The College Football Playoff is almost here. These games could decide the bracket.

Posted by Admin November 29, 2024 Football

When the College Football Playoff expanded to 12 teams this season, simple math suggested that more teams in contention would correspond with more late-season drama.

In that respect, the expanded playoff has already delivered on its promise before its first official game is ever played.

Entering the final weekend of the regular season — with only a weekend of conference title games beyond that — this is the last chance for the vast majority of teams to make their case for inclusion. Games that once would have held no national significance beyond bragging rights are now appointment television as teams on the playoff’s proverbial bubble hope to put their best foot forward without stumbling.

This weekend, be thankful for two days of games that could make or break the field.

(Note: All rankings are from the College Football Playoff committee rankings.)

Big 12

Friday:

Oklahoma State (3-8) at No. 25 Colorado (8-3)

Saturday:

No. 16 Arizona State (9-2) at Arizona (4-7)
No. 24 Kansas State (8-3) at No. 18 Iowa State (9-2)
Houston (4-7) at No. 19 BYU (9-2)

Want to look like the smartest person in the room at your holiday feast this week? Rattle off all of the 200-plus Big 12 championship game scenarios to your family and friends. Nine teams remain in contention to make that league’s championship game, but the most likely four are Arizona State, Iowa State, Colorado and BYU, which all have 6-2 league records. Iowa State and Arizona State have the most open paths to the title game in a clear-as-mud situation.

Coach Deion Sanders of Colorado and BYU could have made the Big 12’s path to the playoff simpler had they both won last week. Instead, their road losses threw the league into its current chaos.

These are the stakes: The Big 12 has beaten itself up during conference play, and there’s a strong possibility that the only way a single Big 12 team makes the playoff is by winning its conference championship.

SEC

Saturday:

Auburn (5-6) at No. 13 Alabama (8-3)
No. 8 Tennessee (9-2) at Vanderbilt (6-5)

In the SEC, Georgia has already clinched an appearance in the championship game. The Bulldogs will play either Texas or Texas A&M, the rivals who happen to be conveniently playing each other Saturday for the first time since 2011.

Two-loss Tennessee was the biggest beneficiary of losses last week by Alabama, Texas A&M and Ole Miss that weakened the SEC’s chances of putting as many as five teams in the playoff. Once on the outside looking into the bracket, the Vols now appear to be back in. But to ensure that, the Volunteers need to win in Nashville. Once a nearly automatic SEC win, Vanderbilt is dangerous. Just ask Alabama.

ACC and Mountain West

Saturday:

No. 15 South Carolina (8-3) at No. 12 Clemson (9-2)
No. 6 Miami (10-1) at Syracuse (8-3)

The upheaval in the SEC standings has opened the door for other leagues like the ACC to get more teams into the 12-team bracket.

SMU has already earned its way into the ACC championship game and will play either Miami or Clemson. If both of those schools win this weekend, which is no guarantee, the ACC might get three teams into the playoff. The Hurricanes might be able to absorb a second loss and still make the playoff should they lose at Syracuse, but a third loss would leave Clemson’s playoff probability far dicier. They aren’t the only team in their rivalry game with playoff aspirations.

Should Clemson lose to South Carolina, that might — barely — keep the Gamecocks’ own playoff chances alive, however slim. We say slim, because with losses to Alabama and Ole Miss, two teams likely left out of the playoff, on their resume, the Gamecocks’ credentials take a hit.

Saturday: Oregon State (5-6) at No. 11 Boise State (10-1)

The Broncos became famous 25 years ago for spoiling more notable opponents’ big plans. Now on the doorstep of their first playoff berth, with a Mountain West title game awaiting next week, Boise State is trying to rise high enough in the rankings to perhaps earn a top-four seed and a first-round bye that comes with it.

Heisman Trophy contender and star running back Ashton Jeanty has worked his team out of uncomfortable positions; three of the Broncos’ last five wins have come by 7 points or less. Can Oregon State knock out college football’s blue-turf darling?