Two of the best teams in the Western Conference face off on Sunday in Houston, as the Oklahoma City Thunder and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (No. 1 in the West) take on Alperen Sengun and the Houston Rockets (No. 2 in the West). 

The Thunder have won four games in a row despite two key rotation pieces – Chet Holmgren and Alex Caruso – being out of the lineup with injuries.

Meanwhile, Houston has leapfrogged the Golden State Warriors for the No. 2 spot in the West, sitting at 14-6 on the season. The young Rockets are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA – No. 2 in defensive rating – under head coach Ime Udoka.

Oddsmakers have favored OKC on the road, but should we trust the banged-up Thunder to win this matchup?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, best player props to place and my prediction for Sunday’s Western Conference clash. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Moneyline

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Thunder Injury Report

Rockets Injury Report

Oklahoma City Thunder Best Prop Bet

The Rockets may be a tough defense, but Isaiah Hartenstein has been dominant for OKC since returning from a fractured hand. He’s put up 30, 33, 31 and 34 points, rebounds and assists in each of his first four games for OKC, picking up a double-double in every matchup. 

Not only that, but Hartenstein is heavily involved in the OKC offense, taking 42 total shots over his first four games. 

Given his rebounding prowess (14.0 per game this season), Hartenstein has a terrific floor when it comes to this prop on Sunday. 

Houston Rockets Best Prop Bet

Rockets guard Fred VanVleet has not shot the ball well this season – 38.9 percent from the field and 32.4 percent from 3 – but he’s taking a ton of shots from beyond the arc. So far in the 2024-25 campaign, FVV is attempting 7.3 shots from 3 per game, hitting three or more shots from deep in six of his last eight games. 

He’s worth a shot in the prop against an OKC team that is allowing nearly 13 opponent 3-pointers per game this season. 

While these are the two best teams in the West right now, I’m expecting a low-scoring game on Sunday night.

OKC and Houston rank No. 1 and No. 2 in the NBA in defensive rating respectively, despite both teams playing at a top five pace in the league. 

With OKC down a few key players in Holmgren and Caruso, it may want to slow this game down against a young and deep Houston squad. 

The Thunder are one of the best UNDER teams in the league this season – 11-8 – while Houston is 10-9-1 to the UNDER.

Neither team is allowing more than 106 points per game this season, so we could see this matchup end up in the low 100s – or less – on Sunday. 

Pick: UNDER 220.5 (-112)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.