The Portland Trail Blazers currently hold an 8-14 record, good (or bad) for seventh overall in the NBA standings. They’re jockeying for position with several other non-playoffs-bound teams for 2025 NBA Draft Lottery odds, hoping to secure a premium pick in a deep draft that presumably will include Duke forward Cooper Flagg and Rutgers guard Ace Bailey.

By virtue of their seventh position, the Blazers have a 7.5% chance of earning the first overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, a 32% chance of rising into the top four positions.

The maximum possible chance of finishing first overall will belong to the worst three teams in the league. Currently those are the Washington Wizards, Utah Jazz, and New Orleans Pelicans. Franchises in those three spots will have a 14% chance at the first pick, a 52% chance of finishing between first and fourth. Thus Portland’s odds are currently about half of the possible max.

The Blazers are only one or two losses away from the teams currently occupying the fourth through sixth slots, however. The odds for receiving the first overall pick from the sixth position are 9%, rising to 10.5% for fifth position and 12.5% from fourth.

Similarly, though, the Blazers are only one or two losses ahead of the next four teams behind them in the standings: the Detroit Pistons, Indiana Pacers, Sacramento Kings, and Brooklyn Nets. The odds for those positions ascending to the top of the order drop to 6%, 4.5%, 3%, and 2% respectively.

So far, then, the Blazers are doing pretty well considering some of the unexpected games they’ve won. They have the potential to add another 5% to their odds with extended losing (a 66.7% increase in their chances based on a 7.5% start) but they could also lose up to 5.5% (a 73.3% decrease) if they win more than the teams behind them.