Photo:

Carson Dennis / Eclipse Sportswire

We’ve crossed the halfway point of the Tampa Bay Downs meet as we get set for the final Wednesday program of January. Here are my picks for five of the day’s nine races.

Best bet: King Miano, race 8

Best value bet: Carroll’s Honor, race 2

Race 2

No. 5 Rogue Diamond (4-5, morning-line favorite) has this field over a barrel if able to replicate her last-out win at the Fair Grounds, which came over a sloppy track. But I’m willing to take a shot with No. 1 Carroll’s Honor (3-1) on a fast strip. The daughter of Curlin’s Honor drops out of a much tougher spot and adds Lasix. No. 6 Florida Flower (6-1) is the best of the rest.

How I’d bet it, based on a $100 budget: $10 win 1, $5 exacta box 1/5

Race 4

No. 6 Supreme Dominance (5-2, morning-line favorite) looks well-spotted by Kelly Breen invading from Gulfstream and dropping down the class ladder. A run back to any of his last three efforts would likely get the job done, and Samuel Marin gets a leg up. No. 1 Grand Daniel (15-1) has some dirtied-up form after a try vs. much tougher and a flop in the slop. His three-back effort puts him in the hunt. No. 3 Nautilis (3-1) had an eventful journey last time out, finishing fourth but elevated to third via DQ, but he ran behind two next-out winners.

How I’d bet it: $2 exacta box 1/3/6, $3 exacta 6/1,3, $2 win 1

Race 6

No. 3 La Gata Salvaje (8-1) was rolling late vs. sprinters when last seen and may appreciate the added ground here while trying a new low. No. 4 Centerfold Guy (3-1, morning-line favorite) was a solid second in a similar spot when last seen, but low-profile connections give some cause for pause. No. 9 McKirgan (5-1) adds Lasix and lures Samy Camacho (22 percent) shipping in from Gulfstream.

How I’d bet it: $10 win 3, $5 exacta 3/4

Race 7

No. 4 Red Wren (5-2, morning-line favorite) takes what might be deemed a suspicious drop in class off a July layoff, but she is working well for her return. She was a good second over this course last year vs. much tougher than the rivals she faces in this spot. No. 5 Permed (4-1) attracts Jose Ferrer and will be rolling late. No. 10 Jassai (7-2) can land a share based on speed figures as Daniel Centeno climbs aboard.

How I’d bet it: $10 exacta 4/5,10

Race 8

No. 5 King Miano (2-1) overcame a significant layoff to get the job done by open lengths vs. conditional $8,000 claimers when last seen and is a major threat to double up off the bench with Ferrer riding for Kathleen O’Connell. They’re winning at 29 percent as a team in the last 14 starts. No. 8 Estilo Magico (9-5, morning-line favorite) carries a long losing streak into this one but has been picking up checks with regularity. The seven-furlong trip may prove ideal. No. 3 Fenwick (3-1) has back class to spare – perhaps this drop will wake him up. No. 7 Papa Katz (10-1) has won off the bench before, making him 1-for-1 lifetime at Tampa Bay Downs, and there is an encouraging four-furlong drill on the tab as he gets in light with apprentice Cesar Gonzalez.

How I’d bet it: $10 exacta 5/8, $6 exacta 5/3, $4 exacta 5/7

Robert Criscola is a freelance handicapper based in New York.