Written by Steven Dooley, Head of Market Insights, and Shier Lee Lim, Lead FX and Macro Strategist

USD dominates as APAC tumbles over week

The US dollar surged higher on Friday, completing a clean sweep of daily wins last week, after the US jobs report came in much stronger than expected.

The September jobs report found 254k new jobs, well above the 150k expected, and the best reading since the May report. The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%.

The US dollar index jumped 0.5% on Friday to end 2.1% for the week. The USD index finished at two-month highs.

The AUD/USD was down 0.7% on Friday and fell 1.7% for the week.

The NZD/USD lost 0.9% on Friday to drop 3.0% over the week.

In Asia, USD/SGD gained 0.5% on Friday and was up 1.8% over the week.

The USD/CNH gained 0.7% on Friday and was up 1.8% for the week. 

Yuan at crucial juncture after recent volatility

The USD/CNH’s massive gain over the week will be in focus ahead of today’s FX reserves data.

In September, we project that China’s headline foreign exchange reserves would rise by USD28.9 billion to USD3,317 billion.

After accounting for coupon impacts and foreign exchange, we value this adjusted change at USD 10 billion.

USD/CNH has whipsawed following the policy-driven pattern drop and post US labor statistics rally. We consider the region 7.08-7.10 to be a crucial zone of resistance for the pair.

RBNZ, US CPI key this week

The US consumer price index for September, due on Thursday, will be closely watched for signs of persistent inflation that could influence the Federal Reserve’s future policy decisions.

Central bank meetings in New Zealand, India and South Korea will also be in focus, will likely rate cuts potentially impacting their respective currencies.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Reserve Bank of India announce their official rates on Wednesday, while the Bank of Korea holds its monetary policy meeting on Friday.

Greenback in weekly clean sweep

Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges  

Key global risk events

Calendar: 7 – 12 October  

All times AEST

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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.