Locks

NFL Wildcard Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.25 Unit – Justin Herbert Over 19.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Dalton Schultz Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – John Metchie Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Joe Mixon Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Isaiah Likely Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Mark Andrews Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Justice Hill Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Lamar Jackson Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Mark Andrews Anytime TD (+145)

0.25 Unit – Isaiah Likely Anytime TD (+265)

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Iowa St/Texas Tech First Half Over 69.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 1:00 PM CT on ESPN

I think the total is too low in this game, as do many of the metrics sites that project a game in the 150’s, but I especially think this first half number is too low. My one complaint about my Cyclones is their leaky first half defense, especially away from Hilton where they’re allowing 36.6 points, not what you’d expect from a top-10 defense overall. But they’re scoring like crazy early in games, ranked 13th in first half scoring which is exactly what you’d expect from a top-10 offense.

As are the Red Raiders, who rank 16th in first half scoring as they’re a fellow top-10 offense by adjusted efficiency. Tech is shooting absolutely lights out this season, ranked 3rd in the country for effective field goal rate, so I’d expect them to be able to exploit that problematic first half defense for ISU. Their three-point shooting should continue to thrive against a Clones defense that’s only 85th in opponent three-point percentage, but with ISU’s increased tempo and excellent offense, this should be a high-scoring first half.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) North Dakota St/Denver Over 155.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:00 PM CT on Summit League Network

What North Dakota State did to Oral Roberts on Thursday was ridiculous, and I expect the momentum of dropping 110 points to carry over into today. That’s because they’re facing an equally poor defense today in Denver, who ranks 355th in adjusted efficiency and 302nd in effective field goal defense. NDSU is now 2nd in the country for effective field goal percentage, and should continue to get whatever they want today. The reason this total isn’t a good deal higher is because of NDSU’s slower pace and Denver’s strong three-point defense.

But I think the pace concern is erased by Denver allowing the 9th-shortest possession length on defense, along with NDSU’s expected efficiency levels. And the Pioneers might have the 33rd-best three-point percentage defense, but they haven’t faced any great or high-volume three-point offenses. That changes today with the Bison in town, as they’re the vintage Golden State Warriors of college basketball this season. With NDSU having their own defensive issues, ranking 324th in adjusted defensive efficiency, this should be another shootout as these teams’ conference games are averaging 175.3 points.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Kansas State First Half Team Total Under 27.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on ESPN+

The total in this game ticked up a few points overnight, and that brought Kansas State’s team totals up a little bit with it. Right into the range where I’m comfortable continuing to roll with the trend of Houston absolutely clamping down on middling Big12 opponents in first halves this season. The Cougars of course lead the country in first half scoring defense, and are right on this number away from home at 27.2 points allowed on average.

But I think this matchup heavily favors Houston with K-State’s offense being a little broken, and their turnover problems likely to be exploited by the Cougar defense. The Wildcats have struggled to score in league play and against any kind of upper-tier competition this season, so the toughest test for them yet should see them fail early.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Indiana/Iowa Over 166.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on FOX

This is a big number, but neither team will have a problem playing the style required to reach it. We should see Iowa ramp up the tempo as they always do at Carver-Hawkeye, where the country’s second-highest scoring offense will put up points in bunches once again. That’s because Indiana seems to leave their defense at home, with the Hoosiers allowing 1.100 points per possession in road games, a number that extrapolated over a full season would put them outside the top-300 in defensive efficiency.

But Iowa’s defense has never been all that special or an area of focus for the Hawkeyes, and still isn’t this season. It’s particularly weak inside the arc, ranking 294th in opponent two-point percentage, and allowing the 8th-highest percentage of their opponent’s points to be scored from two. They don’t care about allowing layups when they can drain a three on the other end, which is perfect for an Indiana offense that lives in the paint. I’m seeing two very good offenses, two teams that struggle to even care about defense, and a fast tempo that sends this over the big total.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) South Dakota/St Thomas Over 168.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Summit League Network

This is another massive Summit League total brought to you by the atrocious defense but sneaky good offense that exists in this league. Metrics sites are projecting this game to get into the 170’s with relative ease because of the pace that South Dakota is going to drive. The Coyotes play at the country’s 8th-fastest adjusted tempo, and if they create a ton of possessions for St Thomas, then points are going to be plentiful.

The Tommies are 8th nationally in effective field goal rate, shoot a ton of three’s, and shoot them well. So giving them a lot of extra opportunities against a South Dakota defense ranked 352nd in adjusted efficiency, 311th in effective field goal defense, and 332nd against the three should see them score at will. But St Thomas doesn’t exactly have the best defense themselves, especially against teams that quickly attack the hoop like the Coyotes do. Offensive success from South Dakota will be the key here, and I think they’ll do enough to help boost this over the massive number.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) North Dakota/Oral Roberts Over 160.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Summit League Network

I’m riding Summit League overs until the wheels fall off. This game is another perfect example of the complete lack of defense in this league, as North Dakota checks in at 347th in adjusted defensive efficiency while Oral Roberts is 360th. As I mentioned above, Oral just had 110 points dropped on them by NDSU, which isn’t that much of an outlier considering the game before they gave up 90 to the slowest and worst offense in the league from UMKC. There will just be zero defense in this game, and even though both teams have their issues offensively, it’s just too easy to score against these teams. This conference is crazy, so count on another wild game here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +75.3 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.