It took only five games before the first head coach firing of the 2024 NFL season, and even the New York Jets’ biggest preseason critics probably didn’t envision Robert Saleh as the first to be shown the door. The Jets sit at 2-3 and have an opportunity to take first place in the division if they win against the Bills at home on Monday Night Football.

It’s usually worth betting on a team after it hits rock bottom and fires the coach, but did the Jets hit rock bottom? A six-point loss in London to the undefeated Vikings is hardly a poor result, but Saleh’s firing adds even more intrigue to the closing game of Week 6. Before that, though, there are 13 other Week 6 NFL games, including three matchups of two teams .500 or better.

Week 6 brings about the season’s second round of bye weeks, as the Chiefs, Vikings, Rams, and Dolphins have the week off.

Here are my thoughts on all 14 Week 6 games, starting with Thursday Night Football. I’ll let you know which games I’m passing on, considering betting on, and have already bet on. All lines are from FanDuel as of Wednesday morning, unless otherwise noted.

Thursday Night Football

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (+3.5)

Arizona shut out the 49ers in the second half on Sunday, but that was more a matter of bad luck than anything the Cardinals did to slow San Francisco down. The absence of a field goal kicker forced the Niners to go for it on fourth-and-23 in field goal range, and the Jordan Mason fumble inside the 10-yard line cost them a chance to extend their lead in the fourth quarter. The 49ers still finished the week in the top 10 in success rate, totaled 384 yards, and posted 6.1 yards per play.

After starting the season with three stellar performances, the Seattle defense has come crashing back down to earth. Daniel Jones was able to move the ball effectively against this Seattle defense without its top wideout, Malik Nabers, just one week after Detroit scored 42 points and Jared Goff had zero incompletions.

Some of this decline can be attributed to the schedule, as the Seahawks faced tough opponents such as Denver, New England, and Miami. However, the worsening injury situation has also played a significant role in their recent struggles. The Tuesday injury report listed Riq Woolen, Derick Hall, Byron Murphy II, and Uchenna Nwosu as nonparticipants. With key players missing at every level, Seattle’s defense has clear limitations.

The Niners currently sit at 2-3, but the market still favors them and shows little concern about their future performance. San Francisco opened as a -3 favorite and has since been bet up to -3.5. The San Francisco defense has also had difficulty making stops, ranking 14th in expected points added per drive, and will now be without safety Talanoa Hufanga. Considering this, betting on the over or the 49ers team total over seems like the best option in this matchup.

Verdict: Lean San Francisco team total over 26.5 (-110).

Sunday Matchups

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Chicago Bears (-1.5) in London

It’s hard to properly quantify what edge Jacksonville has by playing in these London games every year. The familiarity with the trip across the pond and everything that comes with it is definitely an edge, especially considering the Bears have a rookie quarterback and a coaching staff who haven’t made the trip before.

Trevor Lawrence finally had his get-right game for the Jacksonville offense last week against the Colts, but this Bears coverage unit is a much more difficult test for Lawrence and this offense. The Jaguars offense still grades pretty well in success rate metrics—15th through five weeks—which means I’ll refuse to give up on it even when everyone else has.

One major question in this matchup is how Jacksonville will try to defend this Chicago offense. The Jaguars have had real issues with tackling and giving up explosive plays, and they continue to mostly use a heavy man scheme on defense. The only time the Jaguars went away from that was in Week 4, when they played mostly zone against C.J. Stroud. Caleb Williams has seen mostly zone defenses thus far in his young NFL career; only five teams have seen a lower percentage of man. How the Jags choose to defend him will be interesting. I could bet on Jacksonville here, but not confidently given the London variance.

Verdict: Lean Jacksonville +1.5.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (+3.5)

Derek Carr’s oblique injury on Monday Night Football caused a shift in the betting line from Saints -2.5 on the look ahead to Tampa Bay -3.5. Jake Haener replaced Carr on Monday, but rookie Spencer Rattler, a fifth-round draft pick, could potentially start for New Orleans, according to Mike Garafolo’s reporting. The New Orleans offensive line exceeded all preseason expectations in the first two weeks of the season, but injuries have now affected the unit.

Saints EPA/drive by week:

Week 1: 2nd
Week 2: 2nd
Week 3: 22nd
Week 4: 13th
Week 5: 22nd

The offensive line struggled against the Chiefs’ aggressive blitzing on Monday night with Carr in the lineup, and I doubt it will fare much better against Todd Bowles’s equally aggressive defense on Sunday with a rookie quarterback. The Buccaneers have a significant rest advantage coming off of Thursday night, and this extra rest could potentially allow them to have key safety Antoine Winfield Jr. back from his injury.

The New Orleans offensive line ranks last in true pass sets, while Tampa Bay’s offense is showing improved early-down statistics compared to previous years. The matchup and circumstances are not favorable for the Saints to start a rookie quarterback, so I’m betting against them.

Verdict: Bet Tampa Bay at -2.5 or better.

Washington Commanders at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)

No one wants to bet the under with two exciting, dynamic quarterbacks who have led two of the league’s most efficient offenses. These are the kind of ugly wagers necessary to truly succeed when betting on the NFL long term, and they’re the kind of bet that has a high potential to make you appear stupid come Sunday if the game turns into one of the most exciting matches of the season.

The stats are simple through four weeks. Washington is 29th in defensive EPA per drive, and Baltimore is 23rd. Efficient pass offenses have been able to move the ball on the Ravens secondary at will, and Washington has proved itself as one of those offenses, as it ranks first in offensive EPA per drive, while Baltimore is third. With all of that being said, it’s really hard to make the case for this market price on the total.

The Commanders secondary still can’t really cover anyone, but the interior of the defensive line and the play of Frankie Luvu have made the front seven passable. That will be key in holding up against Derrick Henry, which Cincinnati really could not do in the game on Sunday, even when it had the lead.

It is notable to me that even in a blowout win last week, Washington posted its lowest success rate of the season by far, at 38.5 percent, ranking 20th out of 28 teams who played in Week 5.

This is the ultimate hold-your-nose-and-bet ugly play of the week. Any total over 51 in the 2024 NFL should be intuitively looked at with skepticism.

Verdict: Bet under 52.5 (-115).

Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers (-5.5)

This is one of the highest variance games on the board in Week 6 because the Packers are truly one of the most volatile teams in the league. It may not seem that way given that they’re 3-2 through five weeks and playing to about preseason expectations, but the Packers have low success rates on both sides of the ball and are making up for it with explosive outlier plays.

On one hand, that’s how this offense is somewhat built to operate given its dynamic downfield playmakers and quarterback. The Packers are just 21st in success rate offensively and will face off against a defense that is super passive and generally designed to force you to be more methodical than you’d like on Sunday. Arizona doesn’t have a good defense, but it is in the middle of the league in preventing plays of 20-plus yards.

Can Arizona force Green Bay into mistakes if the Packers are forced to execute lengthy drives? Also, how good is the Green Bay defense in general? The Packers defense is 26th in success rate and has skated by because it’s forced 14 turnovers, the most in the NFL. Is that a product of being a great defense? Or is it a product of playing against Anthony Richardson, Will Levis, and the recently turnover-prone Jalen Hurts?

Major questions still exist for me with the Packers, and I’m staying away from this game.

Verdict: Pass.

Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) at Tennessee Titans

Major question marks surround the quarterback position for both of these teams entering Week 6. There’s a difference in how the Titans offense operates with Will Levis and with Mason Rudolph, especially given the high-variance nature of Levis’s play. Levis had already committed a turnover after just four pass attempts by the time he left the Week 4 game with an injury. Rudolph went 9-for-17 and historically doesn’t throw the ball down the field as much.

Of the 98 quarterbacks with at least 80 snaps since 2020, Anthony Richardson ranks second in aDOT, Levis is third, and Colts backup Joe Flacco is fifth. Because of the high frequency of downfield throws for both teams and the fast pace at which the Colts like to play, the over is once again the only viable option in this game.

The starting quarterback for the Colts remains uncertain, but Indianapolis has shown explosiveness with either Richardson or Flacco at the helm.

Verdict: Lean over 43.5.

Houston Texans (-7) at New England Patriots

The Patriots are taking a trial-by-fire approach with rookie quarterback Drake Maye, who will make his first career start behind an offensive line that hasn’t shown the ability to protect him. The Patriots offensive line ranks 30th in pass blocking, according to PFF, and Houston’s pass rush has been a strong point for the defense. The Texans are fourth in pass rush win rate, and their ability to play man-to-man defense, spy on Josh Allen, and generate pressure with just four players was key in their recent win against Buffalo. While their secondary may still have weaknesses against more explosive offenses, New England’s skill position group may not be able to take advantage of that potential vulnerability.

The Texans offense struggled once again in the latter half against the Bills, scoring a measly six points and needing a field goal in the game’s final seconds to secure the win. Their ongoing offensive issues have been well documented; the Texans rank 31st in EPA per play on first and second down. The offense has relied heavily on in-game heroics from C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins, but now Collins is under week-to-week injury watch and likely to miss this game.

This season, big favorites in the NFL have had difficulty covering the spread. Despite that, I am hesitant to support Maye in his first start against such a strong pass rush. Instead, I anticipate that the Texans offense will continue to struggle as they try to establish a running game and find a solution without Collins.

Verdict: Bet Texans team total under 22.5 points (-110).

Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5)

Are we certain that the Eagles should really be favored by 8.5 points against anyone? Philadelphia’s defense has been graded one of the worst in the NFL through four games, but then again, the same was said about the Commanders before they demolished Cleveland last week. Deshaun Watson and the Browns offense seem to present the perfect opportunity for any struggling defense to bounce back. The Browns are spiraling into offensive dysfunction by sticking with Watson at quarterback, and last week was my first and likely last bet on them in 2024 with him leading the team. The Browns’ power run game identity has vanished, the offensive line is plagued by injuries, and even the defense is showing vulnerabilities that weren’t present last season.

Lane Johnson, A.J. Brown, and DeVonta Smith are all returning from injury for Philadelphia. While the Eagles offense hasn’t been at its best, this game presents an opportunity to address some pre-bye-week issues. However, I wouldn’t rush to bet on the Eagles; as favorites in the late stages of last season, they lost to the Cardinals and Giants.

Verdict: Pass.

Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Denver Broncos

There are a variety of mitigating factors in this sample, but it’s interesting to note that Denver is eighth in combined offensive and defensive success rate through five games, while the Chargers are 19th. Bo Nix leads an offense that is extremely limited in terms of its ceiling, but the Broncos are capable of winning games because he doesn’t make a ton of mistakes, he’s efficient enough on underneath throws, and the defense might be a legitimately great unit. Nix has had just two turnover-worthy plays in the past four weeks combined, although his 5.2 yards per attempt remains a problem in the long term.

When you adjust the offensive numbers for their schedules, the Chargers and Broncos are 24th and 25th, respectively, in DVOA. We need to see Denver’s defense against more good offenses before fully buying stock in it, but the Chargers offense remains quite limited and unprepared to exploit anyone.

The Chargers are 31st in success rate through four games, and that includes an excellent game against the Panthers. They aim to be a power run offense, but the offensive line is 26th in adjusted line yards. Their early-down pass rate is much lower than that of every other NFL team except the Packers, whose stats are skewed by the Malik Willis starts.

All of this points to a low-scoring game where both teams will have difficulty creating a margin. I’d bet on Denver +3 or better and also look to tease the Broncos.

Verdict: Bet Denver +3.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Las Vegas Raiders

The choice between Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell is likely a lose-lose situation for Antonio Pierce, considering the Raiders’ poor running game and limited offensive skill group when Davante Adams doesn’t play. In my opinion, Minshew is currently the slightly better option, but it may be beneficial for the Raiders to explore what O’Connell can offer in what seems to be a challenging season.

The Steelers pass rush ranks among the best in the NFL, which could present difficulties for the inexperienced O’Connell. Surprisingly, however, he has done a commendable job of avoiding sacks; he has a career sack rate of 6.5% through 404 dropbacks.

On paper, Pittsburgh should win this game. However, even though they’ve had only two losses this season, historically, supporting the Steelers as a road favorite in the Mike Tomlin era has not been a profitable decision. The Steelers offense has been limiting George Pickens’s snap counts, and there are few other offensive assets to help them get a significant lead and distance themselves from what should be a weaker opponent.

Verdict: Pass.

Atlanta Falcons (-6.5) at Carolina Panthers

Carolina’s offensive line was one of its strong points, but the loss of center Austin Corbett and right tackle Taylor Moton to injury against Chicago makes it really difficult to project much about this offense, which had previously shown real signs of life since Andy Dalton became quarterback. The Falcons don’t offer much in terms of pass rush (both of these defenses are bottom five in pass rush win rate), but the injuries could hurt the Panthers running game, which had quietly produced a top-three rush offense by success rate.

Both quarterbacks should have time to dissect the porous secondary of the opponent. Atlanta is 21st in EPA per pass allowed, and the Panthers are down at 30th. The market has taken full notice of the Falcons’ offensive explosion against Tampa Bay indoors and the Panthers’ defensive woes against the Bears. The look-ahead line was Atlanta -3.5, with a total of 44.5.

The market is now putting Atlanta at -6.5 and projecting a total of 47.5, indicating that there’s been an upgrade to the Atlanta offense and the projections for Carolina’s defensive output.

Verdict: Pass.

Detroit Lions (-3) at Dallas Cowboys

A rematch of one of the more controversial games of the 2023-24 NFL season is on the horizon. Last season in Dallas, the Cowboys were 5.5-point home favorites against the Lions. There’s been a full 8.5-point market adjustment between Week 17 in January and now.

In my opinion, the market has gone too far in downgrading Dallas and upgrading Detroit. Jared Goff had one of the best games of his career in the win against Seattle, which was the last time we all saw the Lions. The offense is still elite when it comes to consistently moving the ball down the field, but both of these teams still have real red zone questions worth asking.

Dallas had three straight sluggish offensive performances (in terms of success rate) to begin the season, but they had back-to-back weeks of consistently moving the ball down the field against the Giants and Steelers, offering a glimpse of what it can do when operating at its best. Last season, Dallas had similar issues before the bye week before transforming into one of the league’s best offenses. The Cowboys’ ceiling might be a bit lower in 2024, but the Lions secondary will leave opportunities for them to play their way back into the game. I’ll take the considerably better quarterback at home as an underdog of at least a field goal.

Don’t be surprised if both teams have a bunch of long, methodical drives that end in field goals.

Verdict: Bet Dallas (+3).

Sunday Night Football

Cincinnati Bengals at New York Giants

The Giants have been a perfectly average NFL team through five weeks, and their Week 1 and Week 2 results against the Vikings and Commanders don’t look nearly as bad now that we know both opponents are far better than we’d expected at the time. Star wideout Malik Nabers should also be back for this game. However, the Bengals are finally playing an offense that can’t successfully exploit their disastrous run defense. The Giants are 30th in EPA per rush.

The market for this game moved down from Cincinnati -5 on the look-ahead to the current -3.5, indicating some real market upgrade for the Giants following their upset win in Seattle without Nabers.

If you just use series success rate, a metric that looks at how often a team prevents a first down or converts one, the Giants are a league-average team as well. The Bengals have every signal of a buy-low team imaginable, but if the market is already pricing in that they’ll make that comeback, there’s no real value in betting them. That’s how I feel about this line.

Verdict: Pass.

Monday Night Football

Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at New York Jets

Robert Saleh is out, Jeff Ulbrich is in, and I still don’t expect much to change for the 2024 Jets. Their coverage unit has proved itself to be arguably the best in the NFL so far, posting three straight stellar defensive performances. If the Jets can force the Bills to be methodical, they can exploit their lack of explosiveness, which was evident in their game against the Texans. On the other side, Buffalo’s defense is well suited to playing against limited offensive teams like the Jets. New York lacks a real threat to expose Buffalo over the middle of the field, and the Bills’ defensive health continues to improve overall.

The Bills run defense is a potential weakness that could be exploited, but the Jets rank 29th in EPA per rush. This is similar to last week; Houston attempted to run the ball against Buffalo but struggled to do so effectively.

The Bills rank sixth in plays of 20-plus yards allowed, and both offenses are in the bottom half of the league in plays of 10-plus yards. A lack of explosiveness has been a defining issue for both offenses at this point in the season, and these two defenses are among the most well coached in the league.

Verdict: Bet under 41 (-110 at DraftKings).

Week 6 Bets I’ve made already:

Commanders-Ravens under 52.5 (-110)
Texans team total under 22.5 points (-110)
Broncos +3 (-110)
Cowboys +3 (+100)
Bills-Jets under 41 (-110 at DraftKings)