There is less than three weeks until the field of 68 is set for the 2025 men’s NCAA tournament.

With teams on the bubble vying for bids and the race for 1-seeds seemingly wide open, we asked our college basketball experts Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf to continue the ESPN tradition of selecting the eight teams they believe have the best chance to win the national title — a process that requires eliminating the other 356 teams from consideration.

They split every Division I men’s college basketball team into tiers below, making the cases for the eight with the best chances to cut down the nets in San Antonio on April 7.

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The eight that can win it all | The 22 near-misses

The 9 ineligible teams

East Texas A&M Lions
Le Moyne Dolphins
Lindenwood Lions
Mercyhurst Lakers
Queens University Royals
St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies
Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles
Stonehill Skyhawks
West Georgia Wolves

The 325 teams with no clear path

Abilene Christian Wildcats
Air Force Falcons
Akron Zips
Alabama A&M Bulldogs
Alabama State Hornets
UAlbany Great Danes
Alcorn State Braves
American University Eagles
App State Mountaineers
Arizona State Sun Devils
Arkansas Razorbacks
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Army Black Knights
Austin Peay Governors
Ball State Cardinals
Bellarmine Knights
Belmont Bruins
Bethune-Cookman Wildcats
Binghamton Bearcats
Boise State Broncos
Boston College Eagles
Boston University Terriers
Bowling Green Falcons
Bradley Braves
BYU Cougars
Brown Bears
Bryant Bulldogs
Bucknell Bison
Buffalo Bulls
Butler Bulldogs
Cal Poly Mustangs
California Golden Bears
California Baptist Lancers

Campbell Fighting Camels
Canisius Golden Griffins
Central Arkansas Bears
Central Connecticut Blue Devils
Central Michigan Chippewas
Charleston Cougars
Charleston Southern Buccaneers
Charlotte 49ers
Chattanooga Mocs
Chicago State Cougars
Cincinnati Bearcats
The Citadel Bulldogs
Cleveland State Vikings
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
Colgate Raiders
Colorado Buffaloes
Colorado State Rams
Columbia Lions
Coppin State Eagles
Cornell Big Red
Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners
Cal State Fullerton Titans
Cal State Northridge Matadors
Dartmouth Big Green
Davidson Wildcats
Dayton Flyers
Delaware Blue Hens
Delaware State Hornets
Denver Pioneers
DePaul Blue Demons
Detroit Mercy Titans
Drake Bulldogs
Drexel Dragons
Duquesne Dukes
East Carolina Pirates
East Tennessee State Buccaneers
Eastern Illinois Panthers
Eastern Kentucky Colonels
Eastern Michigan Eagles
Eastern Washington Eagles
Elon Phoenix
Evansville Purple Aces
Fairfield Stags
Fairleigh Dickinson Knights
Florida A&M Rattlers
Florida Atlantic Owls
Florida Gulf Coast Eagles
Florida International Panthers
Florida State Seminoles
Fordham Rams
Fresno State Bulldogs
Furman Paladins
Gardner-Webb Runnin’ Bulldogs
George Mason Patriots
George Washington Revolutionaries
Georgetown Hoyas
Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia Southern Eagles
Georgia State Panthers
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Grambling Tigers
Grand Canyon Lopes
Green Bay Phoenix
Hampton Pirates
Harvard Crimson
Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors
High Point Panthers
Hofstra Pride
Holy Cross Crusaders
Houston Christian Huskies
Howard Bison
Idaho Vandals
Idaho State Bengals
Illinois State Redbirds
Incarnate Word Cardinals
Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana State Sycamores
Iona Gaels
Iowa Hawkeyes
IU Indianapolis Jaguars
Jackson State Tigers
Jacksonville Dolphins
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
James Madison Dukes
Kansas City Roos
Kansas State Wildcats
Kennesaw State Owls
Kent State Golden Flashes
La Salle Explorers
Lafayette Leopards
Lamar Cardinals
Lehigh Mountain Hawks
Liberty Flames
Lipscomb Bisons
Little Rock Trojans
Long Beach State Beach

Long Island University Sharks
Longwood Lancers
Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns
UL Monroe Warhawks
LSU Tigers
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Loyola Chicago Ramblers
Loyola Marymount Lions
Loyola Maryland Greyhounds
Maine Black Bears
Manhattan Jaspers
Marist Red Foxes
Marshall Thundering Herd
Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks
Massachusetts Minutemen
UMass Lowell River Hawks
McNeese Cowboys
Mercer Bears
Merrimack Warriors
Miami Hurricanes
Miami (Ohio) RedHawks
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Milwaukee Panthers
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils
Missouri State Bears
Monmouth Hawks
Montana Grizzlies
Montana State Bobcats
Morehead State Eagles
Morgan State Bears
Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers
Murray State Racers
Navy Midshipmen
Nebraska Cornhuskers
New Hampshire Wildcats
Nevada Wolf Pack
New Mexico Lobos
New Mexico State Aggies
New Orleans Privateers
Niagara Purple Eagles
Nicholls Colonels
NJIT Highlanders
Norfolk State Spartans
North Alabama Lions
North Carolina A&T Aggies
North Carolina Central Eagles
NC State Wolfpack
North Dakota Fighting Hawks
North Dakota State Bison
North Florida Ospreys
North Texas Mean Green
Northeastern Huskies
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
North Carolina Tar Heels
Northern Colorado Bears
Northern Illinois Huskies
Northern Iowa Panthers
Northern Kentucky Norse
Northwestern Wildcats
Northwestern State Demons
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Oakland Golden Grizzlies
Ohio Bobcats
Ohio State Buckeyes
Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Old Dominion Monarchs
Ole Miss Rebels
Omaha Mavericks
Oral Roberts Golden Eagles
Oregon Ducks
Oregon State Beavers
Pacific Tigers
Pennsylvania Quakers
Penn State Nittany Lions
Pepperdine Waves
Pittsburgh Panthers
Portland Pilots
Portland State Vikings
Prairie View A&M Panthers
Presbyterian Blue Hose
Princeton Tigers
Providence Friars
Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons
Quinnipiac Bobcats
Radford Highlanders

Rhode Island Rams
Rice Owls
Richmond Spiders
Rider Broncs
Robert Morris Colonials
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Sacramento State Hornets
Sacred Heart Pioneers
St. Bonaventure Bonnies
St. Francis (PA) Red Flash
Saint Joseph’s Hawks
Saint Louis Billikens
Saint Peter’s Peacocks
Sam Houston Bearkats
Samford Bulldogs
San Diego Toreros
San Diego State Aztecs
San Francisco Dons
San José State Spartans
Santa Clara Broncos
Seattle U Redhawks
Seton Hall Pirates
Siena Saints
SIU Edwardsville Cougars
SMU Mustangs
South Alabama Jaguars
South Carolina Gamecocks
South Carolina State Bulldogs
South Carolina Upstate Spartans
South Dakota Coyotes
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
South Florida Bulls
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
SE Louisiana Lions
Southern Jaguars
Southern Illinois Salukis
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
Stanford Cardinal
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
Stetson Hatters
Stony Brook Seawolves
Syracuse Orange
Tarleton State Texans
TCU Horned Frogs
Temple Owls
Tennessee State Tigers
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles
Texas Longhorns
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders
Texas Southern Tigers
Texas State Bobcats
Toledo Rockets
Towson Tigers
Troy Trojans
Tulane Green Wave
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
UAB Blazers
UC Davis Aggies
UC Irvine Anteaters
UC Riverside Highlanders
UC San Diego Tritons
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
UCF Knights
UIC Flames
UMBC Retrievers
UNC Asheville Bulldogs
UNC Greensboro Spartans
UNC Wilmington Seahawks
UNLV Rebels
USC Trojans
UT Arlington Mavericks
UT Martin Skyhawks
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
Utah Utes
Utah State Aggies
Utah Tech Trailblazers
Utah Valley Wolverines
UTEP Miners
UTSA Roadrunners
Valparaiso Beacons
Vanderbilt Commodores
VCU Rams
Vermont Catamounts
Villanova Wildcats
Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia Tech Hokies
VMI Keydets
Wagner Seahawks
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Washington Huskies
Washington State Cougars
Weber State Wildcats
West Virginia Mountaineers
Western Carolina Catamounts
Western Illinois Leathernecks
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Western Michigan Broncos
Wichita State Shockers
William & Mary Tribe
Winthrop Eagles
Wofford Terriers
Wright State Raiders
Wyoming Cowboys
Xavier Musketeers
Yale Bulldogs
Youngstown State Penguins

The 22 near misses

Arizona Wildcats
Baylor Bears
Clemson Tigers
Creighton Bluejays
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Illinois Fighting Illini
Kansas Jayhawks
Kentucky Wildcats
Louisville Cardinals
Marquette Golden Eagles
Maryland Terrapins
Memphis Tigers
Michigan Wolverines
Michigan State Spartans
Missouri Tigers
Purdue Boilermakers
Saint Mary’s Gaels
Texas A&M Aggies
Texas Tech Red Raiders
UCLA Bruins
UConn Huskies
Wisconsin Badgers

The 8 that could win it all

Alabama Crimson Tide

Borzello: At its best, Alabama is tough to match. The Crimson Tide are incredibly explosive on offense — they lead the nation in scoring, rank third in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency, are top 15 in 3-pointers made per game, play at the fastest tempo in the country and have hit the 100-point mark seven times.

Nate Oats’ team is deep, experienced and makes opponents uncomfortable with its style of play. Mark Sears is an All-American and was one of five Tide players featured in ESPN’s top 100 NBA draft rankings last month. The additions of Chris Youngblood and Aden Holloway have given Alabama a different dimension, and Labaron Philon‘s early-season play was a game-changer.

There are issues, of course — mostly on the other end of the court. The Tide give up more than 80 points per game as a result of their pace of play and are 10th in the SEC in defensive efficiency, which takes into account tempo and number of possessions. Before Saturday’s win over Kentucky, Alabama had allowed four straight opponents to score 1.10 points per possession, including Auburn and Missouri, and those teams combined to score 204 points in back-to-back Alabama losses. One could point to the Tide’s reliance on 3-point shooting, but their shooting percentage has improved in conference play, and they make more than 60% of their shots from inside the arc.

The ceiling and potential is too high to ignore. If the Tide are making 3s, Alabama is capable of beating any team.

Auburn Tigers

Medcalf: If Auburn had made its free throws in the final six seconds of its first-round NCAA tournament matchup against 13th-seeded Yale last March, the Tigers might not have seemed like as much of a surprise.

In the immediate run-up to the tournament, Johni Broome — this season’s potential Wooden Award winner — led the Tigers through a 6-0 run to check in as the country’s second-best team over that stretch according to Bart Torvik, behind only eventual champion UConn. With the bulk of that team back, the addition of new players (Georgia Tech transfer Miles Kelly and four-star prospect Tahaad Pettiford) as well as one of the oldest rosters in the country, the Tigers have built on that end-of-season spark to emerge as the No. 1 team in America; a dominant force that has had a stronghold on an SEC that could be one of the greatest conferences in recent men’s college basketball history. The Tigers are the nation’s best offensive team and one of its top defensive teams, ranking first and 11th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, respectively.

Can the Tigers win it all? They have been the best team in college basketball for the bulk of the season, and Bruce Pearl is a strong contender to win national Coach of the Year. Although the one-and-done trend is a popular conversation in this sport, the truth is veteran teams have won most of the national titles over the past 20 years, and Auburn has the experience to do it.

Duke Blue Devils

Borzello: In retrospect, ranking a team with three projected top-10 NBA draft picks outside of the top five in the Associated Press preseason poll was ill-advised. Nobody knew whether the Blue Devils’ freshmen would live up to the hype early, but those fears dissipated pretty quickly with Jon Scheyer relying heavily on Cooper Flagg, Kon Knueppel and Khaman Maluach from day one. Flagg has been arguably the best player in the country this season, putting up historic numbers for a freshman and carrying the team at times. His ability to create plays is balanced by a supporting cast that ranks inside the top 15 nationally in 3-pointers made per game and inside the top 20 in 3-point percentage.

Though Duke’s offense ranks No. 2 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, it’s also in the top five in adjusted defensive efficiency and is simply elite at protecting the rim, anchored by Flagg and Maluach. The Blue Devils also lead the nation in 2-point defense, control the defensive glass and limit fouls.

There are a few questions. Can a team that starts three freshmen win it all in this era? Those concerns are somewhat mitigated by Scheyer adding a trio of veteran transfers and keeping Tyrese Proctor in the backcourt. Will Duke be prepared for the brutal road to the championship? It hasn’t faced a ranked opponent since early December. And how long is Maliq Brown out? It puts a lot of pressure on freshmen Maluach and Patrick Ngongba II on the interior if Brown is out longer than expected.

It’s pretty simple, though: top-five offense, top-five defense and Flagg — that’s a title-winning recipe.

Florida Gators

Medcalf: Entering the season, Todd Golden faced the same problem every coach in the country must navigate: He had to convince his top player to return. Thankfully for the Gators, Walter Clayton Jr. had every reason to come back for another season in Gainesville — his family lives in the area and Golden offered him the chance to play point guard. It was a smart choice for everyone involved. Clayton has been the commander of a team that’s second in both offensive and defensive efficiency in the SEC. Averaging 17.0 points, 4.0 assists and shooting 37% from beyond the arc, the senior has put together a season that will draw All-America consideration.

The Gators have weathered adversity, too, winning four games with Alex Condon sidelined by an ankle injury earlier this month. Florida Atlantic transfer Alijah Martin and emerging star Thomas Haugh helped Florida sustain its SEC title hopes in Condon’s absence. That depth could prove vital in the NCAA tournament.

Florida is top 10 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. Those numbers alone are enough to put the Gators in this conversation. But their 90-81 victory over Auburn — on the road — is the only evidence needed to prove their postseason potential. They also beat Tennessee by 30 points when the Vols were ranked No. 1.

Almost 20 years after the program secured back-to-back national titles, the Gators could cut down the nets again.

Houston Cougars

Borzello: We’ve been down this road with Houston. The Cougars have been a 1-seed in each of the past two NCAA tournaments and didn’t make it beyond the Sweet 16. But — and we hesitate to say it, given how elite both of those teams were — this group might be the best Kelvin Sampson has had in his 11 seasons at Houston.

We’ll get to the typically stout Houston defense, but what gives us so much optimism for the Cougars is their offense. It is by far the best offense of the Sampson era. The Cougars rank in the top five nationally in 3-point shooting, making more than 40% of their perimeter attempts. And they’re just as dominant on the offensive glass and turnover-averse as ever. They have the best offense in the Big 12, scoring nearly 1.17 points per possession in conference play.

Defensively, there are no concerns. Houston is elite at that end, ranking in the top five in the country in 2-point defense and block percentage, and in the top 15 in defensive turnover percentage. That said, the Cougars are more vulnerable to the 3-point shot than they have been in recent years, ranking 10th in the Big 12 in 3-point defense.

J’Wan Roberts is a brutal matchup inside, and L.J. Cryer and Emanuel Sharp are shot-makers. But can Milos Uzan be Jamal Shead? Before a few weeks ago, that answer was what kept us from buying in on Houston, but Uzan is averaging 13.9 points and 4.6 assists over his past 10 games and has shown no fear of taking (and making) big shots.

Houston has won 20 of 21 games since Dec. 7, it has its usual elite defense and now has the best offense it has ever had under Sampson. The Cougars can win it all.

Iowa State Cyclones

Medcalf: Since his first season at Iowa State (2021-22), T.J. Otzelberger has coached a squad that has routinely played elite defense. But this season’s group has been fueled by a collection of standouts who have positioned the Cyclones to battle the best teams in the country at the offensive end. Tamin Lipsey, an all-Big 12 first-team selection in 2023-24, returned this season. Plus last season’s leading scorer, Keshon Gilbert (14.1 PPG, 4.5 APG, 3.7 RPG, 1.7 SPG), has played like an All-American over certain stretches. And Curtis Jones (17.2 PPG, 37% from beyond the arc) — arguably the most improved player in the country — helped the Cyclones sail through the season as Milan Momcilovic (10.7 PPG, 41% from beyond the arc) recovered from injury.

That’s the difference for this season’s squad: the assembly of playmakers. With this crew, the Cyclones entered the week with four top-50 KenPom wins. They nearly kicked off the season with a thrilling victory over Auburn at the Maui Invitational before suffering a two-point loss. The Cyclones have the balance, talent and leadership to win a national title.

The concern? Their overall health. Jones (illness) and Gilbert (muscle strain) sat out a key matchup at Houston in late February after a hand injury cost Momcilovic multiple games. But if the Cyclones are healthy on Selection Sunday, they will be a viable contender to make the school’s first trip to the Final Four since 1944. There is also Iowa State’s favorable conference schedule (the Cyclones played Houston once), which might have inflated its run through the Big 12.

Regardless, Ozelberger’s squad can compete with any team — when it’s healthy.

St. John’s Red Storm

Borzello: The other seven teams to make this cut seemed pretty clear; each has been near the top of the rankings since the outset of the season, and outside of a couple of blips here and there, have been incredibly consistent. For the eighth, we’re going with Rick Pitino and the Red Storm. One year after missing the NCAA tournament, St. John’s is on track to win its first Big East regular-season title since 1992 and its first outright conference championship since 1985.

At the heart of the Red Storm’s success has been their defense. They are relentless at that end, ranking No. 2 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, giving up the fewest points per game in the Big East. They contest and pressure everywhere on the court, with a top-20 steal percentage and block percentage to go with the nation’s seventh-best 2-point defense.

RJ Luis Jr., Kadary Richmond and Zuby Ejiofor form one of the nation’s best trios. Luis is playing like a legitimate All-American and Big East Player of the Year contender, and Richmond has started to show why he was the No. 1 player in the portal last spring, averaging 17.4 points, 7.2 rebounds, 5.6 assists and 2.3 steals over his past nine games heading into Wednesday’s game at Butler.

It goes without saying that the offense has issues. The Red Storm rank eighth in the Big East in offensive efficiency, sitting last in 3-point percentage as well as next-to-last in free throw percentage and 2-point percentage. They have made double-digit 3s in only one game since Thanksgiving. The historical comparisons for their shooting numbers aren’t kind to their Final Four aspirations.

Here’s why St. John’s landed on our list, though: The combination of arguably the best college basketball coach of his generation and an elite defense will keep the Red Storm in games — their four losses have come by a combined seven points. And in a close game, Luis and Richmond can bully-ball opponents into submission. Will it work for six straight games? That’s the key question, but we don’t want to be the ones to bet against it.

Tennessee Volunteers

Medcalf: This season’s run by Tennessee is proof that Rick Barnes’ system works. As he seeks his first run to the Final Four since 2003 with Texas, Barnes is poised to have the same success he enjoyed a year ago in the postseason, potentially more.

Last season, Zakai Zeigler joined Dalton Knecht — a former All-American now averaging 9.0 PPG with the Los Angeles Lakers — to lead the Vols to the Elite Eight, where they lost to Purdue. But this season’s group is arguably even better. Barnes replaced Knecht with Chaz Lanier (18.0 PPG, 41% from beyond the arc), another offensive catalyst who has led Tennessee to a 17-0 record when he has scored at least 18 points. He’s joined by Igor Milicic Jr. (10.7 PPG) and Jordan Gainey (10.7 PPG) anchoring one of the best defenses in college basketball.

Sure, there are concerns that shouldn’t be overlooked: a 30-point loss at Florida in January, losing both games to Kentucky and a strange outing at Vanderbilt. But those games — and their two-point loss at Auburn — are the only blemishes on the résumé of a Vols team that has an eerily similar profile to the one a year ago, but this season’s crew doesn’t rely on one player the way last season’s team did. Yes, Lanier is the leader, but Zeigler is even better this season, and this group has helped Tennessee compete with the best.

Remember, Tennessee avenged its loss at Florida with a 20-point win in Gainesville in February. The Vols have similarities to last season’s squad. There is only one difference: This field might not have a team like Purdue or UConn standing in their way.