Tuley’s Takes – NFL Week 13 Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:

First of all, Happy Thanksgiving from the Tuley’s Takes home office. We have a lot to be thankful for as football has been very good to us, starting with the dogs barking the first month of the NFL season. It’s been rough the past month, but our weekly “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio” has kept us profitable overall.

Unfortunately, we split 3-3 ATS with our Best Bets last week (winning on Browns +3.5 vs. Steelers on Thursday Night Football, Panthers +11 at Chiefs and Cowboys +10.5 at Commanders on Sunday, but losing on Colts +7.5 vs. Lions, Patriots +7 at Dolphins and 49ers +2 – before Brock Purdy declared out, though I still bet them +6.5 with Brandon Allen – at Packers. We also went 2-2 with our recommendations on our 2-team, 6-point teasers (hitting legs on Chargers +9 and Lions -1.5 but losing on 49ers +8 and Texans -1.5), but that doesn’t cut it with those bets. Note: hopefully, everyone passed on the 49ers’ teaser if you didn’t bet until the weekend.

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But enough looking back (except to learn from our mistakes). Let’s get to our takes for NFL Week 13, which kicks off with the traditional Thanksgiving Tripleheader. For newbies to these Tuley’s Takes columns, I’ll go over each game and try to come up with my Best Bet, but remember that “pass” is a legit option if there’s no value in the point spread. You don’t have to bet every game! However, I also give the aforementioned “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio” of 2-team, 6-point teasers and my patent-pending “Pool Play Percentages” for those in contests where you do have to pick every game.

Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET

Week 13 starts, of course, with the traditional early Thanksgiving game from Detroit. Due to my “dog or pass” approach and growing up as a Bears fan in the Chicago suburbs, I’m sure most regular readers are assuming I would have been all over the Bears when the line opened +10.5 or even at +10 earlier this week, but I’m going to pass and probably spend more of my Thursday morning putting in plays for my proxy clients and cooking my family’s turkey and ham Thanksgiving dinner. For starters, I’ve been burned by fading the Lions the last two weeks (though I did win going against them three weeks ago with the Texans +3.5) and don’t think this is a good spot to jump in front of that proverbial train again. Besides, I have no idea which Bears team is going to show up, the one that battled the Packers and Vikings to the wire the past two weeks or the one that didn’t show up in a 19-3 loss vs. the Patriots three weeks ago. For the record, it’s a hard pass with the line dipped to +9.5.

NFL Week 13 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Lions in all my rare SU and ATS contests that use Thursday games).

Thursday, 4:30 p.m. ET

Drew Lock vs. Cooper Rush. The schedule makers didn’t expect this bummer of a Thanksgiving matchup of also-rans with the Cowboys at 4-7 and the Giants at 2-9. If Tommy DeVito was still starting for the G-men, I would totally be sitting out this game after watching him not do a thing in the 30-7 loss vs. the Buccaneers on Sunday, but I give them a chance with Lock getting a full (well, half) week of practice. This line is only over a field goal because of the Cowboys’ 34-26 upset of the Commanders on Sunday, so the +3.5 is the play, but pass if you can only get +3.

NFL Week 13 Best Bet: Giants +3.5 (pool play: Giants 60/40 in ATS contests, lower if only offered +3 or +2.5, but Cowboys still 60/40 in SU pools).

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET

The Thanksgiving nightcap gives us the first of several lines that haven’t settled as of this writing on Wednesday afternoon. For newbies, that’s what the -3/-3.5 means in the header as several books dealing each line with added juice on the side you probably want! Just like with the Lions, I’ve been burned the last two weeks trying to fade the Dolphins as chalk (even though Tua Tagovailoa is my QB on my top fantasy team), but I’m back to backing them now in the underdog role I grabbed the hook at +3.5 and would advise you to do the same, even if needing the lay the added -120 juice, though I am calling for the outright upset at +150 or higher so maybe just go with the moneyline while fighting off sleep after your turkey dinner.

NFL Week 13 Best Bet: Dolphins +3.5 or +3, or +150 moneyline (pool play: Dolphins 60/40 in ATS contests, higher at +3.5, plus 55/45 in SU pools).

Friday, 3:00 p.m. ET

In Week 1, the NFL played its first-ever Friday game with the Packers facing the Eagles in Brazil, and now we get our first Black Friday game. I sound like a broken record, but the Chiefs tend to let teams stick around before pulling out their wins, just like we saw last week when we won with the Panthers +10.5 as the Chiefs won 30-27. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it (Wait, what? Is it broken or not? LOL). Anyway, don’t forget that the Raiders played their hated rivals close enough to cover as 9-point underdogs in a 27-20 loss just five weeks ago. And I don’t mind Aidan O’Connell stepping in for the injured Gardner Minshew (as long as it’s not Desmond Ridder).

NFL Week 13 Best Bet: Raiders +13 (pool play: Raiders 60/40 in ATS contests, but Chiefs still at least 90/10 in SU pools).

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

Moving to the main Sunday schedule, the advance line on this game last week was Commanders -8, but then it reopened at -6 on Sunday night after the Titans upset the Texans 32-27, and the Commanders suffered a tough loss to the Cowboys after rallying to pull within a point only to miss the PAT. That loss was nearly as brutal as the Bears’ loss to the Commanders five weeks ago on the Hail Mary, and it’s not lost on us that the Bears haven’t recovered since. I’m not saying Sunday’s loss will send the Commanders on a five-game losing streak like the Bears, but I definitely see this as a letdown spot. Besides, the Titans didn’t play that bad in losses to the Chargers and Vikings before their upset on Sunday, so they’re a really live dog here, even with the depressed line.

NFL Week 13 Best Bet: Titans +5.5 or +6 (pool play: Titans 60/40 in ATS contests, but Commanders still 67/33 in SU pools).

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

The advance line on this game was pick-’em last week, but the Chargers are now favored despite falling short in a 30-23 loss to the Ravens on Monday night. They led at halftime before getting run over in the second half, but I believe the line move is more due to bettors remembering the last thing they saw from the Falcons was a lackluster 38-6 loss in Denver before their bye week. Even though most people are seeing these teams as heading in opposite directions, I still see them pretty equal so this is a good spot to kick off this week’s “Tuley’s  Teaser Portfolio” as we can move the line through the key numbers of 3 and 7 to Falcons +7.5. Both teams also tend to play close games (I’ve written that several times, especially in regards to the Falcons), so all we need is a one-score game. Let’s use it with the other dogs in the “teaser zone”: Steelers +8.5 or +9 at Bengals, Patriots +8.5 or +9 vs. Colts, Jets +7.5 vs. Seahawks, Saints +8.5 or +9 vs. Rams and Eagles +9 at Ravens. Yes, a lot of TTF options this Sunday, so plenty for you to narrow down if you want to narrow down which combos to play more based on your level of confidence.

NFL Week 13 Best Bet: Falcons +7.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Chargers 55/45 in all SU and ATS contests).

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

With the Steelers (8-3) losing at the Browns and the Ravens (8-4) beating the Chargers, the AFC North is tightening up again. The Bengals (4-7) need to get hot to get back in the wild-card picture, but I’m not sure why they’re favored here. It’s tempting to take the Steelers (especially at +3), but the Bengals are dangerous (I wish they were the dog!), so I see the Steelers teased up over a TD as the stronger albeit safer play.

NFL Week 13 Best Bet: Steelers +8.5 or +9 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Steelers 55/45 in ATS contest, higher at higher numbers, but Bengals still 60/40 in SU pools).

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

These teams let me down last Sunday with the Colts and Patriots losing in routs vs. the Lions and Dolphins, respectively. It’s pretty much a coin-flip in my eyes on the spread, but again, we can tease the dog up over a TD in what should be a one-score game (though I decline to say it’ll be “good game,” but good enough if we cash).

NFL Week 13 Best Bet: Patriots +8.5 or +9 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Colts 60/40 in ATS contests, higher at -2.5, and 67/33 in SU pools).

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

The advance line on this game was Texans -7, but it has plummeted after they lost 32-27 to the Titans (Jaguars were on a bye, so nothing they did to impact the line move). Even though I’m still high on the Texans (I have them at 20-1 to win the Super Bowl from my VSiN column last February), I’m not opposed to fading them if I feel they’re favored by too many points, but I’m not willing the bite on the Jaguars, especially as the last time we saw them they were getting routed 52-6 by the Lions. If the line was still at 7, maybe I could talk myself into it, but not now.

NFL Week 13 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Texans 55/45 in ATS contests and 75/25 in SU pools).

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

The Vikings (9-2) are on a five-game winning streak since their Week 8 loss at the Rams to continue their impressive season, but it’s the Cardinals (6-5) that are actually a first-place team, though they fell into a tie with the Seahawks after losing 16-6 to those same Seahawks on Sunday. Dual-threat QB Kyler Murray makes the Cardinals’ offense go, but I’ve been just as impressed with the defense (allowing an average of just 21.5 points) of keeping them in games. Both teams obviously have playoff aspirations and I see this as a close game that should come down to the final possession and very likely decided by a field goal. Give me the dog with 3 points and the hook. 

NFL Week 13 Best Bet: Cardinals +3.5 (pool play: Cardinals 60/40 in ATS contests, though Vikings 60/40 in SU pools).

Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET

This game has had a change of favoritism as the advance line last week was Jets – 1 before the Seahawks pulled their minor upset of the Cardinals to move into a first-place tie in the NFC West. The Seahawks also upset the 49ers the prior week to get back in the race, while the Jets (3-8) have lost seven of their last eight games as the Aaron Rodgers comeback season has been a complete failure. Still, the Jets are good enough to stick around in most games (only blowout losses to the Steelers and Cardinals in the recent skid), so let’s tease them up over a TD and pray for another one-score game.

NFL Week 13 Best Bet: Jets +7.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Seahawks 55/45 in ATS contests and 60/40 in SU pools).

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

As stated above (multiple times), we cashed with the Panthers +10.5 in their 30-27 loss to the Chiefs on Sunday, but that doesn’t mean we’re looking to back them again (ya gotta pick your spots). That was more of a bet against the Chiefs laying an overinflated line. I often mention that I have several longtime readers who are not as allergic to chalk as I am, and if I pass on a dog, they see it as an implied endorsement to bet the favorite. I think that’s the case here, especially as we saw the Bucs come out of their bye week to take care of business in a 30-7 rout at the Giants at the same -6 line. I see the same thing happening here. Pass on the dog.

NFL Week 13 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Buccaneers 60/40 in ATS contests and at least 80/20 in SU pools).

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

We have yet another game in the teaser zone. I wish I had to gut to take the Saints plus the 2.5 or 3 points here, as they did look better after the coaching change and are now coming out of their bye week, but this does look like a spot for the Rams to get back on the winning track, so let’s just stick with the Saints in our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio and just need them to stay within one score.

NFL Week 13 Best Bet: Saints +8.5 or +9 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Saints 55/45 in ATS contests, especially at +3, but Rams 65/35 in SU pools).

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

This is the Sunday afternoon marquee game but should be in prime time. As great as the Ravens (8-4) look at times, the Eagles (9-2) are actually playing better overall right now (No. 3 in total offense behind the No. 1 Ravens, but Philly is No. 1 in total defense while Baltimore is No. 24 and carried by the offense). I’ve mentioned above about including the Eagles +9 in my teasers, but I’ll also take them plus the field goal as I have them favored on a neutral field (and regular readers know I’m not putting much stock in home-field advantage these days).

NFL Week 13 Best Bet: Eagles +3, plus Eagles +9 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Eagles 60/40 in ATS contests, though Ravens still 60/40 in SU pools).

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

The advance line on this game was only Bills -3.5 before the 49ers were blown out 38-10 by the Packers in Week 12. Granted, that was with Brandon Allen in at QB, but the line for this game (with Brock Purdy expected back) re-opened at Bills -6.5 and has steamed to -7. Sorry, but despite the fact that the 49ers (5-6) have underperformed most of this season and the last time we saw the Bills (9-2), they were beating the Chiefs 30-21, this is still an overadjustment and I’ll take the disrespected dog on the inflated spread.

NFL Week 13 Best Bet: 49ers +7 (pool play: 49ers 60/40 in ATS contests, but Bills still 70/30 in SU pools).

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET

This isn’t the sexiest Monday Night Football matchup, but the Broncos (7-5) have won two straight to get solidly in the wild-card hunt. And don’t forget that three weeks ago, they had a great shot to upset the Chiefs but had their last-second FG blocked. Having said all that, you know I’m not making a case for the chalk, especially as all of the above is giving us a fair price on a Jameis Winston-led Browns team that just upset the Steelers 24-19 last Thursday in the snow. There isn’t snow in the forecast for Monday in Denver, but it is going to be very cold, and that should level the playing field again and make the Browns live dogs again.

NFL Week 13 Best Bet: Browns +5.5 (pool play: Browns 60/40 in ATS contests, but Broncos still 65/35 in SU pools).

For more NFL Week 13 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 13 Hub exclusively on VSiN.