Locks

NFL (0.5 Unit) Green Bay Packers +2.5 vs Philadelphia Eagles (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:15 PM CT on Peacock

I think this will be an excellent game between two teams that could very well meet again in the NFC Championship game this winter. But I’ve been high on Green Bay ever since last season’s second half rise and demolition of my Cowboys in the playoffs. If this team continues that growth behind the development of Jordan Love, they’ll be a strong candidate to make the Super Bowl. As a very well-rounded team with a lot of continuity from last season, I think they have an edge on an Eagles squad that’s trying to hit the reset button.

Two new coordinators take over after last season’s meltdown, so there might be some early growing pains in Philly, especially for Jalen Hurts who will be asked to throw a lot more in Kellen Moore’s system. And until I see a change with my own eyes, the Eagles defense, especially in the secondary, is a liability that can be exploited by Love and his quartet of talented wide receivers. This number has been creeping towards the Packers as we’ve gotten closer to today, telling me sharp money likes Green Bay over the more public Eagles, and I’ll take the points here with an expectation that the Pack can win it outright.

Bonus Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.5 Unit – Jordan Love Over 256.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Jordan Love Over 22.5 Completions (-110)

0.5 Unit – Jayden Reed Over 45.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – DeVonta Smith Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Romeo Doubs Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Romeo Doubs Alt Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (+130)

0.25 Unit – Romeo Doubs Alt Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (+210)

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Indiana Fever Team Total Under 84.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ION

The Fever have been on fire lately, with Caitlin Clark dragging them from the bottom of the standings to a playoff berth, and it’s an excellent story. But a team that can pump the brakes on this hot streak is the Lynx and their defense, which has been consistent in how they’ve defended Indiana this season and overall in recent weeks.

Minnesota is still second in points allowed, and first in both field goal percentage and three-point percentage defense, a big key against Clark. That’s helped them to hold Indiana to 81 and 80 points in the two meetings, below the Fever’s season average of 84.0 PPG. And since the season picked back up, the Lynx have turned up the defense, allowing 79.5 PPG and holding opponents 6-2 under this total. Indiana has torched poor defenses in this stretch, but the better teams have held them under this number and I think the Lynx do exactly that.

MLB (0.5 Unit) KC Royals First 5 Innings Team Total Over 2.5 (+120; Odds via Caesars): 7:10 PM CT on Bally Sports North

Kansas City ran into great pitching at just the wrong time, sending them on a 1-7 run where they only scored 2.6 runs per game. So I’m guessing they’ll be glad to see Zebby Matthews coming to town, as the Twins rookie might be easy pickings for this offense that’s still elite. The Royals are a top-10 scoring offense, rank 3rd in runs per game at home this season, and they also average 2.7 runs in the first 5 innings at home. Matthews may have shown his true self last time out in getting shelled for 9 runs, so no matter the final result of the game I think the Royals do some damage early on and I like the plus-juice return here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +101.1 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.