Over the last 14 NFL seasons there have been 27 rookie quarterbacks who have started 13 or more games. If we expand that to 12 games, then we add six more.
Fifteen rookie QBs have started every game over the last fourteen seasons, so roughly one per year. Recently Bryce Young started all but one last season, while CJ Stroud started 15 of 17. No rookie QB started more than Kenny Pickett’s twelve in 2022. Both Mac Jones and Trevor Lawrence started all 17 in 2021. Way back in 2020 when there were only 16 regular season games, Justin Herbert started 15. Kyler Murray started every game in 2019. Even top 3 picks like Sam Darnold, Blake Bortles, Zach Wilson and Baker Mayfield didn’t start every game as rookies. In some cases that is due to injury, but in many cases it is due to a veteran “place-holder” QB starting the first few games. Bo Nix does not have to contend with that as he is the starter for the opener against Seattle.
Let’s shift the focus to the best, worst and average among the recent (last 14 seasons) rookie starting QBs. The average stat line for rookie QBs with a min of 12 starts is:
14.6 GS, 289 COMP, 480 ATT, 60.2%, 3245 YDs, 17.5 TD, 12.4 INT, PR 81.9, 42.2% Success, 36 sacks, 5.4 ANYA, 1.3 pick 6’s allowed
The best and worst:
I expect Bo to be above average in terms of TD:INT ratio since he was so good at avoiding INTs while at Oregon. I think yards are going to be about average for recent rookie starting QBs.
In terms of rushing the 33 QBs did this as rookies
Rk | Player | Yds | Season | Age | Team | GS | Att | Yds | Y/A | TD | Y/G | 1D | Succ% |
13 | Trevor Lawrence | 334 | 2021 | 22 | JAX | 17 | 73 | 334 | 4.6 | 2 | 19.6 | 22 | 50.7 |
42 | Mac Jones | 129 | 2021 | 23 | NWE | 17 | 44 | 129 | 2.9 | 0 | 7.6 | 22 | 52.3 |
2 | Cam Newton | 706 | 2011 | 22 | CAR | 16 | 126 | 706 | 5.6 | 14 | 44.1 | 53 | 53.2 |
5 | Kyler Murray | 544 | 2019 | 22 | ARI | 16 | 93 | 544 | 5.8 | 4 | 34 | 27 | 48.4 |
6 | Russell Wilson | 489 | 2012 | 24 | SEA | 16 | 94 | 489 | 5.2 | 4 | 30.6 | 29 | 55.3 |
10 | Geno Smith | 366 | 2013 | 23 | NYJ | 16 | 72 | 366 | 5.1 | 6 | 22.9 | 24 | 50 |
14 | Dak Prescott | 282 | 2016 | 23 | DAL | 16 | 57 | 282 | 4.9 | 6 | 17.6 | 21 | 54.4 |
17 | Andrew Luck | 255 | 2012 | 23 | IND | 16 | 62 | 255 | 4.1 | 5 | 15.9 | 24 | 53.2 |
18 | Bryce Young | 253 | 2023 | 22 | CAR | 16 | 39 | 253 | 6.5 | 0 | 15.8 | 18 | 64.1 |
25 | Jameis Winston | 213 | 2015 | 21 | TAM | 16 | 54 | 213 | 3.9 | 6 | 13.3 | 19 | 42.6 |
26 | Ryan Tannehill | 211 | 2012 | 24 | MIA | 16 | 49 | 211 | 4.3 | 2 | 13.2 | 16 | 42.9 |
33 | Andy Dalton | 152 | 2011 | 24 | CIN | 16 | 37 | 152 | 4.1 | 1 | 9.5 | 8 | 29.7 |
34 | Carson Wentz | 150 | 2016 | 24 | PHI | 16 | 46 | 150 | 3.3 | 2 | 9.4 | 17 | 47.8 |
1 | Robert Griffin III | 815 | 2012 | 22 | WAS | 15 | 120 | 815 | 6.8 | 7 | 54.3 | 45 | 56.7 |
9 | DeShone Kizer | 419 | 2017 | 21 | CLE | 15 | 77 | 419 | 5.4 | 5 | 27.9 | 32 | 50.6 |
22 | Justin Herbert | 234 | 2020 | 22 | LAC | 15 | 55 | 234 | 4.3 | 5 | 15.6 | 20 | 49.1 |
32 | C.J. Stroud | 167 | 2023 | 22 | HOU | 15 | 39 | 167 | 4.3 | 3 | 11.1 | 17 | 59 |
45 | Brandon Weeden | 111 | 2012 | 29 | CLE | 15 | 27 | 111 | 4.1 | 0 | 7.4 | 12 | 51.9 |
8 | Blake Bortles | 419 | 2014 | 22 | JAX | 13 | 56 | 419 | 7.5 | 0 | 29.9 | 29 | 62.5 |
30 | Zach Wilson | 185 | 2021 | 22 | NYJ | 13 | 29 | 185 | 6.4 | 4 | 14.2 | 10 | 44.8 |
36 | Sam Darnold | 138 | 2018 | 21 | NYJ | 13 | 44 | 138 | 3.1 | 1 | 10.6 | 16 | 38.6 |
37 | Josh Rosen | 138 | 2018 | 21 | ARI | 13 | 23 | 138 | 6.0 | 0 | 9.9 | 8 | 39.1 |
41 | Baker Mayfield | 131 | 2018 | 23 | CLE | 13 | 39 | 131 | 3.4 | 0 | 9.4 | 8 | 38.5 |
12 | Gardner Minshew II | 344 | 2019 | 23 | JAX | 12 | 67 | 344 | 5.1 | 0 | 24.6 | 20 | 43.3 |
15 | Daniel Jones | 279 | 2019 | 22 | NYG | 12 | 45 | 279 | 6.2 | 2 | 21.5 | 21 | 66.7 |
19 | Marcus Mariota | 252 | 2015 | 22 | TEN | 12 | 34 | 252 | 7.4 | 2 | 21 | 11 | 44.1 |
20 | Mitchell Trubisky | 248 | 2017 | 23 | CHI | 12 | 41 | 248 | 6.0 | 2 | 20.7 | 14 | 39 |
21 | Kenny Pickett | 237 | 2022 | 24 | PIT | 12 | 55 | 237 | 4.3 | 3 | 18.2 | 23 | 60 |
27 | Teddy Bridgewater | 209 | 2014 | 22 | MIN | 12 | 47 | 209 | 4.4 | 1 | 16.1 | 15 | 46.8 |
Cam Newton had 14 rushing TDs as a rookie he also had the most rushing first downs with 53. Robert Griffin had the most yards with 815 and the most rushing yards per game with 54.3. The highest success rate on runs was Daniel Jones at 66.7%. A successful run gains 40% of the needed yards on first down, 60% of the needed yarded on second down and converts on third or fourth down. Lamar Jackson only started 7 games as a rookie but ran for 695 yards on 147 carries and five TDs.
The average was 58 runs for 301 yards and 5 TDs with 21 first downs. The carries are skewed high because of Newton’s 126 and Griffin’s 120. For what it’s worth, Justin Fields, who only started 10 games as a rookie, ran the ball 72 times for 420 yards and 2 TDs. Tim Tebow, who only started 3 games, ran the ball 43 times for 227 yards and six TDs. I would expect Bo to carry the ball 4 or so times per game and finish with north of 300 yards and three or four rushing TDs.
Don’t laugh, but I would not be surprised to see Bo put up similar numbers to Geno Smith as a rookie in terms of rushing stats. Smith carried the ball 72 times for 366 yards and 6 TDs as a rookie with the Jets.
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