Locks

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Utah Team Total Over 26.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:30 PM CT on ESPN

It was announced yesterday that Utah quarterback Cam Rising would return for this game, and not a moment too soon. The Utes have struggled offensively without the constantly injured Rising at the helm, only getting over this team total against FCS Southern Utah and a Utah State team with one of the worst defenses in the country. I think that changes tonight though, as this Arizona State defense has gotten progressively worse week by week, allowing their opponents to go over this total in 3 straight. Utah coach Kyle Wittingham has always enjoyed making statements, so I think he turns Rising loose against a vulnerable defense and hangs a big number tonight.

MLB (0.5 Unit) San Diego Padres First 5 Innings ML @ LA Dodgers (+120; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on FOX

I’m honestly astounded by this line, as the Padres deserve to be favored at least in the first 5 innings tonight. With Yu Darvish on the mound, San Diego has the decided pitching advantage over LA starting Yoshinobu Yamamoto again. The veteran Padres righty has dominated the Dodger bats in his career, with a cumulative .195 batting average and .594 OPS. And in 3 starts against LA this season, Darvish has compiled a 1.72 ERA and .145 opponent on-base average.

The Dodgers have simply had no answer for Darvish, and only have one player with a .250 batting average against him, Freddie Freeman, who appears to be out with his ankle injury. So if the Dodgers can’t produce runs, they won’t be able to support Yamamoto who was terrible against the Padres last Saturday. A rookie starter in a winner-take-all game is not what the Dodgers want here, and I think the Padres take at least an early lead tonight.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Fernando Tatis Jr Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105; Odds via DraftKings)

The man is a menace, having gone over on this prop in every postseason game so far. That includes Saturday when he went 2-for-2 with a double against Yamamoto, so a plus-juice price on this bases prop is close to stealing.

Degenerates

NCAA Football UNLV/Utah State Over 66.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on CBSSN

I mentioned above how Utah State has one of the worst defenses in the country, and it truly is in just about every aspect. They’re allowing the 3rd-most points nationally, even giving up 45 to an awful Temple offense. They’re also particularly terrible against the run, ranking 127th in rushing yards per game and per carry, which will matter tonight against a UNLV team with the 4th-most run-heavy offense in the country.

I see the Rebels running through them all night, and the Aggies responding by turning Spencer Petras and this up-tempo passing attack loose. UNLV showed its vulnerability against the pass last week, so even if it’s just in garbage time I see Utah State scoring plenty of their own. While it’s an extremely high total, these teams have the offensive weapons and defensive ineptitude to make it worth a small bet.

Tiny Nick has gained +83.7 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.