Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves Team Total Over 116.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North

The Wolves got over this total on Thursday in what appeared to be a game where the offense took strides, and I think they do it again with a bad defense coming to town. Last season saw Minnesota regularly beat up on bad competition at Target Center, with plenty of offensive eruptions. So a Raptors team that is not trying to win this season, and is coming in for the second leg of a back-to-back, should be easy pickings for the Wolves. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a statement game from them in the home opener, so I’ll be on this isolated over.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Naz Reid Over 18.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

If this game does turn into something of a blowout, then Reid will be getting a lot of minutes and involvement late in the game against a bad team that’s given up by that point. Two Words.

 

NBA (0.75 Unit) Boston Celtics First Half Team Total Over 61.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on NBCS-Boston

The Celtics owe the scheduling gods a thank you for setting them up with such an easy start to this season. Facing a bad Pistons team here, that is on the second leg of a back-to-back with travel, should allow Boston to run wild early in this game. The Pistons just gave up 65 points before halftime last night, so this defense is not equipped to handle the typical Celtics barrage. And to see this total coming in where it is makes me even more confident since Boston has put up 74 and 64 first half points in their games so far, and I think it continues here.

 

NCAA Football (1 Unit) Notre Dame/Navy First Half Over 25.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 11:00 AM CT on ABC

With the spread in this game being bet down from about 18 to where it is now at 13.5, it confirms to me that Navy is going to hang in with the Irish today. The Midshipmen are the second-highest first half scoring team this season, and while the Notre Dame defense is a different kind of test, I think they’re built to exploit some weaknesses. The Irish struggle to defend power and dive concepts, which Navy runs extremely well, plus this is no longer just a triple-option offense with Blake Horvath at quarterback.

I think Navy goes all out to try and score early points in this one, and they’ll need to with Notre Dame likely to carve up their defense. The Irish want to keep it on the ground with read-option runs, and those have been a major weakness of the Navy defense. Both of these offenses tend to slow down in second halves, so with a relatively low total here I’m looking to isolate the first half for plenty of points.

 

NCAA Football (1 Unit) Tulane/North Texas Over 68.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 11:00 AM CT on ESPN2

These are two highly explosive offenses, with North Texas 6th and Tulane 15th in scoring this season. Putting them on the field together looks to me like a game where they’ll trade touchdowns all day long, so getting 10 end zone trips to clear this total doesn’t seem like a big ask. Not only are these teams explosive offensively they’re also efficient, especially Tulane who ranks 3rd in yards per point.

While Tulane is a running team and North Texas a passing team, I don’t think either defense is suited to slow anything down, especially the Mean Green who are 125th in points allowed. Both defenses really struggle in the red zone, so with plenty of scoring opportunities likely in this one, I think both teams cash them in enough to clear the big number.

 

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Baylor Team Total Over 36.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on ESPN+

This Baylor offense is really clicking now that things have been fully handed over to Sawyer Robertson at quarterback. The junior was outstanding last week against a weak Texas Tech defense, and today will see an even worse defensive unit. Oklahoma State is down to 120th nationally in opponent yards per play, being gashed by all of their conference opponents and giving up 42, 38, and 38 points the past 3 weeks. The Cowboys have been very easy to throw on, so if Baylor is looking to hang a big number behind Robertson like last week, they won’t have much trouble and I see an output in the 40’s for the Bears here.

 

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Texas @ Vanderbilt +18.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:15 PM CT on SEC Network

Vanderbilt as an underdog, particularly at home, is a situation where I have to automatically back them. The Commodores are 4-0 ATS when catching points this season, winning three of those games outright including the crazy one against Alabama. With another highly ranked team visiting Nashville today, I expect a big home field advantage from the raucous environment, and this strange number looks hard for Texas to cover.

The Longhorns are in a bounce back spot after their first loss, but laying this many points on the road is a big ask, especially with Vandy’s track record. It’s a pretty low total as well, so catching a big number like this with the home team makes me feel confident from a correlation standpoint, and I’ll gladly take all this candy with a team that’s proven to be live in any game.

 

NCAA Football (1 Unit) Kansas/Kansas State Over 54.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN2

The Kansas offense looked bad early in the season, but I think it’s trending in the right direction and showed big strides after their bye week. Hanging 42 on a good Houston defense last week tells me Jalon Daniels and company have figured it out, but the Jayhawk defense is still one of the more vulnerable units in the country, ranking 82nd in opponent yards per point.

An extremely efficient Kansas State offense should cut right through the Jayhawks tonight, especially with the Wildcats looking to make up for lost time after their ugly loss at BYU, scoring 39.3 PPG since. But K-State isn’t nearly as good defensively as they’ve been in previous seasons, so this rivalry matchup should produce a high-scoring affair.

 

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

 

 

Tiny Nick has gained +79.8 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.