Locks

NFL (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars)

Cleveland Browns @ Philadelphia Eagles -1.5: 12:00 PM CT on FOX

Ok NFL, I’ve had just about enough of your nonsense with awful teams winning outright as underdogs of more than a touchdown. It’s really cramping my teaser style, but I’m sticking to the Stanford Wong principle here of moving this number through the most key numbers. I don’t want to lay the full game number due to the insane ATS trends of big dogs, plus Jalen Hurts has been awful as a favorite lately. But this Eagles team, healthy and off the bye where Sirianni is 4-1 straight up, should be far too much for Cleveland to handle. I think Philly scores at will, and I just can’t see Deshaun Watson keeping pace.

Arizona Cardinals +12.5 @ Green Bay Packers: 12:00 PM CT on FOX

There is plenty of reason to back the Cardinals on the standard spread here, but being able to get this many points is tough to pass up. Kyler Murray is elite as an underdog at 27-16-2 ATS in his career. That includes an amazing 11-3-2 ATS when he’s on the road and catching 4 or more points, so this adjusted number should be well within his ability to at least sneak in the back door. Arizona’s offense is very dangerous with Trey McBride back in the lineup as they showed last week, and Green Bay is still facing key injury problems, so I’ll back the Cardinals here to keep another one close on the road.

Atlanta Falcons/Carolina Panthers Over 39.5: 3:25 PM CT on FOX

The Panthers have become an over machine with the competence that Andy Dalton has brought to the quarterback position. They’re finally doing their part to get over totals, although an awful defense ranked 28th in EPA/play and success rate is still going to let basically every opponent name their score. An Atlanta offense that kept showing improvement and finally broke through with the Kirk Cousins experiment last game should have no trouble here. But the Falcons defense has not been impressive either, ranking just 23rd in EPA/play and 27th in success rate, so Dalton and company should be able to turn this into a relative shootout that gets over the adjusted total.

NFL (0.5 Unit) Indianapolis Colts/Tennessee Titans Under 43 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on CBS

Keep a close eye on who ends up starting at quarterback for the Colts in this game. Things are trending towards Anthony Richardson returning today, but might be a game-time decision. If Richardson does start, then I like the under here, but if Joe Flacco gets another week at the helm then I’m not jumping in. That’s because the Titans defense, ranked 1st in success rate and 7th in EPA/play against the pass, has feasted against bad quarterbacks.

That’s what Anthony Richardson is at this point, especially with several of his most important weapons banged up today. Jonathan Taylor will be out, and his top receivers Michael Pittman and Josh Downs are questionable, so it should be tough for Indy to move the ball. With Will Levis on the other side, even a putrid Colts defense should hold up enough to keep this under the total, as I expect both teams to keep it on the ground today.

NFL Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.5 Unit – Jayden Daniels Over 9.5 Rush Attempts (+100)

1 Unit – Austin Ekeler Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Justice Hill Over 35.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Zach Ertz Over 3.5 Receptions (-110)

0.5 Unit – Dalton Schultz Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Dalton Schultz Over 3.5 Receptions (-110)

0.25 Unit – AJ Brown Anytime TD (+150)

0.5 Unit – Saquon Barkley Over 85.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Tony Pollard Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Calvin Ridley Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – DeAndre Hopkins Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Trey McBride Over 5.5 Receptions (+105)

0.75 Unit – Jayden Reed Over 68.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Alvin Kamara Over 69.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Brock Bowers Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Najee Harris Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Courtland Sutton Anytime TD (+265)

0.5 Unit – Jahmyr Gibbs Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – David Montgomery Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Jahmyr Gibbs Over 12.5 Rush Attempts (-110)

0.75 Unit – Dak Prescott Over 38.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

0.75 Unit – Dak Prescott Over 25.5 Pass Completions (-110)

1 Unit – Chuba Hubbard Over 66.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Chuba Hubbard Over 3.5 Receptions (+130)

0.5 Unit – Xavier Legette Over 3.5 Receptions (-110)

0.5 Unit – Andy Dalton Over 33.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

0.25 Unit – Andy Dalton Over 1.5 Passing TD’s (+145)

0.5 Unit – Joe Burrow Over 24.5 Pass Completions (-110)

0.5 Unit – Tyrone Tracy Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Jamarr Chase Over 75.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Wandale Robinson Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Darius Slayton Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Lynx +7.5 @ NY Liberty (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:00 PM CT on ABC

I figured the Lynx would have a tough time with the rest and travel disadvantages they were facing in Game 1, and it sure showed for a majority of the game before their epic comeback. But this team is not going anywhere, they match up very well with the Liberty, and now have had a couple days to catch their breath. So naturally, the books decided to hang the biggest number we’ve seen in any meeting between these teams on the season when the Lynx have already gone 4-1 ATS and straight up.

New York is in a situational spot here where the home team tends to cover, but I just don’t think oddsmakers are truly understanding how good the Lynx are. It would be unlikely to see them bring a 2-0 lead back to Target Center, but this team deserves far more credit in the market than they’re getting, and that has me taking the points.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +81.9 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.