After the Denver Nuggets, then the reigning champions, eliminated the Los Angeles Lakers in five games last April, five of this website’s six NBA writers picked them to beat the Minnesota Timberwolves and 14 of ESPN’s 16 experts did the same. The Nuggets were the No. 2 seed, but they had the same record as the No. 1-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder. Nikola Jokic had just won his third MVP award in four seasons. Jamal Murray had put together the best regular season of his career. The Timberwolves posed problems with their size, but I figured that, even if the games were close, the Nuggets had the edge because of their superior crunch-time execution. 

Then Denver lost Game 1 at home. In Game 2, it scored only 80 points, despite the Wolves being without Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert. The Nuggets responded like champions, winning the next three games, but were blown out in Game 6 and, after building a 20-point lead in Game 7, collapsed. Jayson Tatum of the Boston Celtics had thought, just like the rest of us, that Denver matched up with them better than anybody else, but we never got to see it. Instead, we’ve seen Murray look like a shell of himself at the Olympics and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope sign with the Orlando Magic. For a team that employs the best player in the world, there are a lot of questions about its immediate future.

For one, who steps into Caldwell-Pope’s place? In another universe, that could have been Bruce Brown, but he walked the summer after the title, so the answer is likely 23-year-old wing Christian Braun. He may prove to be a fine fifth starter, but what about the increasingly thin bench? As well as betting on numerous young players — one of them, Peyton Watson hurt his hamstring early in training camp — the front office, led by Calvin Booth, signed veterans Russell Westbrook and Dario Saric in the offseason. It’s a bit of a strange brew, but the core ingredients are still the same as in 2023, so Denver should still be considered a contender … right?

The state of play

Last year: Despite saying goodbye to Brown and Jeff Green, the Nuggets’ 57-25 record (No. 5 on offense, No. 8 on defense) was better than it was in their championship season. Depth was always a concern, though, and Denver didn’t get enough from its role players against the Wolves.

The offseason: After signing with Orlando, KCP said the Nuggets should have lost to the Lakers in the first round. DaRon Holmes II, drafted No. 22, tore his Achilles at summer league, making it even more important that Saric, signed using the taxpayer midlevel exception, fits in with the second unit. They gave up two second-rounders to dump Reggie Jackson, and they gave Westbrook a second-year player option on his minimum deal. Murray got a four-year max extension, and quietly, Vlatko Cancar and DeAndre Jordan returned on one-year minimums. Gordon could still get an extension, too. Justin Holiday, the seventh man in last year’s playoff rotation, remains unsigned.

Best case for 2024-25: Braun more than makes up for KCP’s departure, Murray finally makes his first All-Star and All-NBA teams, Saric and Westbrook swing playoff games and, between Watson, Tyson, Strawther and Cancar, the Nuggets find that they have just enough depth to solve each matchup problem they encounter; to defeat Boston in the Finals, Jokic delivers the best series of his career, which is really saying something.

Worst case 2024-25: Westbrook gets some 6MOY buzz in November, only to finish the regular season shooting 52% at the rim and 22% from 3-point range, a personification of the Nuggets’ two biggest flaws — floor spacing and bench production — neither of which they can overcome without Murray at the peak of his powers; in the first round, Murray is far from the peak of his powers, and their playoff run ends prematurely.

The conversation

Nuggets believer: You don’t have to make the case against the Nuggets because I already know what you’re going to say: KCP should still be on the team. Jamal Murray looked terrible at the Olympics. Russell Westbrook is going to be a disaster. Calvin Booth shouldn’t have overpaid Dario Saric this summer and shouldn’t have overpaid Zeke Nnaji last year. And he shouldn’t have, for the second year in a row, given Michael Malone a bench full of young guys who aren’t yet viable in a playoff setting and veterans who are no longer viable in a playoff setting. It’s such a shame to see a franchise fail the best player on the planet.

Nuggets skeptic: [silence]

Nuggets believer: You want more? OK, I’m sure you’ll go on and on about how the Nuggets don’t shoot nearly enough 3s, never get to the free-throw line and barely force any turnovers. Nikola Jokic is a joy to watch, you’ll say, but why can’t this foolish front office ease the burden on him? There must be someone who can tell the Nuggets that it’s OK to score some fast-break points every once in a while!

Nuggets skeptic: [silence]

Nuggets believer: Ha! See, I knew you didn’t have anything original to say. You were probably planning to cite some statistic to emphasize how horrible the non-Jokic minutes were last season, but I’m one step ahead of you: In the 862 possessions that Murray played without Jokic, Denver was outscored by 15.7 points per 100 possessions, and its offense was worse than the league-worst Grizzlies‘, per Cleaning The Glass. You’d call that embarrassing, right?

Nuggets skeptic: [silence]

Nuggets believer: Yep, I have you pegged. Just another casual observer of a team that is being widely overlooked as a championship contender. You can second-guess Booth’s front office and whine about Michael Malone’s coaching decisions all you want right now, as long as you’re prepared to look back at your little complaints when the Nuggets are back in the Finals. The regular season hasn’t even started, and it’s already apparent that they’re going to be awesome again. Malone wouldn’t have called Murray “healthy” and “explosive” if he were still dealing with whatever was limiting him at the Olympics. Westbrook can be erratic, sure, but he also addresses a bunch of the “flaws” that everyone’s been freaking out about — he can find easy points in transition, get to the free throw line, put pressure on the rim and create 3s for others. Braun may not have the gravity of KCP on the perimeter, but he’s bigger, stronger and a much better fit defensively. His ability to defend big wings frees up Aaron Gordon to work as a roamer more often and protect the rim when opponents put Jokic in the pick-and-roll. Cancar, more than a year removed from his ACL tear, gives the team some more size at 3/4, and Saric — an obvious fit as a playmaking 5 — can both post up against switches and space the floor. Personally, though, I’m most excited about the forthcoming vindication of Booth’s draft strategy. Please familiarize yourself with Julian Strawther, especially if you’re all bent out of shape about the shooting Denver lost when it let KCP walk.

Nuggets skeptic: Uh, are you done?

Nuggets believer: The skeptic speaks! Finally! And no, I’m not done! I could talk about the 2024-25 Denver Nuggets — and how they are being misevaluated — for hours. To paraphrase my forthcoming manifesto on the subject: The way people talk about the Nuggets is a microcosm of everything that is wrong with the way people talk about sports. Instead of appreciating that they’ve built a consistently elite offense around a transcendent, wholly original superstar, people complain that they don’t do things the exact same way as everybody else. Instead of applauding Murray for playing through a calf injury and an elbow injury in the playoffs — and making multiple game-winners — and suiting up for Canada at less than 100%, people use his numbers in those situations against him. Instead of focusing on the fact that lineups featuring their four returning starters had a plus-13.2 point differential last season, people lament the loss of the fifth starter as if he were a superstar. Hey, what if the Nuggets are so hard to stop in clutch situations in part because they don’t rely on 3s, whistles or forcing turnovers? What if Murray’s willingness to play through pain is one of the reasons the front office loves him and is comfortable investing in him long-term? What if the front office believes Braun can raise the team’s ceiling, and that throwing him to the wolves is the best way to make sure he reaches his? I understand that the Nuggets didn’t sign Paul George or make some huge trade this summer, but they won the championship two seasons ago and might have repeated if not for one ghastly second half against Minnesota. Teams this good don’t need to make massive moves, and, until the league figures out an answer for the Murray-Jokic two-man game, I don’t see any reason to be down on this one. Remember how excited the basketball intelligentsia was when Aaron Gordon first got to Denver? The Nuggets are way better than they were then, and they’re battle-tested. I would have picked them against the Celtics last season, and I’ll pick them to win the 2025 title right now. I don’t care that they’re not the shiny new thing.

Nuggets skeptic: Well, that was a lot. Your manifesto sounds interesting, though. Ever think you might be a tad defensive about the Nuggets? Maybe a wee bit insecure about their title chances? If so, I wonder why that might be! Anyway, you actually did a decent job of outlining many of the team’s potential problems before you waved them all away. All I was going to say — had you not decided to speak for me — was that we’re about to learn a lot about this team and the front office that built it. I know that the four returning starters are awesome together, and I know that Braun can at least play in the playoffs. KCP, Bruce Brown and Jeff Green were all important during the title run, though, and I have absolutely no idea if the complementary players on this roster can fill their shoes. It was mere months ago that Malone removed Peyton Watson from the playoff rotation because nobody was guarding him. At the same time, Westbrook, as a member of the Clippers, was going completely haywire. I might have been a bit wary about giving Murray all that guaranteed money, but I wasn’t even planning to criticize Booth for that — I’m willing to assume that he knows much more about Murray’s physical condition than the general public does. I’m less willing, however, to give Booth the benefit of the doubt about the young guys’ readiness to play at the highest level and the Nuggets’ post-title talent drain. Still, while I can’t speak for the basketball intelligentsia, I can’t wait to see Murray and Jokic run the two-man game against the Thunder on Oct. 24, and I’m open to the possibility that this roster has everything it needs. This (sane, mildly critical) perspective doesn’t lend itself to a manifesto, but it’s better than making predictions in blind faith. Based on what we know right now, I’ll take OKC in the opener and in the West.