We’ve all been there: You start Halloween night with the best intentions, maybe just a Snickers or two, but before you know it, you’re 12 fun-sized Snickers deep, and the regret settles in. That same wave of regret hit me last Sunday after I played (and even told the FootClan to start) Tua over Kyler. The decision made sense at the time; the process was sound. But sometimes, even the best analysis can’t fully predict how things will actually shake out. Sugar highs and crashes aren’t all that different from the rollercoaster of emotions we ride each Sunday. So grab some water, maybe a Tums, and let’s dive into some of the most requested lineup decisions using the Fantasy Footballers’ Start/Sit tool for Week 9.

Bo Nix showed out last week with three passing TDs, a rushing TD, and 284 passing yards. Over the past four weeks, he’s put up a top-10 performance three times. Dak? He hasn’t had a top-10 finish since Week 2 when he played the Ravens. Guess who plays the Ravens this week? Bo Nix. The Ravens are the second easiest matchup for quarterbacks according to the Fantasy Footballer’s Strength of Schedule tool – allowing an average of 23.4 fantasy points to the position. Last week, the Ravens allowed Jameis Winston to score three TDs and throw for 334 yards in his first season start. The offensive rookie of the month shouldn’t slow down this week. He’s the current QB9 on the season, which is definitely not what I predicted.

Bo Nix LEADS ALL ROOKIES with 12 TDs through 8 weeks 🤯#BroncosCountry pic.twitter.com/SJJ5Rta6tZ

— NFL GameDay (@NFLGameDay) October 30, 2024

Another surprise this season has been how disappointing Dak Prescott has been for fantasy managers. Instead of being a reliable QB1, he’s currently sitting at QB19, with only 10 touchdowns against eight interceptions. That’s not exactly what anyone had in mind on draft day. This week, the Cowboys take on the Falcons in what is predicted to be a shootout with an over/under of 51.5. The Cowboys have an implied total of 24, and it’s unlikely they’ll get there by running the ball — their ground game is dead last in the league. They’ll have to rely on Dak’s arm if they want to contend. Jason even made Dak his Start of the Week, pointing out that the Falcons have allowed two or more passing touchdowns to every QB they’ve faced in the last month.

Verdict: I’m going against Jason’s optimism for a Dak breakout and sticking with the guy already delivering: Bo Nix over Dak this week. Sure, Dak got the big contract, but with the Cowboys’ non-existent run game, defenses know he will be forced to throw, making him more prone to turnovers. Meanwhile, Bo Nix should keep rolling against a defense that couldn’t even stop Jameis Winston in his first start.

More like Darnell Money! That touchdown catch from Mooney last week was impressive, and he also led the Falcons in receiving yards — take that, Drake London and Kyle Pitts! The current WR13 on the season, Mooney is averaging 13.7 fantasy points per game. The chemistry between him and Kirk Cousins is evident, as Mooney ranks seventh overall in deep targets. Plus, with the Falcons-Cowboys game sitting at an over/under of 51.5, this is a matchup fantasy managers should be targeting. Matt Savoca wrote about why he’s targeting Mooney in DFS, pointing out his increased usage (sometimes over London) in this Falcons offense.

“Mooney has increased his fantasy output by nearly eight points per game in his first year as a member of the Falcons and ranks sixth among all wide receivers in total EPA.”

The Cowboys’ defense is tough on wide receivers, having surrendered just five touchdown passes this season. However, they’ve been more vulnerable to running backs, who have found the end zone 10 times against them through Week 8. My other concern is that the Dallas Cowboys‘ defensive coordinator, Mike Zimmer, was once Kirk Cousins‘ head coach; if anyone knows how to stop Cousins, it’s Zimmer.

Now, on to Andy’s Start of the Week: Josh Downs. Downs has been hyper-targeted and is among the league leaders in targets per route run. With Flacco, he is averaging 15.2 fantasy points per game.

Caleb Leach writes in his Starts of the Week article that “The Colts are facing a Vikings defense that has become a proper pass funnel defense, ranking 32nd in opponent pass attempts and completions per game and 31st in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs.” The Vikings allow 39.9 fantasy points to opposing teams’ WRS per game. The target share plus the matchup makes this a must-start situation for Downs.

Verdict: Josh Downs this week. The matchup and opportunity are too good, especially with Joe Flacco under center.

If you picked up Cedric Tillman off waivers instead of Jalen McMillan last week, you made the right call. McMillan still has the chance to put up points, but Tillman’s performance with Amari Cooper sidelined and Jameis Winston under center was impressive.

Top-5 RB Scores of the Week
James Cook – 26.8
Josh Jacobs – 25.0
De’Von Achane – 23.7
Rhamondre Stevenson – 22.0
Joe Mixon – 21.4

— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) October 28, 2024

Yes, you read the right. Tillman finished last week in the top five WR scores of the week. After scoring him off the waiver wire, it’d be easy to return to Tillman this week. Right? Well, this week, the matchup isn’t favorable for Tillman. The Cleveland Browns take on the Los Angeles Chargers, whose defense shut down wide receivers. According to Kurt Mullen’s Week 9 Matchups to Consider article:

“Los Angeles’ defense has allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards and passing TDs on the season.”

De’Andre Hopkins is not only in a prime position to chase a Super Bowl ring but he’s also set up to be a major fantasy producer in our lineups. Last week, the Chiefs eased Hopkins in, only targeting him three times.

Hopkins outlook with Mahomes pic.twitter.com/ikWEMitQk0

— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) October 24, 2024

With a week of practice behind him, Hopkins will see more targets this week. Coach Andy Reid confirmed, saying, “WR DeAndre Hopkins‘ role will continue to increase this week. We’re comfortable with that, and I think he’s comfortable with it.” While it’s unclear exactly how many more looks Hopkins will get, the matchup couldn’t be better. Vegas has set his line at 3.5 receptions, which feels low given the circumstances. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have struggled against the pass, allowing the third-most passing yards and the ninth-highest QB rating this season. Hopkins is in a solid spot to capitalize.

Verdict: Last week was a true breakout for Cedric Tillman, so I get it if you’re considering starting him. But I’m rolling with DeAndre Hopkins. His matchup is more favorable, and the Chiefs’ implied team total is higher than the Browns’. When Andy Reid says Hopkins is ready for more targets, I’m listening — I don’t want to be a week late on Hopkins securing his role in this offense.

Look who’s back! After eight weeks stashed in your IR spot, it’s finally time to fire up Hockenson, right? We’ve all been waiting for this moment, and the anticipation has been real for his fantasy managers. But should we be concerned about his usage in his first game back? Normally, yes. However, Vikings Head Coach Kevin O’Connell reassured reporters that Hockenson is fully healthy and won’t be on a snap count. So, what does this mean for fantasy? Realistically, I wouldn’t expect a massive game from him right out of the gate. Even if he’s 100%, Hockenson hasn’t played since Christmas Eve last year, and this will be his first time catching passes from Sam Darnold — a QB not exactly known for targeting his tight ends heavily. While Hockenson’s return is big news for the Vikings overall, I’m tempering expectations for fantasy this week despite all the excitement.

Tucker Kraft has to be the tight end waiver wire pickup of the season. Last week he finished the TE8 and has two TE1 finishes this year. Jordan Love heavily targets him in the end zone. According to Marvin Elequin, last week Kraft led all receivers in Receiving Expected Points Added per Target.

Receiving EPA per Target
Week 8 (pre-MNF)

Only fitting that Tucker Kraft & Kyle Pitts led all receivers in Receiving Expected Points Added per Target on #NationalTightEndsDay

Adam Trautman, Grant Calcaterra, Brock Bowers, and George Kittle also make an appearance in the top 15 pic.twitter.com/HrlsLTVdXQ

— Marvin Elequin (@FF_MarvinE) October 28, 2024

The matchup this week isn’t ideal for Kraft. The Detroit Lions allow the second-fewest receiving yards to tight ends. The red zone usage, however, can’t be ignored. Jordan Love is questionable with a groin injury, so if he doesn’t start, pivot.

Verdict: I’m an “I’ve got to see it to believe it” kind of girl, so until I see Hockenson back in full form with regular usage, it’s tough for me to slot him into my lineup. Kraft has been consistently producing, and while his ceiling may be limited by the matchup, his red zone involvement keeps the fantasy points coming. If Love doesn’t start, I’d pivot to Hockenson. Keep an eye on the injury report and choose accordingly.

Have more lineup questions? Reach out to me on X anytime, and don’t forget to check in with Mike on Sunday mornings for those clutch, last-minute insights. Set your lineups with confidence — let’s get that win!