Jessica Pegula advanced to her first-ever Grand Slam final after defeating Karolína Muchová on Thursday 1-6, 6-4, 6-2 in three sets.

Heading into the semifinals, Pegula had yet to drop a set in her five previous matches at the U.S. Open. Her 6-2, 6-4 straight-set victory in the quarterfinals over the world’s No. 1, Iga Świątek, was awe-inspiring.

She will now face the world’s second-ranked player in the finals when she takes on Aryna Sabalenka Saturday afternoon. The Belarusian reached the final by knocking off Emma Navarro, 6-3, 7-6.

While Sabalenka is well known for her power, Pegula can benefit from the hard court, which is her best surface (67%).

The crowd could also play a massive role in the match as they’ll likely be cheering on Pegula, who is a native New Yorker and daughter of Buffalo Bills owners Terry and Kim Pegula.

With Sabalenka favored on the spread by 4.5 games, she’ll have to overcome more than just her opponent to win by margin.

Pegula brings confidence into final

It’s been a memorable tournament for Pegula thus far, as she also reached a Grand Slam semifinal for the first time in her career.

She could’ve easily folded after dropping the first set and being down a break in the second, yet she rallied to pull off the victory.

The first set probably had more to do with a bit of nerves, but Pegula quickly found her game. She began using both sides of the court, forcing Muchová to expend more energy chasing balls.

One of Pegula’s strengths is her fearlessness to employ different strategies. Against Świątek, she constantly hit into her body, making her opponent’s return shot even more difficult.

In both matches, Pegula was comfortable engaging in long rallies, while waiting for her opponent to make the first mistake.

This strategy underscores her confidence in her recent form, which could undoubtedly be pivotal against a hard-hitter like Sabalenka.

How will Sabalenka handle aggressive style?

Sabalenka’s power often dictates her game, as she uses her big serve to pressure the opposition.

The two-time Grand Slam winner generally wants to get the points over quickly to get back on serve. Sabalenka is also likely to take risks by going for winners with her forehand.

The biggest challenge she’ll face against Pegula will be how she manages her aggression. For example, despite hitting 34 winners against Navarro, Sabalenka also had 34 unforced errors.

This will be the eighth meeting between the two players and Sabalenka holds a 5-2 advantage. However, three of her victories came on clay, which Sabalenka said might suit her game more than playing on hard courts.

There’s some thought that she expertly uses the surface to generate more spin on her racket to shift the ball further away from her opponents.

Sabalenka’s strokes are much purer on the hard court, which could allow Pegula to engage in more rallies.

Pegula vs. Sabalenka pick

Pegula might want to pop in the tape of Coco Gauff’s upset victory over Sabalenka in last year’s U.S. Open finals in which the Belarusian committed 46 unforced errors along with six double faults.

Pegula’s movement on the court has been impressive. She clearly grew stronger as the match wore on against Muchová.

If this match goes into a third set, all the pressure will be on Sabalenka to try and close it out.

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There’s nothing quite like trying to serve out a match for a Grand Slam when almost the entire stadium is against you.

As a result, Pegula is more than capable of converting some break chances to keep this match within 4.5 games. 

Best bet: Jessica Pegula +4.5 games (-125, DraftKings)