Locks

No Locks today – Merry Christmas ya filthy animals.

Degenerates

NCAA Football South Florida/San Jose St First Half Under 32.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN

You just had to bet something even though it’s Christmas Eve, didn’t you? Don’t worry, I’m right there with you, and since this is the only option on the board, let’s dig into a derivative market. My sense here is that this will end up being a slower start for two main reasons. The first is that there’s one key opt-out for this game and it’s Nick Nash, the Biletnikoff finalist and possibly the best slot receiver in the country.

San Jose State had a great offense this season built around Nash and high-volume passing, so taking 104 receptions, 1382 yards, and 16 touchdowns worth of production away is going to be a shock to their system. So I think they get off to a slower start tonight as they adjust to life without their superstar, and that should slow things down in the first half.

The other angle is South Florida’s ability to run the ball and control clock. There’s word that excellent running QB Byrum Brown might return for the Bulls tonight, and that gets them back to being able to run inside zone and counter plays to perfection. Going up against a defense that’s the worst in the country against those sets should mean USF is able to grind the game down. Keeping SJSU’s quick-strike offense off the field will be key, and I think the recipe is there to keep this lower-scoring early on.

Tiny Nick has gained +70.6 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.