Tuley’s Takes – NFL Conference Championship Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:

College football season is behind us in the Tuley’s Takes home office and now we’re looking forward to the NFL’s version of the Final Four with the NFC and AFC Conference Championship Games on Sunday.

The divisional playoffs last weekend were very, very good to us. We started on Saturday afternoon with the Texans against the Chiefs, and even though our Texans +8 play posted here on Thursday has to be graded as a loser in the Chiefs’ 23-14 victory, we trust any regular followers know to shop around and that usually our dogs are getting more points closer to game time (especially with the way favorites have been cashing this season and chalk-eaters have been willing to lay any number as it’s bitten them in the rear so rarely) and were able to cash on the Texans +9.5 or at worst push on +9.

***Top NFL Resources***

*Join thousands of other sports bettors and unlock access to picks, public betting splits data, & the VSiN live video broadcast by upgrading to VSiN Pro. Grab your first month for less than $10.*

I wasn’t able to pull the trigger on the Commanders +9.5 at the Lions in the Saturday nightcap and invoked the “pass” part of “dog or pass,” but at least I didn’t bet the Lions in their 45-31 loss as they were unceremoniously ousted as the NFC’s No. 1 seed.

We went with the “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio” on Sunday, with the Eagles -0.5 and Bills +7. That was the right call as the Eagles prevailed 28-22 over the Rams with it falling right around the 6-point spread that was available for much of the week before closing Eagles -7. The Bills didn’t need any points as they pulled the minor upset as 1.5-point home underdogs in their 27-25 victory, though just like the Eagles game, it was much less of a sweat with the extra points of the teaser in pocket.

After favorites dominated the regular season (especially after the first month), faves and dogs are 5-5 straight up so far in the playoffs, while dogs actually lead 6-3-1 ATS with the push in the Chiefs’ 23-14 win vs. the Texans as I graded the ViewFromVegas Consensus Closing Line at Chiefs -9.

For those interested, home teams are 7-2 SU and 5-3-1 ATS, with the Vikings-Rams wild-card round game not included as it was moved to a neutral site in Glendale, Ariz., due to the wildfires in Southern California. Unders have dominated at 6-3-1 with the push in the Bills’ 27-25 win vs. the Ravens, landing on the consensus closing total of 52 points.

Enough looking back. Below are my “takes” on the conference title games. We’ll use our usual “dog or pass” approach to (hopefully) find live dogs like the last two weekends, plus I’ll continue my patent-pending “Pool Play Percentages,” as I’ve heard from more readers who like to hear me quantify the team’s SU and ATS chances for their own money line wagers, plus I’ve entered more postseason picking contests this year and use them as well.

Sunday, 3 p.m. ET

The Commanders are the Cinderella team that everyone is falling in love with, and I’m not so sure that midnight will strike. The problem is that I feel like I’m on a very public underdog, but I have to bet them as I truly believe they’re the right side in this NFC title game at anything over a field goal. The team stats pretty much point to this being a lot closer to pick ’em as the Jayden Daniels-led Washington offense actually averages more points per game at 29.1 compared to 27 for Philadelphia, though the Eagles have the better defense, allowing just 17.6 compared to the Commanders’ 23.3. That alone would have me taking the points with the live underdog, but I’m more convinced this is a coin-flip of a game as these two division rivals split during the regular season, with the Eagles winning the first meeting 26-18 (covering as 4.5-point home favorites) in the Week 11 Thursday nighter but then the Commanders rallying to beat the Eagles 36-33 as 4-point home underdogs to snap their 10-game winning streak in Week 16. The latter matchup is more indicative of how these two teams are currently playing, so I expect another close game that comes down to a field goal either way.

NFL Conference Championship Best Bet: Commanders +6 or better (Commanders 60/40 in ATS contest, but Eagles still 67/33 in SU pools).

Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET

Here we are again with the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs hosting the AFC title game – and against the Bills, who have had their number in the regular season but not in the playoffs. Is this finally the Bills’ year? I really think it is. Regular readers know I’ve written nearly every single week that the Chiefs always tend to let teams stick around before pulling out their wins, and we’ve been very successfully fading them by taking the points, including last Saturday. The concern here, obviously, is that the Chiefs could do exactly what they’ve been doing, and the point spread here isn’t likely to come into play. The unspoken fact here is that the Bills have the better offense this season, averaging 30.7 points per game to the Chiefs, averaging a mere 22.7. As I’ve also written several times, the Chiefs actually win more due to their defense, which is No. 3 in the league, allowing just 21.9 points per game. The Chiefs are the Chiefs, so we understand why they are favored, but I actually see the Bills as the better overall team, so we’ll call for the outright upset and take the points. Note for those who have been profiting from my “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio” all season: I’m not a big fan of teasing both games here, though I wouldn’t talk anyone out of Eagles PK/Bills +8.

NFL Conference Championship Best Bet: Bills +2 (Bills 60/40 in ATS contests, and what the heck, in SU pools).

For more NFL Conference Championship analysis, visit the NFL Conference Championship betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.