USC and Texas A&M square off in the 2024 Las Vegas Bowl. Here’s the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Texas A&M was in position to play for the SEC championship, but a late loss to Texas ended those hopes and the Aggies finished 8-4, and just lost the bulk of its gifted defensive line amid opt outs looking ahead to the NFL Draft.

USC stumbled to a 6-6 record that puts Lincoln Riley’s tenure as head coach under considerable pressure, although the team’s defense has improved from its dismal performance of the previous two years.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Trojans and Aggies meet up in the postseason?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how USC and Texas A&M compare in college football’s Las Vegas Bowl game.

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It appears the model is sticking with the SEC team over the Big Ten challenger, but by a manageable margin on the scoreboard.

SP+ predicts that Texas A&M will defeat USC by a projected score of 31 to 24 and will win the game by an expected margin of 7.1 points.

The model gives the Aggies a 67 percent chance of outright victory over the Trojans.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 384-352-9 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage.

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Texas A&M is a 3.5 point favorite against USC, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the matchup.

FanDuel lists the total at 53.5 points for the game (Over -104, Under -118).

And it set the moneyline odds for Texas A&M at -156 and for USC at +130 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take …

If you do, you’ll be in the majority of bettors, most of whom expect the Aggies to handle the Trojans, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Texas A&M is getting 64 percent of bets to cover the spread in a win over Southern Cal.

The other 36 percent of wagers project USC will either win outright in an upset, or keep the margin to a field goal or less in a loss.

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When: Fri., Dec. 27
Where: Las Vegas, Nev.

Time: 10:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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