Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Denver Nuggets/Minnesota Timberwolves Over 228.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:00 PM CT on ABC

The Wolves aren’t exactly an over team this season, actually stuck right on .500 against the total. But Denver certainly cashes frequently for over bettors, going 28-16 for the 3rd-best record in the league, along with the highest plus/minus to the total. I’m seeing the Nuggets be the pace-setter to a large extent here, especially considering how wild some of their recent games have gotten in the points department.

The Wolves aren’t going to intentionally get into a track meet, but they tend to find themselves in higher-scoring affairs against the better offenses and faster-paced opponents. With the first meeting in November hitting 235 points, I’ll count on Denver’s tendency for craziness to be a big factor here.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Boston Celtics/Dallas Mavericks Over 224 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 4:30 PM CT on ABC

Let’s hope this isn’t anything like the NBA Finals from last June where these teams barely reached 200 combined points on a nightly basis. That was championship stakes though, and apparently nobody in the sharp community believes we’ll see a repeat of that today. Nothing but over money has come in on this game, driving it up several points from the opener, and I still think it has value here.

With Dallas so thin in their rotation, a usually strong defense will continue to struggle, especially against a Boston team off an ugly loss. Getting run out by the Lakers on national TV can’t be sitting well with them, and another national TV game where they can make up for might be the perfect spot to drop a ridiculously big number. If the Celtics have a statement game, this total is reachable simply by their massive contribution and garbage points from the Mavs, so look for an over here.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Toronto Raptors/Atlanta Hawks Over 234.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:30 PM CT on TSN

Keep an eye on the status of Trae Young who ended up with a questionable tag for this game. But with him in, it should be another easy over like the first two meetings have been. Books got killed on Thursday night when this matchup saw the total get bet up like crazy, and I’m surprised to see them dangling a number that can get them in similar trouble. It’s all about pace and no defense, which tends to define both teams, so for all the reasons I liked it on Thursday, I like it again tonight if Ice Trae is taking the floor.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Texas A&M +1.5 @ Texas (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:30 PM CT on ESPN2

Usually you want to stay away from a ranked team catching points while visiting an unranked opponent, but I just don’t trust that Texas is any good. The Longhorns are just 4-6 against high-major competition this season, including home losses to UConn, Auburn, and Tennessee, so they don’t fare well against the cream of the crop.

With their roster at full strength and playing their style to perfection, that’s what A&M is, whether it’s pretty or not. The Aggies can’t shoot, but as the nation’s best offensive rebounding team, they find ways to manufacture points, and they’re just a tougher team than the Longhorns. Metrics sites have this as a 1-point game, so I’ll take the points here with the expectation that A&M comes out with another gritty win.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Green Bay @ Cleveland St -15.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Green Bay had three straight home games to try to find some semblance of a pulse, but it just isn’t there for this totally non-competitive team. Now having to go on the road to the Horizon conference front-runner should be another disaster for Doug Gottlieb’s squad. Cleveland State is hot, owners of the nation’s 2nd-longest winning streak that just so happened to start with a 22-point win in Green Bay. The Vikings are also 9-1 ATS during this winning streak, and should be able to name their score here. They are one of the country’s best at forcing turnovers, so they’ll capitalize on Green Bay’s sloppiness all day, shut down a poor offense, and roll into cover town again.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Long Beach St/Cal Poly Over 154.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 4:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Books are counting too much here on Long Beach being able to slow the pace, but I don’t see it. This is a major contrast in styles, as Beach plays at the 329th adjusted tempo in the country, while Cal Poly is 3rd-fastest nationally. Poly also has the shortest average offensive possession in the country, as they love to fly up the floor and hoist a three.

Those should find the range against an LBSU defense that’s 325th in three-point percentage allowed, and has been getting torched in general lately. Meanwhile, Beach should also exploit a Mustangs defense that simply does not care about anything, resulting in them having one of the best over records and plus/minus marks to the total in the country. I think it continues today in a game that most projections see threatening the 160’s.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) South Dakota/South Dakota St Over 170.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on Summit League Network

South Dakota is the hero of the over bettor this season, with a 16-2 record to the over that leads the country, along with the best plus/minus to the total. The Coyotes just play with their hair on fire, ranking 2nd in adjusted tempo as they attack the rim downhill on just about every possession. But they’re also just atrocious on defense, ranking 357th in adjusted efficiency and 343rd in opponent effective field goal rate.

South Dakota State meanwhile should have no concerns with playing that kind of up-tempo style, and have the kind of offense to easily exploit their in-state rival. They’ve also dominated this matchup over the past few years, and won’t be shy about hanging a big number. The Jackrabbits already have a 109-point outburst against a similarly awful UND defense, and South Dakota has already allowed three conference opponents to go for 93 or more against them. If the Jacks pour it on, there’s no upper limit to where this total can go.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Kansas First Half Team Total Under 29.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:30 PM CT on ESPN

I’ve been riding this same play all season, counting on the Houston defense to shut down their opponents early, and I’m not stopping now. Especially not with this number being far higher than any of the ones I’ve gone after so far, and not in a matchup like we have here.

I mentioned the other day how Kansas can’t score on anything but interior looks, and now they face the best of the best at stopping their limited offense. Houston might have trouble in Phog Allen, but it shouldn’t be defensively, as they bring the nation’s best two-point percentage defense, along with leading in effective field goal rate and adjusted efficiency. The Cougars should look to slow things down as much as possible in a hostile environment, leaning on their glacial pace that’s 4th-slowest in the country.

They’re also too disciplined to allow much in transition from KU, and the Jayhawks don’t get to the line either so free throws will be limited early as well. This should be a rock fight all night long, but the matchup advantage Houston has here should keep a one-dimensional KU offense quiet early on.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +75.4 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.