Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) San Antonio Spurs -2.5 @ Utah Jazz (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on KJZZ

The Spurs have an opportunity to gain some ground in the NBA Cup group play here, and I don’t think they waste it. These teams are headed in opposite directions, and San Antonio has done well against the Jazz in their meetings this season. The Spurs just beat the Jazz handily last week without Victor Wembanyama in the lineup, so his being back for this game should give them an even bigger advantage.

The Spurs are playing team basketball right now while the Jazz mostly go through the motions in what appears to be a tanking season. San Antonio is also the only team that will put in effort defensively here as the Jazz are 28th in defensive rating, so that should give the Spurs what they need to get this win and cover.

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Kent St @ Buffalo -22 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Kent State is the worst team in FBS. I know it, you should know it, and I’m quite sure they know it. Their winless season mercifully comes to an end tonight, and I’m willing to bet here that they’re just glad it’s over. I see that meaning they simply go through the motions tonight, and that spells blowout against just about any opponent.

Buffalo isn’t particularly great by any means, but I’m sure they’re licking their chops to pad stats against an awful opponent. Everyone in the conference does it, as Kent State has a minus-23.1 average margin in MAC games, and minus-26.3 in their 3 road games. This team has no ability to stop anything, so when the rout begins and this game snowballs, Buffalo will run away with an easy cover.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Stanford Team Total Over 71.5 (+100; Odds via BetMGM): 6:00 PM CT on truTV

I feel like I’m repeating myself, but here we go again with irrational numbers and valuation in a Grand Canyon game. The Antelopes simply struggle on defense in a way that is very different from how they played last year, and books have not figured out how to line them properly as a result. They’ve allowed every opponent to go over this total, and their lone power conference opponent dropped 87 on them.

Now they face a Stanford team that can really shoot, so their effective field goal defense rank of 286th and opponent three-point percentage of 347th are going to be major liabilities. The Cardinal are also ranked 56th in adjusted offensive efficiency, which is the highest of any opponent GCU has seen this year. The neutral site creates a little uncertainty, but in a lower-total game I’m pretty confident in Stanford’s ability to continue this team total streak against the Lopes.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) North Dakota St/Samford Over 157.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN+

This should be an absolute three-point fest, and if any of those are dropping tonight it will push this game over the high total. NDSU and Samford are both top-15 in three-point attempts, and top-25 in the percentage of their points they get from beyond the arc. These teams also struggle on the defensive end, with NDSU ranked 312th and Samford 240th in adjusted defensive efficiency, so launching those three’s will be far more important than guarding them.

Samford being at home should be able to dictate style, and use their 8th-fastest adjusted tempo to pull NDSU out of their plodding style. If they succeed in generating more possessions that way, then just an average night from beyond the arc for these squads will result in a ton of points.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Kansas/Duke Under 149.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN

I’m not convinced that either of these teams are deserving of the hype they’ve gotten in this young season. But what a hyped matchup like this on a neutral floor in Vegas tends to do is draw a high total and lots of public action on the over out of excitement. But what I do know about these teams is they’re much more defensive-minded than what this total is implying.

Kansas checks in at 14th in adjusted defensive efficiency, while Duke leads the country in that metric along with ranking 8th in points allowed. I think this is a tough matchup for the Kansas offense that’s extremely reliant on scoring from inside the arc. The Blue Devils are 15th in two-point percentage defense and just held an Arizona team to 55 points that’s very tall and similarly styled to Kansas. With neither playing at a particularly fast pace, don’t expect as much offense as this total and public bettors would like.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +72.8 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.