After two seasons of “meaningless” hoops, the San Antonio Spurs are somewhat in an elimination game next week. With just one game left in the group stage of the 2024 NBA Cup, the Spurs are in pole position to win Western Conference Group B. It’ll just take a win against the Phoenix Suns on the road.

The Spurs, Suns, and Oklahoma City Thunder are tied for first in their group with a 2-1 record. The first tie-breaker in the group stage is the head-to-head record. San Antonio owns the head-to-head advantage over OKC thanks to a cup win over the Thunder. That means all San Antonio needs to do is beat the Suns, and they make it into the elimination rounds. Phoenix lost to the Thunder in a previous NBA Cup game, so they’ll need the Thunder to lose and beat the Spurs to win the group. OKC needs to win, and the Spurs need to lose for the Thunder to move on.

It’s also technically possible the Spurs could make it into the knockout rounds, even with a loss to Phoenix, but it’s unlikely. One team from each conference with the best record and point differential makes it into the next stage of the NBA Cup as a wild card team. The Dallas Mavericks are in a prime position with a 2-1 record and a +41 point differential. If the Thunder lose to the Utah Jazz (by a margin that significantly hurts their point differential), the Mavs get blown out, and the Spurs manage to keep it VERY close in a loss, they could possibly be the West’s wild card team.

San Antonio just needs to win to avoid that convoluted situation. The Suns are coming off a loss to the Brooklyn Nets and will face the Golden State Warriors on Saturday. Many will remember the Spurs’ surprising takedown of the Suns in back-to-back games early last season. The Suns still have a lot of talent with Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal, plus an improved supporting cast headlined by Tre Jones’ brother, Tyus.

Whether you’ve bought into the hype of the NBA Cup or not, this is the closest the Spurs have gotten to a “must-win” game since their Play-In Tournament appearance in the 2021-22 season. With Jeremy Sochan potentially coming back healthy, the Spurs could have their whole roster ready for the battle.