The Chiefs haven’t won a game by more than 10 points since October. Their last three games have been won by seven points combined. In their last four games, they’re 3-1 even though they’ve been outscored by two points. Kansas City’s average margin of victory since the start of November is only three points.

How does this keep happening? Well, luck has certainly been a factor.

The Baltimore Ravens had seemingly thrown a potential game-tying or go-ahead touchdown pass as time expired in Week 1, except their tight end’s heel landed a couple of inches out of bounds.

A pass interference penalty on fourth-and-16 with under a minute to go helped the Chiefs kick a game-winning field goal as time expired against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 3.

The Denver Broncos were lining up for a game-winning field goal in Week 10, but the left side of their offensive line collapsed, and the kick was blocked.

The Las Vegas Raiders were in field goal range and driving in the final minute in Week 13 but fumbled a snap on third down, and Kansas City recovered.

The Chiefs, of course, would argue they make their own luck.

The blocked kick was a great special teams play. The defense still had to recover the fumble against the Raiders. And Mahomes has often saved his best for the game’s biggest moments, like when he set up the game-winning kick against the Chargers by scrambling and making a clutch throw to Travis Kelce on third-and-7.

Why is this all so important? Well, it defies the logic of what makes a great team. The 2019 and 2022 Kansas City teams, for example, both finished fourth in point differential before they won the Super Bowl.

Historical data suggests that point differential is a more reliable indicator for success than simply a team’s win-loss record. And over time, a team’s record in one-score games usually approaches .500.

The Chiefs have bucked that trend this season, and were they any other team, people would most likely doubt them. The 2022 Minnesota Vikings, for example, were 13-4 with a minus-3 point differential. They lost at home in their only playoff game.

Will anyone be bold enough to doubt Kansas City? Mahomes is 15-3 in the playoffs, and only two of those losses have come before the Super Bowl. (And for good measure, both required overtime.)

With a two-game lead for the No. 1 seed and only four games left, odds are the Chiefs will have home-field advantage for the postseason. As beatable as it seems on paper, it remains to be seen whether anyone can knock off Kansas City in practice.