Locks

NFL/NCAA Football (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Pittsburgh Steelers +13 @ Baltimore Ravens: 3:30 PM CT on FOX

You just can’t go against Mike Tomlin as a sizable underdog, or the Steelers as underdogs against the Ravens, or the underdog in this rivalry. Tomlin has always crushed it when catching points, but he truly shines when that happens in a game against Baltimore as he’s 6-0 ATS when catching more than 3 points.

That’s a big part of why the Steelers have never failed to cover against the Ravens when catching 4 or more points, going 8-0 ATS in franchise history. Since 2015, the underdog in this rivalry has gone 16-2-1 ATS with some truly narrow results between them. Tomlin seems to have the formula to make Lamar Jackson look human, so with this extra padding on the number I think we’ll see Pittsburgh keep it close enough today.

Clemson Tigers +19.5 @ Texas Longhorns: 3:00 PM CT on TNT

I think Texas being a near two-touchdown favorite in this game is a little excessive, so getting the extra cushion of the teased number is a lot of value. It just seems reckless to fade a team like Clemson that not only has plenty of championship level football experience, but is now playing with house money after their wild ACC title game win. I’m also seeing Texas as being a little overrated coming into this game, especially with their difficulties at key positions.

The Longhorns were fortunate to get the schedule they did this season, as their first year in the SEC didn’t come with having to face many elite offenses. The only opponent close to the talent level they’ll see today was Georgia, and they lost to the Bulldogs twice. With Quinn Ewers both hobbled and struggling, plus Kelvin Banks Jr uncertain for today, the excellent Clemson defensive line should cause enough problems to slow Texas down. And with their offense in a groove lately, expect the Tigers to keep this competitive and stay within a massive number here.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) UC Irvine -6.5 @ Duquesne (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:30 PM CT on ESPN+

Irvine is basically crushing anyone that isn’t a high-major program, and that’s what they’ll see today. The Anteaters are 9-0 straight up and 7-2 ATS against all mid-major opponents this season, winning by an average margin of 13.2 points per game. They rely heavily on their defense which is ranked 7th nationally in adjusted efficiency, and they should have no trouble shutting down a Duquesne team that can’t shoot and plays slowly.

The Dukes have 3 wins on the season, all against teams outside the top-225 at KenPom, so this tough Irvine squad will actually be the highest-rated opponent they’ve seen yet. I wouldn’t factor anything in for home court here considering who Duquesne has already lost to at home this season, so I’m seeing the Irvine train keep rolling this afternoon.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) San Diego Team Total Under 64.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN+

This has been an extremely profitable angle that I’m not letting go by the wayside today. San Diego’s offense is atrocious, and should stay that way in this battle of San Diego against UCSD. The Toreros are nearing rock bottom offensively, down to 354th in adjusted efficiency and 338th in effective field goal rate. And they’re up against a solid defense here from UCSD as the Tritons rank 80th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Their one weakness defensively is the three-ball, but that’s not something San Diego can exploit as they don’t take many three’s and are 357th in percentage when they do. This should be an easy game for UCSD to clamp down in, and the cross-town rivalry of it should create a slower-paced game where the Toreros come up short on their isolated total again.

Degenerates

NCAA Basketball Fairleigh Dickinson/Minnesota Under 146 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:00 PM CT on BTN

Fairleigh Dickinson enters this game with one of the worst defenses in the country, ranked 355th in adjusted defensive efficiency which is something even Minnesota’s offense can take advantage of. But to the extent that’s needed to reach this high of a total is something I’m pretty skeptical about given how the Gophers have played all season.

They’ve been playing at an absolute crawl this year, with the third-slowest adjusted tempo in the country. That has caused their non-conference games to go 7-2 to the under with 123.3 points on average. I just don’t think they shoot it well enough or play fast enough to create the kind of game needed to reach this total, so I’ll take a shot at the under today.

Tiny Nick has gained +73.3 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.