Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Miami Heat/Sacramento Kings Over 223 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on NBA TV

I think I’ll be on Miami overs until further notice, at least in favorable matchups like this. Even a terrible game from the Heat on Saturday in the wake of Jimmy Butler being suspended couldn’t slow down their overs run, and allowing 128 and 136 points the past two games certainly helps. Any kind of defense close to that and this game will fly over the relatively low total as well.

I think it’s that low due to the Heat still being a slower-paced team and books assuming Butler’s absence means their scoring takes a big hit. But this is a good matchup for Miami to produce plenty of offense, as they’re catching the Kings on no rest. That will further strain the Sacramento defense that ranks 29th in three-point percentage defense, which is key for Miami’s volume three-point shooting. And if De’Aaron Fox returns for the Kings tonight there will be plenty of scoring to get over this total.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Wisconsin/Rutgers Over 156.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on FS1

It’s tough to look at anything but overs with this Rutgers team that has had a complete personality shift away from the hard-nosed defense that defined them for years. The Scarlet Knights are still just barely a top-100 defense by adjusted efficiency, but against upper level competition they’ve shown a lot of holes. Rutgers is allowing 80.4 PPG against power conference opponents including 80.0 in Big Ten play, which I wouldn’t be surprised to see continue tonight.

Most metrics sites are projecting Wisconsin to score into the 80’s tonight, and that would create a very high floor for getting over this big total. The Badgers should be able to exploit Rutgers through their three-point shooting against a defense that’s 253rd in three-point percentage allowed. And with this game expected to be close, you can always count on the Badgers to pad points at the line as the country’s best free-throw shooting team. It still feels weird for a game in Piscataway, but this is a new version of Rutgers that I just have to bet overs with.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Arkansas-Pine Bluff/Alabama St Over 162.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on SWAC Network

Ok, so this one might be a little off the radar, but I still think it’s a good play. I just don’t know where the defense is going to come from between these teams, especially Pine Bluff who is the literal worst defense in the country. The Golden Lions are 364th in adjusted defensive efficiency, 363rd in effective field goal defense, and 363rd in two-point percentage defense. They allow a layup line every night, and even a fairly weak Alabama State offense should take advantage. But the Hornets can’t stop anything either, ranking 309th in adjusted defensive efficiency, and with both teams playing up-tempo I see plenty of easy buckets sending this over the high total.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) TCU First Half Team Total Under 24.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN2

I’m running this angle back from Saturday, albeit at a lower number, but still one that I think is worth playing. I mentioned on Saturday that Houston simply does not allow anyone to score in their building before halftime, and they went out and locked BYU down for just 22 first half points.

That’s a top-30 offense in the country from BYU, and I also mentioned how they held the country’s best offense to just 28 points earlier this season. So a TCU squad that is 155th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 224th in effective field goal rate will struggle even more. The Horned Frogs also lack any three-point shooting which at least gave BYU and Auburn hope at the Fertitta Center, so they’ll be trying to score into the teeth of the Houston defense that is allowing the country’s lowest two-point percentage.

TCU is also slow-paced at 220th in adjusted tempo, which is not close to Houston’s glacial pace but will further limit the possessions here. With this being a national TV game, I’d expect the Cougars to show off their fearsome defense and hold TCU under this number early on.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +72.9 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.