It is amazing how much expectations can change in less than a month. In the preseason, most looked at USC’s September 21 trip to Michigan as a game that the Trojans would be fortunate to win. Now, it looks like a must-win game for the Trojans because dropping a game to a team as mediocre as the Wolverines would severely hamper USC’s Big Ten title hopes.

Let’s just call it what it is. Michigan is not a good team. We learned that again in week three of the college football season.

On Saturday, the Wolverines hosted Arkansas State and managed just a 28-18 win. Though they did jump out to a 28-3 lead, they didn’t look impressive at any point.

Facing an overmatched Group of 5 program, the Wolverines threw for only 134 yards and completed only 13 passes. What’s more, they were picked off three times.

Yes, Michigan did run for over 300 yards on the day but does anyone believe that will happen next week against the revitalized USC defense? That seems improbable at best.

Of course, this lackluster showing comes on the heels of a 31-12 dismantling of the Wolverines by No. 3 Texas a week ago. In that loss, the defending National Champions showed that they are a far cry from being as good as they were a season ago.

Against Arkansas State, they showed that they are a far cry from being just a good team in general. And it starts at the quarterback position.

Starting quarterback Davis Warren has thrown for only 322 yards all season. That’s less than USC quarterback Miller Moss threw for in the week-one win over LSU.

Warren also has only two passing touchdowns on the season. By contrast, he’s been picked off three times already.

Additionally, he’s completing just 63.8% of his passes and averaging just 5.6 yards per completion. How a program as storied and successful as Michigan can be so poor at the quarterback position is both puzzling and startling.

Warren’s deficiencies are one reason why Michigan ranked just 121st nationally in total defense heading into Saturday’s game. However, the Wolverines’ woes aren’t just confined to the offensive side of the football.

This year, Michigan isn’t the same on defense either. The side of the football that has been U of M’s calling card for years is simply mediocre in 2024.

Entering Saturday giving up an average of 316.5 yards per game, the Wolverines ranked tied for 69th nationally in total defense. What’s more, they gave up 280 yards (222 through the air) to lowly Arkansas State.

What should have USC licking its chops this week is the Michigan pass defense. Michigan entered Saturday ranked just 98th in the country against the pass.

Meanwhile, USC ranks 10th nationally in passing offense. Putting up 336.5 yards per game through the air, the Trojans are one of the best passing attacks in the nation and they will likely run circles around USC.

The point is that Michigan is a team that is not living up to its reputation this year. Thus, USC should be of the mindset that next weekend’s game is one that simply has to go into the win column if the Trojans believe they are going to compete for a Big Ten title.

It is amazing how the tides have shifted in just three weeks. The Wolverines entered the season ranked in the top ten while USC was barely in the preseason polls at No. 23.

Now though, the two college football blue-bloods have swapped positions in the college football landscape. As a result, winning in “The Big House” next week doesn’t seem nearly as daunting as it might have when the schedule was released. In fact, it now seems like a foregone conclusion.