The fantasy season is filled with noise; sometimes, it can be hard to know what is real and what is a mirage. I’m here to look underneath the bed and see if I can decipher what’s really going on around here. Is what we saw actually meaningful, or was it a creation of some unusual circumstance that is likely not to repeat? I’ll lay out some of the most intriguing or surprising storylines, analyze some of the conditions and fluctuations we saw this week, and tell you which things matter and which things don’t. Let’s dig into it.

Fantasy Playoff Schedules and Acquiring Backups to Your Own RBs: MATTER

It’s that time of year when we need to start getting our affairs for the home stretch in order. As byes are mostly in the rearview and therefore deemphasized, we can begin to let our depth go by the wayside in exchange for securities. Hopefully, by now, you’ve got a rotation of good players, including a good backup or two at WR and RB, who you find reliable when played. If this is the case, you can start to ensure you have the safety you need to sustain an unexpected absence.

For example, a couple of moves I made this week: I added Trey Lance in SuperFlex leagues where I’ve got Cooper Rush, picked up Braelon Allen who was dropped in one league to back up Breece Hall, and picked up Jaylen Wright for teams where I have De’Von Achane. These are three examples of many, but we should start gravitating towards these types of moves.

Another thing we should start paying attention to as the trade deadline looms in our leagues is the playoff schedule. Here’s a look at a few of the best and worst playoff schedules by position according to the RotoViz SOS Streaming Tool:

It’s still a little early to pick up the best defenses for the playoff run but poke around for trade options that feature players in good end-of-season matchups in exchange for those in bad ones.

Trevor Lawrence‘s Injury May Be Season-Ending, and That: PROBABLY MATTERS

As someone who has Brian Thomas in 67% of his leagues, I’m sad to report that there is real cause for concern here; the same is true for managers with Evan Engram and Gabe Davis.

Trevor Lawrence and Mac Jones‘ careers span the same period, as they were both first-round picks in 2021. Each has demonstrated flaws, but Lawrence has propped up Christian Kirk as a WR2 and Evan Engram as a TE1 twice; he has also supported Kirk for an additional WR3 season and Zay Jones and Calvin Ridley for one each.

Jones has supported no fantasy top-12 WRs or TEs; he has held up Jakobi Meyers as a front-end WR3. You could argue that the weapons have not been as good in New England. However, the early returns in Jacksonville were not encouraging for Jones’ weapons. Jones threw for 111 yards with no TDs and two picks. Engram was Jones’ leading receiver with 40 scoreless yards.

It’s early, and Minnesota is pretty good at defense, so we’ll hope for better days, but you should be a little nervous.

Adonai Mitchell’s Decent Game: PROBABLY DOESN’T MATTER

Rookie Adonai Mitchell went 6-71-0 on Sunday against a tough Bills defense. We look for rookies to perform better as the year progresses, and Mitchell was a second-round pick in the NFL draft. As such, assuming he’s starting to ramp up makes sense at first blush. And that may be. Hopefully, it is.

Unfortunately, I have my doubts.

Obstacle One: Michael Pittman, Jr. was out this week. Pittman is considered week-to-week and was not ruled out until Sunday, meaning he is probably not far off. His return likely kills Mitchell’s hopes because Josh Downs is the team’s best WR, and Alec Pierce has been playing a souped-up MVS role that seems unlikely to change, all of which boxes Mitchell out.

Obstacle Two: Joe Flacco has been a disappointment. We don’t know what is going on behind the scenes with Anthony Richardson, but Flacco’s four turnover games will not likely help him stay in the starting lineup much longer; Bryce Young V2 could be on the horizon in Indy. The WR4 in a Richardson-led offense sounds unappealing.

It’s probably a stretch even to include Kimani Vidal in this piece, as he was more of a humanized optimism than a real contributor in fantasy. However, the usage J.K. Dobbins was receiving while Gus Edwards was absent was as real as it gets. While Edwards has been out, Dobbins has received a 74% snap share (sixth) and a 63% percentage of team rush attempts (10th). When Edwards was active in the first four games of the season, Dobbins received a 59% snap share and 49% percentage of team rush attempts.

As Edwards returned Sunday, Dobbins fell back to a 67% snap share and 56% percentage of team rush attempts, and Vidal was inactive. Dobbins still has utility, but the salad days may be over.

Tight Ends Who Have Benefitted in Fantasy From Absences: MAY MATTER A LITTLE, BUT IF ANYTHING, THEY ARE AT LEAST INTERESTING

Many people have already honed in on Mike Gesicki. His route participation and market share numbers have been solid since Tee Higgins has been out (and now fellow TE Erick All is out for the year). We should also monitor Tanner Hudson, who drew six targets for Cincinnati on Thursday.

We saw Mark Andrews jump up to a 94% route participation and a 21.9% market share, both season highs, while Isaiah Likely sat out this past Thursday.

Travis Kelce has a 30.7% target share without Rashee Rice; that was 14.3% with Rice.

Ja’Tavion Sanders has had a 15-35% market share in four of five weeks leading into Week 10, starting with the game where Tommy Tremble first injured his back; the only miss for Sanders was in Week 8 when Tremble returned briefly only to miss more time in Weeks 9-10. Sanders only had an 8% share Sunday but ran routes on 89% of pass plays.

Cade Otton has had a 22-35% market share in every game since the one in which Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were injured.

Could Three Straight Failed Goal-Line Carries by Tyler Allgeier: MATTER?

It’s not easy to know what coaches and play-callers think. Let’s say Tyler Allgeier getting stuffed three straight times on the goal line against New Orleans, followed by a third-down conversion where Bijan Robinson easily scored, is not a great look for anyone other than Robinson.

Could it lead to putting the Allgeier goal-line scenario on ice? No telling. But it’s fun to imagine a free Bijan.

The Dolphins’ Excellent Fantasy Football Pass Defense: DOESN’T MATTER BECAUSE IT MAY NOT EXIST

This is an unusual entry because the team hasn’t even played yet in Week 10; instead, it’s a rare opportunity to experience the immediate gratification (or embarrassment) of calling a shot in the morning that will be at least partially paid off that same night. But I uncovered a strange anomaly over the weekend and thought it seemed meaningful.

The Dolphins have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to QBs and the second-fewest to WRs. Therefore, they are seen as a matchup to avoid in fantasy for all passing game options. However, they rank 25th in EPA per dropback allowed and 21st in defensive success rate on dropbacks. These expected points-per-play stats seem contradictory to the counting stats, but they can be harmonized.

The Dolphins and their opponents have a combined 1,019 plays on the season, the third-fewest in the league. If we imagine them at an average rate, the margin between these two polarized perceptions of the Dolphins’ pass defense narrows. Factor in various anomalies like regression or playing in odd game scripts, and it becomes increasingly likely that the Dolphins’ pass defense is more of a back-end than a front-end one.

The Bills’ Bye Week Placement: MIGHT KIND OF MATTER

The Bills are fighting injuries to several pass-catchers right now: Amari Cooper, Keon Coleman, and now Dalton Kincaid are all banged up. While they are all a little fringy for their availability in Week 11, the Bills have a bye week in Week 12, and they are five games ahead in their division.

While I’m sure they would love to beat Kansas City this week, which could have implications for their playoff seeding, the bigger picture is going deep into the playoffs, and these players should be invaluable for a stretch run.

The Bills will likely make them all sit this week, meaning Josh Allen will be on an island against one of the most formidable defenses in football.

The Panthers Beating the Giants: MIGHT MATTER FOR THESE STARTING QBS

In one of the crazier stat anomalies of the season, Daniel Jones came into Week 10 third in expected points (EP) per game and just 26th in fantasy points per game. This should not be. Outside of primary stats (yards, TDs, etc., that go into the actual fantasy tabulation), EP is generally the most predictive and stable advanced metric; it basically sums up all the fantasy points a player owes to his opportunity alone, agnostic of his abilities as a player.

Its inverse is fantasy points over expected (FPOE). FPOE is essentially efficiency within the construct of that opportunity. It is a net differential, an accumulating score per opportunity, but each result could be positive or negative. In theory, if a player adds nothing to his EP, he will score a net zero; if he is adding to his opportunities by doing dazzling things that defy what is considered normal (Christian McCaffrey, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce), his FPOE will consistently climb more than it falls. And if that player ranks third in EP but 26th in fantasy points, there is only one way: his FPOE has to totally stink.

Such is the case for Jones. 68 QBs have taken an offensive snap coming into Week 10. Jones ranks 68th in FPOE with -49.7 and counting. This is the status quo for Jones, who has had the sixth-worst FPOE of any player at any position since his rookie season in 2019.

Amid constant calls for his benching, Jones went to Munich to face the Carolina Panthers, widely seen as the worst team in football over the first half of the season and went 22/37 for 190-0-2. For added context, those Panthers came into Week 10 ranked 31st in EPA per dropback allowed and 28th in defensive success rate on dropbacks. They are arguably the worst pass defense in the entire league. It’s probably time for the Giants to smash the gong, and doing it going into a bye week makes some sense.

Side note: Don’t be surprised if Tommy DeVito is in the mix for the job over Drew Lock.

It also works well for Panthers’ QB Bryce Young, who has been Jones’ simulacrum, accumulating -89.9 FPOE in his 2023 rookie year, then -18.6 FPOE in his first two starts in 2024 before his benching. Since taking over for Andy Dalton after a car accident sidelined him in Week 8, Young has only lost five FPOE (we’re lowering the bar here, yes) in some mostly unfavorable matchups. Young went to Munich and went 15/25 for 126-1-0; this is not exactly Manning-esque, but the team should see what the kid has got rather than wasting time on a 37-year-old journeyman, and Young has probably done enough to remain the Panthers’ starter for the rest of 2024.

Malik Nabers’ Slump: DOESN’T MATTER

Malik Nabers hasn’t finished as a WR1 in half-PPR scoring since Week 5. That’s five weeks at fewer than 17.1 fantasy points in any game. I sense it in the air: the freak-out is in full swing. Remember, though, Nabers came into Week 10 with a league-leading 37% market share. Sunday, he drew 31.3% despite going in and out of the game due to injury concerns. This is elite; don’t overthink it.

If Jones is benched for Lock, it may theoretically help Nabers, as Lock has a little Jameis in him, and Jones is pathologically conservative. If he is benched for DeVito, I’m not sure it is such a boon.

Regardless, keep starting players who lead the NFL in market share and trust they will come through in the aggregate. As a cherry on top, the Giants’ WRs have plus matchups every week from now through Week 17. Monitor his health; Nabers seemed a little gimpy on Sunday, but he’s got the bye week to heal.