Locks

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Alabama/South Carolina Over 156.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on SEC Network

All this Alabama team does is get into ridiculous shootouts, and this is the lowest total you’re going to see with them for a long time. So I’m jumping in on the over, because you can always count on the Tide to do their part in getting a game over the number. They’re the nation’s top scoring offense, both overall and on the road where they still average 90.0 points per game. I don’t see any reason why that can’t continue here, as the Tide have torched much better defenses than the one they’ll see tonight.

South Carolina has been lit up by every top-100 opponent they’ve faced, allowing 83.6 PPG in those 4 games, so the country’s most lethal offense should have no trouble. But Alabama continues to struggle with defense on the road, allowing 85.1 PPG away from home which might fuel those shootouts as much as their offense does. This game might not get as ridiculous as some of Alabama’s outings this year, but it will be high-scoring enough to take advantage of this lower number.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) St Bonaventure +3 @ St Louis (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Peacock

The Atlantic 10 is a fantastic conference this season, highlighted perhaps by how well this St Bonaventure team is playing. The Bonnies have just one loss on the season, a close one at a neutral site to an excellent Utah State team, so they’ve handled every challenge sent their way. I think they can handle this one as well, since I’m not actually sure why St Louis was made a favorite in this game.

Sharp money didn’t get it either, as they’ve come in on the Bonnies here and I wouldn’t be surprised to see SBU win this outright. They’re uniquely suited to shutting down St Louis’ interior offense that’s one of the best in the country, and should be able to slow the Billikens down with their ultra-slow tempo. If that keeps this a tight game as expected, then St Louis is liable to choke at the line as the country’s 333rd free throw shooting team, leaving the door open for the Bonnies to prove the metrics sites right here.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) South Dakota St/St Thomas Over 156.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on Summit League Network

I have to give a lot of credit to St Thomas and their offense that has turned into a premier unit in the Summit League. The Tommies rank 9th in the country for effective field goal rate, along with top-20 ranks in two-point and three-point percentages. Not surprisingly, that helps fuel a lot of scoring, which explains why 7 of the past 8 games for St Thomas have been played at 160 points or higher.

I think another is coming here with a South Dakota State team in town that can fill it up as well as anyone. Their extremely balanced offense is good at finding and exploiting whatever weakness a defense might have, and tonight I think they get inside and use their size advantage over a very small Tommies team. St Thomas will likely respond with their typical barrage of three’s, and if these teams are trading buckets with any consistency, then a relatively up-tempo game will find its way over the total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +75.2 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.