Last week, 16 men, all ranked outside of the world’s top 100 players, survived US Open Qualifying to advance to the main draw of the US Open. On Tuesday, eight of the qualifiers will play their first round matches. Despite being underdogs in many cases, there are some real opportunities for the qualifying survivors to score an upset.

A win in the main draw for a qualifier guarantees significant ranking points, possible increased notoriety and a payday of $140,000 with a chance for more. For some of these players, a main draw win can be career changing, and chances are out there. 

Significant Chances

Italian qualifier and world #101 Mattia Bellucci holds a ranking 75 spots higher than his opponent, Stan Wawrinka. While Wawrinka is a former US Open champion, he comes to this year’s event as a wild card and his recent play does not match his career stature while Bellucci cruised through three qualifying matches without losing a set. If Bellucci gets rolling, look for a wild Court 17 crowd to help spur on a notable win for the Italian qualifier.

Qualifiers Quentin Halys and Otto Virtanen actually square off against each other in Round 1. One of the fortunate quirks of the main draw schedule guarantees at least one of these qualifiers, ranked #119 and #125 respectively will advance to the second round. Well, fortunate for the qualifiers, less fortunate for stars like players like Mackenzie McDonald who comes to Queens ranked #140 in the world and faces #1 Janik Sinner Tuesday. In the matchup of two qualifying survivors, one man will leave ecstatic, one will see a dream chance slip through their racket.

Maybe…

Connecticut’s own Eliot Spizzirri narrowly escaped his three-set final qualifier to claim a spot in his first Grand Slam main draw. Hailing from the New York area, Spizzirri faces the younger, but more accomplished Alex Michelsen in the first round. Still, Michelson is barely in the world top 50 and does not have vast experience. If Spizzirri gets hot, the crowd will fuel the frenzy for the local upstart. Maybe…

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22-year-old Canadian qualifier Gabriel Diallo dodged all seeds and Top 80 players when he drew world #84 Jaume Munar for his first round match. Munar is only 1-6 on hard courts this year and is five years removed from his career high ranking of #52. Diallo stands 6’8” and may be able to impose himself on his smaller opponent. Maybe…

Very Unlikely

While upset opportunities exist for selected qualifiers on Tuesday, a few will have too much to handle. Li Tu cruised through the qualies dropping only one set, Timofey Skatov showed toughness by winning three consecutive 3-set matches to reach the main draw. Great stories, but their time in the main draw will be short as they match up against #3 seed Carlos Alcaraz and #7 seed Hubert Hurkacz.

Compared to Tu and Skatov, qualifier Hamad Medjedovic drew an “easy” first round match. Easy in comparison, but still difficult–the #137 ranked Serbian faces Fabian Marozsan, who reached a career high ranking of #36 earlier this year and enters the US Open at #51.

Qualifiers always face a rough road in the Grand Slams, but not impossible. Be on the lookout for some upsets on Tuesday.

Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports