UNC basketball will likely have to win ACC Tournament to make NCAA Tournament

UNC basketball will likely have to win ACC Tournament to make NCAA Tournament | Baxley

Posted by author February 11, 2025 Basketball

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It’s looking increasingly likely that UNC basketball will have to win the ACC Tournament to make the NCAA Tournament.

The Tar Heels were in a tough spot before their 85-65 loss at No. 23 Clemson on Monday night. Now, after its sixth loss in seven games against a top-25 squad, UNC (14-11, 7-6 ACC) is in a dire situation as it tries to avoid missing March Madness for the second time in three seasons.

To be blunt, the Tar Heels haven’t been an NCAA Tournament team since their home loss to Stanford. They probably weren’t a tournament-quality team before that defeat.

The Tigers (20-5, 12-2), who beat Duke before a quick-turnaround beatdown of the Tar Heels, led by as many as 26 points and didn’t face much pushback. The 20-point loss matched UNC’s worst in program history against Clemson. The other occurred in 1977, a year that finished with the Tar Heels playing for the national championship. Don’t bet on that happening in 2025.

The Heels have lost four straight road games and five of their last seven games overall. They lost six games against top 25 opponents by an average margin of 12.3 points.

UNC has made 53 appearances in the NCAA Tournament, second only to Kentucky’s 61. Only three of those Tar Heel teams (1990, 2000, 2015) had double-digit losses in the regular season. The 2024-25 team doesn’t appear to have what it takes to join that resilient group.

UNC basketball NET rankings, NCAA Tournament resume

Entering Monday’s game, UNC was included in six of the 88 bracket projections on Bracket Matrix. The Tar Heels arrived in Clemson at No. 46 in the NET rankings, with a 1-9 record against Quadrant 1 opponents. After UNC’s 10th Q1 loss, any bracket projection that includes the Heels shouldn’t be trusted.

Since the NCAA started using the NET rankings in the 2018-19 season, Drake (2021) is the only team to secure an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament with one Q1 victory.

Of the 20 squads to compete in the First Four, which features the lowest-seeded teams to earn an at-large bid, six of them had two Q1 victories, including Virginia last season and Notre Dame in 2022. The other 13 squads in that six-year span had at least three Q1 victories, including 11 with four or more.

UNC has seven games remaining in the regular season, but only one of those games – the regular-season finale against Duke on March 8 at the Smith Center – is a Quad-1 opportunity. The Blue Devils were up 32 on UNC at Cameron Indoor Stadium before coasting to a 17-point win.

With 11 losses and one Q1 victory, cutting down the nets in Charlotte may be the Tar Heels’ only route to the Big Dance. Otherwise, UNC is most certainly not going to be included in the NCAA Tournament.

Rodd Baxley covers Duke, North Carolina and N.C. State for The Fayetteville Observer as part of the USA TODAY Network. Follow his ACC coverage on X/Twitter or Bluesky: @RoddBaxley. Got questions regarding those teams? Send them to rbaxley@fayobserver.com.