Week Three is in the books, and for your traditional bespoke power rankings Peter has you covered here, but over on this side we’re trying something a little different. Power rankings are all about arguing about why they’re wrong, and while it’s one thing to be subjectively wrong like Peter, and it’s quite another to be objectively wrong. And so, in the spirit of being objectively wrong we have created C.A.L.C.U.L.A.T.O.R., the Comprehensive Analysis of League Competition Using Latest Analytics To Organize Rankings.

What goes into Calculator? Basically, every advanced stat I have available, in addition to data based on net point differential, and the current Super Bowl odds from our friends at FanDuel. I run some formulas to smooth everything out, create a unified scale, and here we go! You can see the rankings week by week here. We have plenty of major risers and faller, including in Carolina, where the Panthers are no longer breaking my scale, although up top, Buffalo still very much is. Let’s get into it.

1. Buffalo Bills: CALCULATOR Score: 122.15, Change from last week: 18.57 – The Bills rocket from third to first on the strength of absolutely demolishing Jacksonville. This is the Bills’ second straight jump of at least 18 points, and by our underlying metrics, they are a nearly unanimous number one: First in DVOA, in several EPAs, they’ve climbed to second in Super Bowl odds, BUT PFF kinda hates them, and has them 7^th overall.

2. Kansas City Chiefs: 109.68, 2.25 – The Chiefs keep eking out victories, and their status as incumbent Super Bowl Favorites keeps them near the top, but they probably shouldn’t be. Then again, one of the reasons we include Super Bowl odds is to be forward-looking. The Chiefs have been strictly average by EPA per play and according to PFF, but are any of you willing to count out the possibility that they come on late, that Mahomes turns back into Mahomes, and they manage yet another Super Bowl run? Still wish they would have blown out Atlanta instead of whatever that was.

3. New Orleans Saints: 94.16, -20.88 – The Saints tumble from one to three with an extremely unimpressive loss to the Eagles in which all of the Saints’ skill position players played like one would expect. Derek Carr played like Derek Carr, Rashid Shaheed had 0 catches on 5 targets, and Alvin Kamara was fine. Only two teams fell more than New Orleans, though they are still second overall in DVOA.

4. San Francisco 49ers: 93.76, -6.65 – The 49ers take a small tumble after they choke away a ten-point fourth-quarter lead to an undermanned Rams team. Like KC, the 49ers have been merely average across all efficiency metrics. They’re propped up via the fifth-highest PFF grade and +750 Super Bowl odds.

5. Minnesota Vikings: 91.86, 4.97 – The Vikes go from eighth to fifth by dismantling the Houston Texans. The Vikings are doing all of this with Sam Darnold at quarterback, and without Jordan Addison or TJ Hockenson. This may go down as the Year of the Coach, and Kevin O’Connell, Wes Phillips, and Brian Flores are all among the most creative people working in football right now. Minnesota is third in point differential, EPA, and fourth in DVOA. Given the quality of competition they’ve faced and the injuries they’re dealing with, there may not be a more impressive team in football.

6. Seattle Seahawks: 90.68, 4.97 – Seattle crushed the helpless, Skylar Thompson-led Dolphins by getting out to an early lead and coasting. It wasn’t Geno Smith’s finest performance, but the Seahawks haven’t missed a beat with Shane Waldron heading to Chicago (an interesting fact), and they still hold PFF’s highest grade of the season at 87.5. The Seahawks have solid DVOA and EPA scores as well and are probably a bit underrated at this point.

7. Baltimore Ravens: 87.32, 11.40 – The final score between the Ravens and Cowboys was much closer than the game actually was. Baltimore had 274 rushing yards, and massively outgained Dallas, who managed to recover an onside kick to narrow the margin. The Ravens are 1-2, but they’re fifth overall in DVOA, and have a solid case to make for plain old bad luck. Vegas still believes too, as only the Chiefs, Bills, 49ers, and Eagles have better odds.

8. Detroit Lions: 83.93, 3.56 – After a weird loss to the Bucs last week the Lions righted the ship by running through the Cardinals with ease, as David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs combined for 188 yards on 39 carries. The Lions are between sixth and ninth in every underlying metric, one of the most consistent teams in the league.

9. Pittsburgh Steelers: 79.26, 5.04 – Justin Fields has been an average quarterback thus far, which is an incredible accomplishment, and more than enough for a fundamentally sound Steelers’ team. After knocking off the Chargers, Pittsburgh is an impressive fourth in EPA per Play, and they have the third-highest PFF grade of any team.

10. New York Jets: 78.83, 15.67 – One of the biggest risers of the week sees Aaron Rodgers just jumping over his former team. New York won a convincing victory over the Pats and had a big jump in their Vegas odds from +2200 to +1800. The Packers have a better DVOA, but the Jets are slightly ahead in EPA per Play. More than anything, it’s extremely annoying to see them this high.

11. Green Bay Packers: 78.01, 9.12 – The fact that the Packers rank this highly behind two consecutive games from Malik Willis is incredible, but don’t sleep on the Green Bay defense, which is pulling its weight for once, holding opponents to -.107 EPA per Play. They’re seventh in DVOA and are only held back by hate from the PFF crowd, where they rank 18^th. They have one of the biggest differences between grade and efficiency stats.

12. Philadelphia Eagles: 77.50, 8.81 – In a world where knocking off the Saints counts as an impressive victory, the Eagles move up two spots. While Philly had no trouble shutting down the NO offense, they still haven’t really gotten it together in the passing game. Paying running backs is generally foolhardy but without Saquon Barkley this team might be 0-3. Philly’s underlying stats are pretty brutal as they have negative a DVOA and EPA, but Vegas loves the Eagles, and sees them as the fourth most likely Super Bowl winner.

13. Houston Texans: 75.10, -23.90 – The biggest fallers of the week couldn’t do anything against Minnesota. They have the seventh-best Super Bowl odds, but they’re negative on the season in EPA per Play, they haven’t played an impressive offensive game since opening against the Colts, and it may be time to start worrying about a sophomore slump for both CJ Stroud and Tank Dell.

14. Los Angeles Chargers: 70.20, -21.17 – The Chargers fattened up against the Raiders and the Bryce Young Chargers, but they ran into a real team this week – the Steelers – and may have lost quarterback Justin Herbert for an extended period. All of that said, it’s worth noting that Jim Harbaugh has been running an efficient little ship, with the 7^th best EPA in the league. Their middling ranking is more about their injuries, and the Vegas Odds seeing those injuries quite clearly. They at least they do have a competent backup in Taylor Heinicke.

15. Cincinnati Bengals: 65.04, -2.4 – The Bengals dropped a game in a shootout to Washington on Monday night and may have cemented Jayden Daniels as the frontrunner for Rookie of the Year, and as a future star generally. Of all the hyped pre-season teams, I trust the Bengals the least. They’re average in everything, but propped up by +3000 Super Bowl odds. They are 12^th in DVOA, I suppose. They just seem perpetually disappointing.

16. Arizona Cardinals: 65.02, -9.66 – Run defense is going to be an issue for this team, and Detroit’s fierce pass rush did a number on Kyler Murray, while the new-look Detroit secondary kept Marvin Harrison in check. Still, while the Cards are just 1-2, they’ve definitely underperformed some of their underlying metrics, like a respectable 8.4 DVOA, and a positive if unimpressive .068 EPA per Play. Their losses are to the incredible Buffalo Bills team and what is probably a good Lions team. Their blow-out victory over the Rams doesn’t look so shabby either. If you’re facing Arizona, don’t take them lightly.

17. Atlanta Falcons: 61, -3.85 – The Chiefs have a horseshoe lodged up their collective posteriors, which manifested this week in an asinine fourth and one running play from a bunch formation for poor Bijan Robinson, who never had a chance. Then again, dumb teams do dumb things, and Atlanta just can’t get in sync with Kirk Cousins at the helm. They are below average in all metrics, but for some reason, Vegas likes them as the 14^th most likely team to win the Super Bowl. I love Super Bowl odds. Like the Atlanta Falcons are going to win the Super Bowl. LOL.

18. Indianapolis Colts: 57.06, 7.92 – Nice work Bears, you single-handedly put one of the worst teams in the NFL in the top 20. Moreover, you ran the ball 27 times for 69 (nice) yards against the Colts! That is an almost impossibly bad performance, but we’ll get to the Bears in a minute. The Colts won despite Anthony Richardson completing only 10 passes thanks to Jonathan Taylor cutting through the Bears like they were the Colts. Indy, miraculously, has a positive DVOA. They also have a tight end named Kylen Granson.

19. Dallas Cowboys: 55.55, -9.07 – Dallas is still 2100 to win the Super Bowl, the 9^th best odds in the league. This is ludicrous. If I had to pick a word to describe latter-day McCarthy teams, that word would be “pantsed.” Mike’s “rah-rah,” “it’s all about execution” hogwash will work for a while. He will develop some fine practice players with good habits. But once Mike’s teams start getting pantsed it’s all over. The Cowboys opened up with a win against the Browns, but after that it’s been nothing but getting pantsed. They were pantsed by Green Bay in the playoffs last year, and really once you’re in the playoffs, you’re going to run into a coach who is easily capable of pantsing Mike. Giving him the metaphorical swirlie. Knocking the hypothetical stack of books out of his hands. They have a -.157 EPA per play. They are 22^nd in DVOA. The Cowboys are done.

20. Tampa Bay Bucs: 55.53, -14.65 – The Bucs are plucky. I like the Bucs; Baker is fun, and their skill position guys are fun. If the plucky Bucs use Bucky Irving more their luck will buck even more trends and be fun all over. But good lord, you lost to the Denver Broncos, and someone named Tyler Badie rushed for 70 yards on just 9 carries against you. And while the Bucs are fun, their -.057 EPA per play doesn’t indicate that they’re underrated or anything of the sort. Still, maybe that week one win over the Commanders looks a lot better in a few weeks.

21. Chicago Bears: 51.97, 1.09 – There is plenty of blame to go around in Chicago for sure, but I think most of it has to go to offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. While the Bears’ offensive line hasn’t been good over the past few years, they were more like the 22nd-best line than the absolute worst in the 2023 season. You should be able to work with them. You should be able to run on the Colts with them. Yes, Caleb Williams has been bad, but he’s a rookie. It’s your job as a coach to bring him along using the skills he has. Running back D’Andre Swift also hasn’t helped, though it remains bizarre that they attempt to use him as some kind of between-the-tackles brick house instead of the straw house that he is. He has 37 carries for 68 yards on the year, and rather than push piles, he attracts them backward like some sort of pile black hole roaming around behind the line of scrimmage. Waldron needs to start using motion (the Bears are third last in the league in using motion), and scheming someone, anyone, open, or they’re going to Bears this up again. They’re 24^th in DVOA, though they somehow have a positive EPA per Play.

22. Denver Broncos: 51.03, 20.64 – The second biggest riser of the week, the Broncos actually beat the Bucs pretty severely, 26-7. Denver’s EPA per Play is an impressive zero, for a team that was one of the worst in football in these rankings just last week (31^st). Now, did Bo Nix throw a touchdown? No. Did they kick four field goals? Yes. But Nix did run for one, and the defensive effort was genuinely impressive. At least the Broncos can do SOMETHING.

23. New York Giants: 48.09: 15.29 – Also shooting up the charts, we have Malik Nabers and company. The Giants beat the dumbest, most despicable team in football by basically just throwing it up to Malik Nabers, who would easily be rookie of the year if not for Jayden Daniels. There are 11 teams in the league with a worse DVOA than the Giants, which is without question the highest compliment I can imagine granting them this year.

24. Washington Commanders: 47.56, 8.38 – Washington is 2-1 and coming off of one of the most electrifying performances of the season as rookie Jayden Daniels lit up the Bengals. They haven’t punted since Week 1. So, what gives, and why are they behind the Giants, who they beat and have a better record than? The problem is that Tampa put up 37 on them, and Cinci put up 33 on them, and while Washington beat the Giants, you may remember that game as the first time in NFL history that a team that scored three touchdowns lost to a team that scored zero touchdowns. They’re 26^th in DVOA, and the defense is a big reason. They have a negative EPA per play, and perhaps Jayden turns this all around going forward, but there are two sides to football.

25. New England Patriots: 45, -12.09 – The Patriots are going to be pathetic against any kind of real defense, and the Jets have that. At least we got to see Drake Maye take two sacks. They’re averaging -.144 EPA per Play, which is actually better than the Cowboys. Pantsed!

26. Los Angeles Rams: 43.92, 8.39. The Rams are as beaten up as a team can be, but you can never count out a team with an upper-level quarterback, and Matthew Stafford managed to lead a furious comeback even though his lead receiver, Tutu Atwell, weighed 155 pounds at the NFL Scouting Combine in 2021. They’re not good and rank 25^th in DVOA, but maybe they can hang around the fringes until Kupp and Nacua are ready to return.

27. Cleveland Browns: 41.04, -5.12

Fun times in Cleveland today, it’s Cleveland!

Come on down to Cleveland Town everyone,

Our DVOA is worse than Carolina,

Our best receiver has 9 yards a catch, he only catches a third of his targets.

We start Za’Darius Smith as an edge, he’s 32 and leads the team with two sacks,

We traded for Jerry Jeudy, he had to move from Denver to Cleveland

Our QB’s a sexual predator, we paid him $250,000,000 bucks.

Our team’s so bad we lost to the Cowboys, also we lost to the Giants,

It could be worse though at least we’re not Jacksonville!

Still not Jacksonville!

28. Tennessee Titans: 38.22, -6.09 – The Titans are interesting because they’re screw-ups. I don’t think they’re that talented, but I suspect they have more talent than a few of the teams above them, but insane punt blocks, sack-fumbles, picks, and just overall sloppiness has them down here with the dregs. Matt LaFleur is a great coach for sure, but you shouldn’t have your lunch eaten quite this easily when facing the quarterback you traded away for nothing and has been with his new team for like three weeks. As a result of all of this, the Titans have the worst PFF grade of any team in football. They also lost to the Bears, remember.

29. Jacksonville Jaguars: 37.29, -17.47: The Jags are 0-3. They lost to Miami before Miami lost Tua, they lost to the frickin’ Browns, and they lost on Monday night, by 37, to the Bills. Trevor Lawrence is completing 52.8% of his passes and has been so bad that if The Good Place was still on Jason Mendoza would have switched from yelling Bortles to Lawrence by now. Jacksonville has the second-lowest EPA per Play in the league, just ahead of their expansion-era buddies.

30. Las Vegas Raiders: 36.67, -4.75. The sad thing for the Raiders is that this is basically where you expect them to be. When you enter a season starting Gardner Minshew you’ve set your ceiling pretty low, and that’s where they are, low. Brock Bowers is pretty good, so at least they have that. The Panthers just scored 36 against the Raiders.

31. Miami Dolphins: 36.29, -9.04 – This got ugly in a hurry. In fairness to Miami, they did run into two excellent teams in the Bills and Seahawks over the past two weeks. That said, without Tua, they don’t look like a real football team. Their running back leads the team in receptions, and no one has the arm to make Tyreek Hill work. They are dead last in DVOA, but still +7500 to win the Super Bowl!

32. Carolina Panthers: 33.38, 28.60 – Shooting from last to last, the Panthers replaced their quarterback and Andy Dalton responded with the league’s first 300-yard, 3 TD passing performance of the year. They are the biggest riser of the week (can’t fall off the floor) and Dalton made a strong case for just how bad Bryce Young actually was. Unfortunately, Adam Thielen is out with a hamstring injury, but maybe the young kids can start to build something that isn’t last in every metric. They’re already out of the DVOA cellar, but they are still bringing up the rear in EPA and Super Bowl odds.