Locks

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Dream/NY Liberty Under 156.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN

These teams have been pretty consistent in staying under this total on the season, including Game 1 of the playoffs on Sunday. The 5 meetings throughout the year have gone 4-1 under tonight’s number with 152.6 points on average. It’s been a common theme down the stretch of the season for New York to see lower-scoring games as the Liberty defense has clamped down.

That excellent defense going up against the league’s lowest-scoring team in Atlanta, who is shorthanded without Aerial Powers or Cheyenne Parker-Tyus, should produce another low-scoring result. This best-of-3 series can end tonight, and I think the Liberty put the Dream out of their misery with another strong defensive effort.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Seattle Storm @ Las Vegas Aces -4 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on ESPN

I think the Aces might have woken up down the stretch of the season, and more specifically down the stretch of Sunday’s Game 1 against Seattle. In their final 10 games of the season, Las Vegas was victorious in 9 of them, and then they got a playoff wakeup call after a slow start on Sunday. Holding Seattle and their very good offense to just 2 points in the 4th quarter was shocking, and it’s momentum that I think carries over to tonight. When the Aces get an advantage on a team they press it, so I see them starting this game the way they closed Sunday’s and making up for that slow start.

MLB (0.5 Unit) SD Padres/LA Dodgers First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 9:10 PM CT on TBS

This might as well be playoff baseball one week early, and I see this game being played as though it was. With the NL West and even the top seed in the NL playoffs up for grabs between these teams, I think we see the kind of close-to-the-vest baseball that defines October, and that means a lower-scoring game.

It helps to have two strong starting pitchers which is the case today. Michael King might be San Diego’s second-best starter, and he’s been very good on the road with a 2.80 ERA and .221 opponent on-base average. As a righty, he puts the Dodgers in their weaker split, and I think he can hold down an elite offense that has been prone to slower starts lately.

The Dodgers will counter with rookie Landon Knack, who will have to contend with a hot Padres lineup. But they’ve never seen him before, and Knack has excellent numbers at home of a 3.00 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and .168 opponent on-base average. These teams are 6-4 under this number in the season series, and with the higher stakes today I think they play another tight one early on.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +90.4 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.