The Golden State Warriors’ evolution has been impressive. Despite Steph Curry and Draymond Green getting older and Klay Thompson moving on, the Dubs are still a force in the Western Conference.

And while the San Antion Spurs will see Victor Wembanyama return to the floor this evening, my Warriors vs. Spurs predictions break down why it could be a tough return to the court.

Here are my NBA picks for this Western Conference showdown on Saturday, Nov. 23.

Warriors vs Spurs prediction

My best bet
Victor Wembanyama Under 25.5 Points (-120 at bet365)

My analysis

Victor Wembanyama’s injury came at the worst possible time. The San Antonio Spurs super sophomore was in the middle of a three-game stretch where he was averaging 37.3 points, 11.3 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 2.7 blocks per game — including the first 50-point performance of his career.

Meanwhile, the way the Golden State Warriors have gotten the most out of the remaining years of Steph Curry and Draymond Green has been impressive. The Warriors enter this game with the best record in the Western Conference and rank third in net rating.

Curry is still doing his thing, averaging 22.7 points per game and shooting 45% from 3-point range, and Buddy Hield has done a solid job as a replacement for Klay Thompson. However, it’s the way that the Dubs are playing at the other end of the floor that makes them a legit title contender.

The Warriors enter this matchup ranked fourth in defensive rating, and they currently lead the NBA in opponent-effective field goal percentage. They also do a solid job on the inside, sitting 12th in opponent points in the paint.

The Dubs pose a nightmare matchup for Wembanyama, as they will pester him and force the Spurs star into tough shots. Prior to Wemby’s three-game outburst, he was averaging just 18.3 points while shooting just 42.5% from the field, and he eclipsed 25.5 points just once in his first 10 games.

On top of that, I wouldn’t expect the Spurs to push Wemby too hard in his return to action. Give me the Under on his points prop.

Warriors vs Spurs same-game parlay

Victor Wembanyama Under 25.5 Points

Steph Curry Over 5.5 Assists

Warriors -2.5

Although the Warriors have been very deliberate in not overusing Curry, the future Hall of Famer remains highly efficient with his minutes and has been a great facilitator for his teammates. 

Curry is averaging 6.6 assists per game this season and that has increased to 7.0 over the last six games. I’m adding Over 6.5 assists to this same-game parlay — which is a number Curry’s eclipsed in four of his last six starts. 

While San Antonio has been scrappy defensively, the Spurs rank 21st in offensive rating and are going against a Warriors team that won’t make life easy on that end of the floor. I like getting the Dubs at less than one possession.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Warriors vs Spurs odds

Warriors vs Spurs live odds

Warriors vs Spurs opening odds

• Spread: Golden State -4.5 | Spurs +4.5
• Moneyline: Golden State -220 | Spurs +180
• Over/Under: Over 223.5 | Under 223.5

Odds courtesy of bet365

Warriors vs Spurs spread and Over/Under analysis

• The Spurs opened this game as 4.5-point home underdogs, but the return of Victor Wembanyama moved the line down to 2.5.
• The Warriors are 10-5 ATS this season.
• The total hit the board at 223.5 and was also impacted by the return of Wemby, shooting all the way up to 228.5 as of Saturday afternoon.
• That might be a little too much of an overreaction considering these are two Top-10 defensive teams.

Warriors vs Spurs trend

Golden State has covered the spread in 25 of its last 37 road games (+11.80 Units / 29% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Spurs.

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