The truth about Tennessee talent gap with Ohio State for College Football Playoff matchup

Posted by Admin December 16, 2024 Football

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If College Football Playoff games were decided by recruit rankings, Tennessee would have the worst matchup in the bracket.

And maybe it does.

Ohio State has signed the highest percentage of four-star and five-star recruits in college football in recent years.

And the Buckeyes are believed to have the highest paid roster in college football at around $20 million in NIL deals. That helped them land the most coveted transfers in the portal to build the lineup the Vols are about to face.

No. 9 seed Tennessee (10-2) plays No. 8 seed Ohio State (10-2) on Saturday (8 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN) in Columbus, Ohio, in a first-round CFP game.

On paper, this is a mismatch. But on the field, it’s viewed as the best odds for a close game in the first round. Let’s explain why both can be true.

Ohio State has the No. 1 blue-chip ratio. What’s that?

For the past decade, 247Sports recruiting analyst Bud Elliot has calculated what he calls the blue-chip ratio as a predictor of national title contenders.

It is the percentage of four-star and five-star high school recruits (blue chip) that a team signs among its total scholarship signees over the previous four recruiting classes.

At the beginning of the 2024 season, Ohio State had a 90% blue-chip ratio, the best in the nation. Tennessee had a 46% blue-chip ratio. Every national champion since at least 2011 has had a blue-chip ratio above 50%.

Fifth-year players and transfers don’t count in the calculation. And that detail matters in this CFP matchup.

Tennessee closed gap with older players

Tennessee built a winning roster in a different way. It developed and retained veteran players and then filled gaps with experienced transfers.

For example, the lifeblood of the 2024 Vols is on the offensive and defensive lines. Yet very few of those players register in the blue-chip ratio.

All-SEC offensive linemen Cooper Mays and Javontez Spraggins were in the 2020 recruiting class, which is outside the four-year blue-chip ratio calculation. Starting defensive linemen Omari Thomas, Bryson Eason and Dominic Bailey were also in that 2020 class.

Defensive tackle Elijah Simmons signed in 2019 and was only eligible to play this season due to a COVID-exempt year, an extra season of eligibility granted to players who played through the 2020 pandemic season.

The rest of the starting offensive line includes transfers Lance Heard (LSU), Andrej Karic (Texas) and John Campbell (Miami). Transfers Omarr Norman-Lott (Arizona State) and Jaxson Moi (Stanford) have been key players in the defensive line rotation.

None of them count in the blue-chip ratio. But the Vols have mixed them together effectively to create a veteran playoff team. And sometimes experience trumps talent.

Want a Vols underdog story? Look at Dylan Sampson

Tennessee has plenty of talent. But it’s more of the late-bloomer, overachiever variety than Ohio State’s loaded lineup.

Tennessee running back Dylan Sampson is the SEC Offensive Player of the Year. He was a three-star recruit, according to 247Sports Composite. Backup running back DeSean Bishop is a walk-on.

Ohio State has two All-Big Ten running backs, Ole Miss transfer Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson, the No. 1 running back in the 2021 class.

Granted, Judkins was a three-star recruit coming out of high school. But Ohio State could afford to get the All-SEC running back out of the transfer portal and still retain Henderson because of its enormous NIL fund.

The overachieving pair of Sampson and Bishop rushed for 1,918 yards this season. Five-star Henderson and transfer gem Judkins rushed for 1,556 yards.

Caleb Downs vs. Jermod McCoy: Two paths to stardom

Ohio State got the best players available. But Tennessee sometimes found diamonds in the rough to get similar results.

Consider how they attacked the portal in the defensive secondary.

Ohio State landed Alabama transfer safety Caleb Downs, a former five-star recruit who was the No. 1 player in the portal. He was the Big Ten Defensive Back of the Year.

Tennessee got Oregon State transfer cornerback Jermod McCoy, a former three-star recruit who got one Power Four conference scholarship offer out of high school. He was an All-SEC first-team performer this season.

To take it one step further, Tennessee counters Downs at safety with walk-on Will Brooks.

Nico Iamaleava or five-star WRs: Which matters most?

Tennessee isn’t exactly below the poverty line in NIL. In fact, it’s viewed as one of the industry’s leaders.

It signed five-star quarterback Nico Iamaleava to an NIL contract valued at more than $8 million, The Athletic reported. And the Vols stocked their receiving corps with transfers Bru McCoy (USC), Dont’e Thornton (Oregon) and Chris Brazzell (Tulane).

Ohio State did it the opposite way. It signed five-star wide receivers Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka and Carnell Tate out of high school. Then it got Kansas State transfer Will Howard at quarterback out of the portal.

It’s debatable which has more value in an offense: UT’s five-star quarterback or Ohio State’s three five-star receivers. But the latter matters more when calculating a cumulative talent gap.

Talented players only count if they’re healthy

Tennessee has been relatively healthy this season. Ohio State has not, at least not on the offensive line.

The Buckeyes had three All-Big Ten offensive linemen this season. Two of them suffered season-ending injuries, so they won’t play against the Vols. Center Seth McLaughlin is out with a torn Achillies, and offensive tackle Josh Simmons suffered a knee injury.

The Vols will try to exploit those weak spots with arguably the deepest defensive line in college football.

Vols are better than recruit rankings; Buckeyes are worse

Finally, their CFP seeds suggest that Ohio State and Tennessee have comparable talent.

But that’s because the Buckeyes underperformed on the field compared to their recruit rankings, and the Vols overperformed.

Ohio State had top-five recruiting classes each of the previous four years (2021-24), according to 247Sports Composite. Tennessee’s classes ranked between No. 10 in 2023 and No. 22 in 2021 during coach Josh Heupel’s four-year tenure, but it compensated with transfers and good player development.

But according to the polls, Ohio State and Tennessee shouldn’t be playing in first round anyway. Both teams are ranked higher than their seed due to the 12-team playoff format, which gave automatic first-round byes to lower-ranked conference champions Boise State and Arizona State.

Ohio State is ranked No. 6 in the CFP poll but seeded No. 8. Tennessee is ranked No. 7 and seeded No. 9, which is better than its recruit ranking would suggest.

But counting talent in that way only tells part of the story of how the Vols got to the College Football Playoff.

Adam Sparks is the Tennessee football beat reporter. Email adam.sparks@knoxnews.com. X, formerly known as Twitter@AdamSparks. Support strong local journalism by subscribing at knoxnews.com/subscribe.

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