The Houston Rockets (37-23) will get another shot at the Oklahoma City Thunder (49-11) when they meet in a Western Conference showdown on Monday night. Houston has lost two of the first three meetings between these teams this season, but all three of those outings came in 2024. The Rockets are in fifth place in the Western Conference standings after losing to Sacramento on Saturday. Oklahoma City holds a commanding 10.5-game lead for first place in the conference, and it is riding a three-game winning streak. 

Tipoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on Monday at the Paycom Center. The Thunder are favored by 9.5 points in the latest Thunder vs. Rockets odds, while the over/under is 228.5 points, per SportsLine consensus. Before entering any Rockets vs. Thunder picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters Week 20 of the 2024-25 NBA season on a sizzling 147-107 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning nearly $4,000. It’s also an outstanding 18-10 (64%) on top-rated spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.

The model has set its sights on Houston-Oklahoma City. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for the game:

• Thunder vs. Rockets spread: Thunder -9.5
• Thunder vs. Rockets over/under: 228.5 points
• Thunder vs. Rockets money line: Thunder: -442, Rockets: +341
• Thunder vs. Rockets picks: See picks here
• Thunder vs. Rockets streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)

Why the Thunder can cover

Oklahoma City has been the best team in the NBA this season, leading the league in defensive rating. The Thunder are clicking on offense as well, averaging 133 points over their last six games. They have won five of those six outings since the All-Star break, including a 146-132 win at San Antonio on Sunday night. 

The Thunder’s previous season high for points in a game was 144, but they surpassed that total while extending their winning streak to three games. Jalen Williams scored a career-high 41 points, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had 31 points, with neither player committing a turnover. Oklahoma City is 15-2 in its last 17 home games, while Houston has only covered the spread three times in its last 11 games. See which team to pick here. 

Why the Rockets can cover

Houston will provide a challenge for Oklahoma City’s offense, as the Rockets rank fourth in the NBA in defensive rating. They are coming off a 113-103 loss to Sacramento on Saturday, but they had a day off to prepare for this game. Fred VanVleet (ankle) has been ruled out for this game, while Steven Adams (ankle), Dillon Brooks (knee), Tari Eason (leg), Alperen Sengun (back) and Amen Thompson (shoulder) are all questionable. 

Shooting guard Jalen Green leads Houston with 21.6 points, 4.4 rebounds and 3.1 assists per game, scoring more than 20 points in five straight outings. Sengun had 20 points, 14 rebounds and nine assists in a win over Oklahoma City on Dec. 1. The Rockets have won 11 of their last 13 games in the month of March. See which team to pick here. 

How to make Thunder vs. Rockets picks

The model has simulated Rockets vs. Thunder 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Under, and it’s also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in almost 70% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Thunder vs. Rockets, and which side of the spread hits almost 70% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Rockets vs. Thunder spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is on a 147-107 roll on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.