Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves/OKC Thunder First Quarter Over 56 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on NBA TV

Changing the venue is not going to do much to change my opinion on this pick from yesterday. Especially if I’m getting a better number, as this total is a point lower than yesterday’s game. Why the NBA has to schedule these back-to-backs with travel is beyond me, but the high-scoring, late-night, and tiring game from yesterday should weaken defensive legs a little for tonight. I’m basically sold at this point that the Wolves will be a first quarter over team in most spots, and they simply aren’t priced that way so I’m jumping in again.

NBA (0.75 Unit) LA Clippers/Detroit Pistons Over 224 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports Detroit

This total is priced appropriately for one of the teams being a top defensive squad in the NBA, as the Clippers rank 3rd in defensive rating. But here they’re up against a red-hot Pistons offense, and I think it will be a challenge for them. Detroit has gone nuclear lately, averaging 125.3 PPG in their past 11 games, and I think that hot offense stays hot against a Clippers defense that hasn’t been as solid on the road. LA is also 8-2 to the over in their past 10 games, so their high-scoring trend is a good thing to add to Detroit’s scoring binge. Add in the fact that both teams are on a back-to-back with travel tonight, and I see defense lacking in a game with a very moderate total.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Portland Trail Blazers/Utah Jazz Over 231.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on KATU

This total is on the rise at every shop, so be sure to grab this lower number at Fanduel that hasn’t adjusted yet. But I’m seeing another game similar to the first two meetings this season that hit 240 and 242 points between two teams who are most likely to play out the string the rest of the season. That means more offense than defense, and these teams have trended in that direction anyway.

Utah has gone over this total in 8 straight games, with those averaging 246.0 points so both their offense and defense are playing how you’d want to keep cashing overs. The Jazz have the worst defensive rating in the league and Portland ranks 23rd, so that side of the court will not be the priority. With these teams having proven that they can score against each other at a high level, I like the opportunity here with a reachable total.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Bellarmine/Stetson Over 150.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Defense is not going to be a thing in this game, and that makes the only question how Stetson performs offensively. The Hatters have not been great on offense this season, but have shown improvement the past couple of games. And they know how to score against Bellarmine, having dropped 81 on them in the first meeting.

That’s not particularly difficult since Bellarmine still ranks 3rd-worst in the whole country for adjusted defensive efficiency and 2nd-worst in opponent effective field goal rate. The Knights can actually shoot though, ranked 65th in effective field goal rate, and face a Stetson defense that’s not much better, ranked 357th in adjusted efficiency. So I feel confident that Stetson can do enough offensively here, and these two horrific defenses will take care of the rest to get over a total that’s well below metrics site projections.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +72.9 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.