver 17th (!), not even in the top half of the league, when they’re sixth in point differential (+89) and 10th in DVOA. They’re undervalued.

Texans at Chiefs (-3.5): If I knew Patrick Mahomes were going to play, I’d be all over the Chiefs at -3.5. If I knew Carson Wentz were going to start in place of Mahomes, I’d be all over the Texans at +3.5. But I don’t. 🤷‍♂️

Steelers at Ravens (-6.5): The Steelers have owned this rivalry recently, winning eight of the last nine. The Ravens haven’t scored 20 or more points against the Steelers in a game since 2020. The Steelers haven’t always had awesome teams during that span, but they always seem to have a good plan for Lamar Jackson.

BUT… George Pickens probably won’t play again this week, which means the Steelers’ offense will likely be impotent, and T.J. Watt likely won’t be 100 percent. I’m just going to stay away.

Eagles (-3.5) at Commanders: The Commanders haven’t beaten a team with a winning record yet this season. Their wins have come against the following teams: 

1. Giants (2-12)
2. Bengals (6-8)
3. Cardinals (7-7)
4. Browns (3-11)
5. Panthers (3-11)
6. Bears (4-10)
7. Giants (2-12)
8. Titans (3-11)
9. Saints (5-9)

Combined record of those above teams: 35-91 (0.278).In the Eagles’ Week 11 matchup against the Commanders, Jalen Hurts didn’t play well and Jake Elliott missed three kicks (2 FGs and a PAT). The Eagles still outgained the Commanders 434-264, and the final score was closer than the game would indicate because of a garbage time Zach Ertz TD and 2-point conversion with 28 seconds to go that cut the deficit from 26-10 to 26-18.The Eagles are playing at a high level, while the Commanders feel a little bit like pretenders.

Browns at Bengals (-7.5): Who cares?

Lions (-6.5) at Bears: The Bears might be the worst-coached team in the NFL. They gave the Lions a little bit of a scare on Thanksgiving, but they’ve looked checked out the last two weeks, getting blown out on the road by the Niners and Vikings. The Lions are banged up, and with all of their injuries they desperately need the 1 seed so they can rest up over a bye week. They’re going to look to come out and crush this team early.

Cardinals (-4.5) at Panthers: The Cardinals beat the Patriots 30-17 Week 15, they beat the Jets 31-6 Week 10, and they beat the Bears 29-9 Week 9. They aren’t much of a threat to beat anyone half decent, but they can handle their business against the league’s dreck. 

Giants at Falcons (-8.5): The Falcons made the correct but still hilarious decision to bench the struggling Kirk Cousins for rookie Michael Penix, who is gifted an atrocious Giants matchup for his first ever NFL start.

Since benching (and eventually cutting) Daniel Jones, the Giants have toggled back and forth between Tommy DeVito (2 starts) and Drew Lock (also 2 starts) as their starting quarterbacks. Neither has thrown for a TD yet. 

Titans at Colts: (-3.5): Who cares?

Rams (-3) at Jets: Appearing on Pat McAfee’s moronic show, Aaron Rodgers had words for ESPN’s Ryan Clark, who are in some kind of beef that I frankly don’t feel like learning more about. But here’s what Rodgers said, via Awful Announcing.

“Say whatever the f*** you want about me, I don’t care,” Rodgers began. “But just before you do it, whether you state your name, your accolades, pronouns, whatever it is, just state your vax status so that anything you say afterwards gets put in the right light. Just get it out there. Cause then when you say things about me, people can at least be like, ‘Oh, you are captured by the multimillion-dollar propaganda Skyhawk and you’re still upset about it.’ Just put that out there just so everybody knows where you’re coming from. Everybody knows, ‘Okay, cool, you’re twice vaxxed Moderna with three booster shots’ and then say what you want to say, whatever.

“I don’t care. I’m just saying a PSA, just please help everybody out who’s wondering, ‘Where is this coming from?’ Including myself, where the f*** is this coming from? But just give a little PSA. Do a little bit of digging and then you know where it’s all coming from. Right? You’re captured, you’re highly vaccinated and then say whatever the hell you want to say about me cause I couldn’t give two s***s about it.”

Like, wtf is he even talking about?

Anyway… Rams.

Vikings (-3) at Seahawks: This is a huge Week 16 matchup that could have implications on the the winners of the NFC North, the NFC West, and how teams are seeded in the playoffs. 

I’ll believe Geno Smith can win a clutch late-season game against a good opponent, you know, when he actually does that at some point. Also, kind of under the radar, but Smith has thrown for 14 TDs vs. 13 INTs this season. I don’t like his chances against this aggressive Vikings defense.

Patriots at Bills (-14): The Bills’ three remaining games: Patriots, Jets, at Patriots. Pencil them in at 14-3. 

49ers at Dolphins (-1): The Overrated Head Coach Bowl.

Jaguars at Raiders (-1): This is a big “draft position” game. Let’s take a peek at Tankathon:

The tiebreaker for draft positioning is strength of schedule, as in, the team with the weaker strength of schedule gets the higher pick. Last week, in the race for the No. 1 overall pick, the Raiders had a weaker strength of schedule than the Giants by a margin of 0.002. It’s up to 0.012 this week. 

If you’ll notice, the 3-11 teams currently in the third to seventh overall draft slots all have weaker strengths of schedules than the Giants and Raiders, so if the Giants or Raiders were to win a game, they could tumble in the draft order quite a bit. The mission for the Raiders in this game should be crystal clear. Just lose, baby.

Buccaneers (-3.5) at Cowboys: The Bucs have a four-game winning streak by a combined score of 124-60. The Cowboys haven’t been awful lately, after it looked a few weeks ago like they might not win another game, but the Bucs are rolling and have a division to win. 

Saints at Packers (-14.5): The Saints are 5-5 in games started by Derek Carr. They’re 0-4 in games started by the Saints’ backups. They lost those games by a combined score of 64-130. Carr won’t play against the Packers, and it doesn’t really matter who starts. The Packers still have to wrap up the 6 seed to avoid playing the Eagles/Lions/Vikings in the first round of the playoffs, while the Saints have nothing to play for.